In this analysis I have put some potential buy and sell areas, please see the chart. This is a 1 hour candle chart.
I do think if we make a new short term low point it puts us in the danger zone. This does not mean I am advising you to sell - or to buy at that matter. It may still bounce back up. But if we are going that low, it is seriously concerning in my opinion. That being said, buying low is always safer than buying high, right? And if we just have a quick dip into the danger zone and it bounces above, it is not so worrisome as getting a 1 day candle close inside it.
My longer term outlook for stocks is negative though. Even if we bounce back, I expect sometime this year to have a real crash, if not now. Be very careful for long positions. This is all just my opinion.
What are your thoughts? I would love to hear from you.
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This is not advice to buy or to sell. You should do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
1. We could recover from this patch relatively soon and go on to start another bullish trend.
2. We could enter more of a horizontal trading range for a while before the market makes a larger move up or down.
3. We could move upwards and form a right shoulder before having a bigger crash.
4. We could crash sooner without making much more of a right shoulder.
As you can see, 3 out of 4 options involve possible higher prices in the short term. The stock market in the long-term perspective has a strong bullish bias and even if we do get a big crash, it more likely will look like a small dip if you zoom out on weekly view - for long-term investers- stock market hodlers. :) So, if you don't need access to your funds for 3-5 y or more, I think you do not have to trade this. That being said, in the short term of over the next 1 year - we should expect some intermittent rough patches and the price could easily go lower than current levels. Personally, I am more in favor of trying to short if we get back up to a right shoulder level.
In the short term trend up starting APRIL 3, we have done Elliot waves 1-4. I believe there will be a fifth wave - to me looks like topping out around April 25 give or take a couple of days. I do think the top there may present a possible short selling entry. I am looking for it to reach around 6900 - 7000 possibly next week. Of course no one knows for sure, but this is my target. Based on some of my time period studying, it looks like the market may trend downward after around April 26 - to estimated May 17-20. Interestingly, Bitcoin seems to be following this same trend. I expect short term market lows in the stock market and Bitcoin around May 17ish. But honestly, I don't exactly know how severe the sell of will be. Not advising you to buy or to sell, but if you were thinking to short sell the market or Bitcoin I believe there may be an opportunity approx Apr 25-26. Have a stop loss in mind in case it goes the wrong way.