Observe_Think_Act_Think

Trade Log NIFTY May 21

Long
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
My trades today.

1) I had entered credit spread (Sell 9000 Put / Buy 8800 Put) for 71 rs. This expired in full profit.
2) Then as NIFTY was consolidating in the range, made a risky reversal trade and quickly got out. I sold 9100 call and covered it.
3) On breakout of 9145 I was able to Sell 9200 PUT and and squared it around resitance. This turned out to be good decision as NIFTY fell after that.

I did not trade after that because NIFTY unexpectedly moved down around 2.30.

In my last post I had said

  • 1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow.
    2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD .
    3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side.
    4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level , means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally.


For point 1, NIFTY confirmed by staying in green.
For point 2, BANK NIFTY may be looking bad, but managed to form higher high and higher low for daily candle today. I maintain that I'll wait till Friday for another confirmation on pullback rally.
For point 3, intra-day bias is on bullish side till NIFTY is above 9000.
For point 4, VIX again dropped, expiry day effect as well. But still one more confirmation about 8800 support for pullback rally.

From the price action today

1. NIFTY gained, BANKNIFTY closed in red. drop in bank NIFTY sudden after 2.30.
2. VIX fell by another 8%.
3. NIFTY and BANK NIFTY both candles are weak.
4. Advance Decline ratio is 30 to 20. OK. not great.

From this action my reading for Friday.

1. I am reluctant to jump on either sides for long term future. For tomorrow, I maintain my bullish bias in NIFTY.
2. I'll change my view when NIFTY drops below 9030-9000 zone.
3. I think tomorrows day may decide the trend for next week.


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