NATURAL GAS-Pt.1- Correction about to complete?
Hello traders,
here is our view about natural gas.
As we can see from the monthly time frame, natgas completed an impulse after breaking a big descending triangle.
After reaching a top of 9.995, natgas created a head and shoulders pattern that coincided with a 535 structure to the downside, as showed in the main chart.
Then, wave 3 of C seems to be completed with an ending diagonal.
If the bullish macro count is in now we should go for another impulse up. Alternatively, we may get a (C) wave to complete
the monthly retracement higher than 10. In the latter case to move to 9.995 would only be a (A) cycle correction of the descent from 2005 high of 16.477.
In both cases, we expect a big buying opportunity coming soon in natural gas.
We are not taking long positions now for wave iv of C since sentiment in retail brokers is over 90% long.
When ALL the retailers are buying, who is selling to them? Who is gonna buy to actually put upward pressure on price?
This is why extreme sentiment is a contrary indicator.
We will update as soon as we see a long setup.
here is our view about natural gas.
As we can see from the monthly time frame, natgas completed an impulse after breaking a big descending triangle.
Then, wave 3 of C seems to be completed with an ending diagonal.
the monthly retracement higher than 10. In the latter case to move to 9.995 would only be a (A) cycle correction of the descent from 2005 high of 16.477.
In both cases, we expect a big buying opportunity coming soon in natural gas.
We are not taking long positions now for wave iv of C since sentiment in retail brokers is over 90% long.
When ALL the retailers are buying, who is selling to them? Who is gonna buy to actually put upward pressure on price?
This is why extreme sentiment is a contrary indicator.
We will update as soon as we see a long setup.
Trade active:
sentiment decreasing. good chunk of retailers shake out Ending diagonal for wave iii of C seems completed.
long order triggered 2.95@ stop loss already on entry
Comment:
kickd out breakeven. restriked 2.94 on 1H double bottom. sl already on entry. Better safe than sorry on the tricky devil natgas
Comment:
kicked at entry. Just observing
Trade active:
waiting for the weekly pov at 2.76
Trade active:
order triggered 2.76 at the weekly POC. stop loss on entry
Comment:
again closed at entry. patience will be needed on this. Staying out until retailer sentiment decreases more significantly
Trade active:
tried 2.73 on falling knife breakout. stop loss on entry asap
Trade closed manually:
closed 2.88 for a profit 1.5% of equity. Not willing to risk over the weekend. No need to fomo.
Comment:
Our decision to close prior the weekend payed out. Natural first targets for this wave 3 of C is 1.618 of 1 and the algo tp at the -0.236 of the whole move. Red zone on chart. Not saying we will buy there
Trade active:
red zone wicked. Long @2.471
Trade active:
stop loss on entry
