Geckie

MRNA & end of the bulls?

Short
NASDAQ:MRNA   Moderna, Inc
MRNA has had a few wild weeks going up from $120 to $170.
I believe this could be the end of the bullishness and it may do a correction.

Why do I believe this could happen?

  • MRNA hit historic resistance of $170, after hitting that mark it began dropping. This resistance seems like it can hold.
  • RSI is bounced off the 70 mark on the daily chart .
  • RSI is overbought on the 4HR chart
  • EMA's are beginning to cross over on the hour charts.

This could be a tiny correction and just bounce off $160 before continuing its path to $200 so I would keep a close eye on the stock.

What I am looking for right now is:
1st support - $160
2nd support - $139_$145
3rd support - $120
At this point MRNA going back down to $100 or even lower seems incredibly unlikely.

Moderna's earnings arent too far away so that could act as a catalyzer that will continue the growth.

In short I believe that MRNA could have hit the resistance and it will either go down to the listed supports or if it stays in these levels then it will most likely stay like this till earnings come which will tell what direction it is going to go from here.

Please comment down your ideas and thoughts on this, I would appreciate any criticism you may have on the charts and analysis, and looking forward to your comments!
I am not a financial advisor, these are my personal ideas an thoughts please do your own research before buying a stock.
Comment: As i mentioned in my analysis if MRNA start dropping, it could just go back up and stay around the $160 range. Looks like its doing that so far.
Comment: The analysis went perfect. If it holds the support it will bounce up, if not then its got a long way down.

Comments

You were right. It dropped hard and now staying around $160. Do you think it will drop more? I didn’t sell yet.
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Comment removed.
Geckie Geckie
@Geckie, Also, forgot to mention it could go to $170 level, if it bounces off of that resistance I believe it can drop. But still, I haven't seen any confirmation of this H&S forming.
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By looking at the chart, it looks like it will eventually reach to $200. I decided to hold and see. But I read several bear cases of overbought RSI just like yours. Today it broke the 1st support, do you think bear trend may continue longer?
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Geckie Piperchap
@Piperchap, I definitely believe that $200 is very possible before it does that though, I believe it could continue the bearish trend but I'd recommend watching it till the end of the week because if it goes back above $160 then I predict it will be static and it will stay the same till earnings come out as mentioned in the analysis. Although if you don't mind waiting a while and have free capital then just average down at each support if you have free cash and you should get a positive investment.

TLDR: If it continues like this then bearishness will continue and it could reach 2nd or 3rd support. Just watch out for the $160 figure, if it stays at the then I don't believe the bearish trend will contiue.

Hope this helps!
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@Geckie, Thank you very much! This is very helpful :) Where can I learn those support levels?
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Geckie Piperchap
@Piperchap, Are you referring to how I got those support levels?

If so, I've been watching MRNA since last time it was at $170 and I've taken note of where the prices seem to go horizontal for a while, where it struggles...etc.
If you look at each support and resistance I've given you can see that, at that price it's either topped out - done multiple tops or bottomed out - done multiple bottoms on that specific area.

Just gotta find at what level the price has an issue passing and what level the price cant go under, using historical data of course.
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@Geckie, Thank you! Yes, I get what you mean now. I thought I had to learn Fibonacci retracement levels to know all of that. It's stopping just below $170 again. I think MRNA hit $210 level pre-market one time, does this count to you? I mean if it goes to ATH, do you think it has more chance to go above $210 than below it (ex.$200)?
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Geckie Piperchap
@Piperchap, I believe if it reaches ATH it will probably be around earnings and only if they are good, if the earnings are good I wouldn't be surprised if it passes the ATH. If they are arent good then I think MRNA will have a hard time going past $160.

And the FIB retracement levels are great! I usually do check them just in case but when it comes to support levels that can hold more easily then I'd just look at the chart because it has historic data that can back it up.
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@Geckie, thanks!
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