I believe we may be near a market top, if you are like me you may be wondering where to sell. This is my attempt to analyze the current moves. I do think that the stock market is nearly in danger but that being said, it is definitely not a certainty that we have hit the top. I am not counting on any new highs though because in my opinion, we have already hit the high. I am looking for a bounce upwards from here which may occur over the next couple of weeks.
In this analysis I have put some potential buy and sell areas, please see the chart. This is a 1 hour candle chart.
I do think if we make a new short term low point it puts us in the danger zone. This does not mean I am advising you to sell - or to buy at that matter. It may still bounce back up. But if we are going that low, it is seriously concerning in my opinion. That being said, buying low is always safer than buying high, right? And if we just have a quick dip into the danger zone and it bounces above, it is not so worrisome as getting a 1 day candle close inside it.
My longer term outlook for stocks is negative though. Even if we bounce back, I expect sometime this year to have a real crash, if not now. Be very careful for long positions. This is all just my opinion.
What are your thoughts? I would love to hear from you.
If you liked the analysis, please show your support by clicking like.
This is not advice to buy or to sell. You should do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
In this analysis I have put some potential buy and sell areas, please see the chart. This is a 1 hour candle chart.
I do think if we make a new short term low point it puts us in the danger zone. This does not mean I am advising you to sell - or to buy at that matter. It may still bounce back up. But if we are going that low, it is seriously concerning in my opinion. That being said, buying low is always safer than buying high, right? And if we just have a quick dip into the danger zone and it bounces above, it is not so worrisome as getting a 1 day candle close inside it.
My longer term outlook for stocks is negative though. Even if we bounce back, I expect sometime this year to have a real crash, if not now. Be very careful for long positions. This is all just my opinion.
What are your thoughts? I would love to hear from you.
If you liked the analysis, please show your support by clicking like.
This is not advice to buy or to sell. You should do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
Comment:
Movement is bearish. We are trading in the caution zone. We may still get a bounce up forming head and shoulders within 2 weeks, but be very cautious in this market. I am now having doubts about the bounce going higher than 6700 on NDX. $6600 - $6800 may be considered a sell zone if it goes there now.
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Price is back in the green box. A long position is possible in this range in the green box, but be sure to be ready for a stop loss in case we cannot break through resistance and the price fails.
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I advise extreme caution against using leveraged funds either long or short with the current market volatility. At this point I am avoiding leverage funds until the trend is more clear.
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As of April 10, the stock market is still holding up. I see only 4 possibilities of what will happen - good to be aware of different possibilities.
1. We could recover from this patch relatively soon and go on to start another bullish trend.
2. We could enter more of a horizontal trading range for a while before the market makes a larger move up or down.
3. We could move upwards and form a right shoulder before having a bigger crash.
4. We could crash sooner without making much more of a right shoulder.
As you can see, 3 out of 4 options involve possible higher prices in the short term. The stock market in the long-term perspective has a strong bullish bias and even if we do get a big crash, it more likely will look like a small dip if you zoom out on weekly view - for long-term investers- stock market hodlers. :) So, if you don't need access to your funds for 3-5 y or more, I think you do not have to trade this. That being said, in the short term of over the next 1 year - we should expect some intermittent rough patches and the price could easily go lower than current levels. Personally, I am more in favor of trying to short if we get back up to a right shoulder level.
1. We could recover from this patch relatively soon and go on to start another bullish trend.
2. We could enter more of a horizontal trading range for a while before the market makes a larger move up or down.
3. We could move upwards and form a right shoulder before having a bigger crash.
4. We could crash sooner without making much more of a right shoulder.
As you can see, 3 out of 4 options involve possible higher prices in the short term. The stock market in the long-term perspective has a strong bullish bias and even if we do get a big crash, it more likely will look like a small dip if you zoom out on weekly view - for long-term investers- stock market hodlers. :) So, if you don't need access to your funds for 3-5 y or more, I think you do not have to trade this. That being said, in the short term of over the next 1 year - we should expect some intermittent rough patches and the price could easily go lower than current levels. Personally, I am more in favor of trying to short if we get back up to a right shoulder level.
Comment:
At this point, I would like to mention of the increasing possibility of the stock market making another rally before having a big crash. I am no longer planning to short at the red zone on this chart unless there is more of a reason to. I believe there may be some more stock market upside in 2018. I am looking out for a bigger crash later this year or by Jan 2019.
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cedarfox
just now
In the short term trend up starting APRIL 3, we have done Elliot waves 1-4. I believe there will be a fifth wave - to me looks like topping out around April 25 give or take a couple of days. I do think the top there may present a possible short selling entry. I am looking for it to reach around 6900 - 7000 possibly next week. Of course no one knows for sure, but this is my target. Based on some of my time period studying, it looks like the market may trend downward after around April 26 - to estimated May 17-20. Interestingly, Bitcoin seems to be following this same trend. I expect short term market lows in the stock market and Bitcoin around May 17ish. But honestly, I don't exactly know how severe the sell of will be. Not advising you to buy or to sell, but if you were thinking to short sell the market or Bitcoin I believe there may be an opportunity approx Apr 25-26. Have a stop loss in mind in case it goes the wrong way.
just now
In the short term trend up starting APRIL 3, we have done Elliot waves 1-4. I believe there will be a fifth wave - to me looks like topping out around April 25 give or take a couple of days. I do think the top there may present a possible short selling entry. I am looking for it to reach around 6900 - 7000 possibly next week. Of course no one knows for sure, but this is my target. Based on some of my time period studying, it looks like the market may trend downward after around April 26 - to estimated May 17-20. Interestingly, Bitcoin seems to be following this same trend. I expect short term market lows in the stock market and Bitcoin around May 17ish. But honestly, I don't exactly know how severe the sell of will be. Not advising you to buy or to sell, but if you were thinking to short sell the market or Bitcoin I believe there may be an opportunity approx Apr 25-26. Have a stop loss in mind in case it goes the wrong way.
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Link to bitcoin chart
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Update - I have been tracking the trends and I have an update for the date range I am looking for a short-term top. I believe we will get a short term market top in the date range of April 25 - May 2. I am not exactly sure which day, but I am leaning more towards Friday Apr 27 or Monday April 30. After this top, there will be a stock Market decline in May. That being said, whenever this short-term sell off is over, I still think the stock market will try to rally again before 2018 is up. At this point I am not sure whether the highs later in the year will be higher or lower than the previous highs.
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Also to clarify previous comments, I do think that the upcoming short-term peak in April 25-May 2 provides a short-term shorting opportunity. Not advice to buy or to sell. Only my ideas.
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My timing was not quite right on the stock market, I am still trying to perfect this strategy. But based on a close study of the S&P 500, I think the current upward momentum of the stock market is going to take a break next week starting May 14. I expect a dip in the market soon. But not talking about end-of-the-world type crashes though. From the longer term perspective, the stock market is still bullish. But be careful, I expect we will face major stock market challenges starting sometime between October 2018 - January 2019 -- Be careful for long positions in that time range! I honestly don't know when during that time periods the stock market crash will start, but I feel quite sure that sometime between Oct 2018 - Jan 2019, the stock market will start a more significant correction
