Linked below is a previous analysis on the winter contracts showing the target hit DEAD on. Being that winter is not here yet, it's very possible this pattern continues to play out to the upside.
The most recent weather outlook now points to December being the coldest month which means the January contract is in focus. On the the price action continues to knock on the ceiling of resistance with several key indicators all flashing signals.
1. Support at the 50
3. above zero with room to run
The fibbonaci extensions map out objective targets. A big enough cold blast could easily send prices to the $4.20 level by Christmas. Which happens to line up almost perfectly with a macro from the 2018 highs to the 2020 lows.
Are you yet?
Taking a step back looking at the weekly chart it looks even more bouncing off both EMAs. My buy signal will be a break above the top of this weekly candle at 3.435 with a stop below last weeks candle.
Trading is risky and should not be attempted by anyone.
+1 @ 3.445
Total NG trades on the year now stand at only $962 profit
Since unusually warmer weather is putting pressure on the market I'm waiting for a more ideal setup.
Target near the upper end.
\n1. Price failed to hold in the channel so I cut losses on that ugly candle.
\n2. The OBV is showing more volume is coming in on the sell side
\n3. Using the fib extension the next likely target down is 2.61 if sell pressure continues
\n 1. Price cracked right through the 1.618 fib
\n 2. OBV indicates selling momentum
\n 3. Watching for daily candle hammer to find support at the fib
\n 4. If weather can turn around then next move is towards $3.00
\n 5. Otherwise next stop is likely the fib below