vitalalyt

Netflix - Potential for 250% Upside?

Long
NASDAQ:NFLX   Netflix, Inc.
Is there an opportunity for a good bull trend for NFLX ?

There has been a lot of discussion around NFLX lately with sharp drop in share price after the latest earnings report. And not getting much into fundamental analysis where the main message is clear - growth of subscribers and hence revenue, profits and generally margins is going to slow down. Here are few points/questions on the potential development of the price for discussion:

  • Has the market already priced this negative forecast with 70% collapse in share price?

  • Is the price fair now considering that (1) P/E is at the lowest point 19 x compared to over 70 x 2 years ago, and over 100 x 3 years ago, (2) RSI is the lowest since 2011 on the weekly timeframe?

  • Is technical analysis telling us that correction in the shape of an Expanded Flat (using Elliot Wave Analysis) is getting to completion and there is a new bull trend may be beginning soon with upside of 250% to $700?

Technical analysis remarks - this idea is based on formation of the Expanded Flat correction with 3-3-5 structure as noted in the graph:

  • First wave (zigzag) - drop in price from 21 Jun 2018
  • Second wave (zigzag) - bullish trend which is difficult to mark as an impulse, from 26 Dec 2018
  • Third wave (impulse) - a clear 5 wave decline from 17 Nov 2021

This is only one of the potential scenarios that can develop in NFLX and it is not an advice to go long All-In. There are different rules for entering position depending on your risk appetite.

Glad to hear your thoughts on the analysis and if you see the next potential scenarios through fundamental or technical lenses differently, please share.

Thanks

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