Indices defy FTSE cues, break key levels to end in Red
,NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 06-12-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17209.05
H 17216.75
L 16891.70
C 16912.25
EOD -284.45 points / -1.65%
India VIX 20.08/+8.05%
SGX Nifty 06-12-21 @ 1940h = +22 points
FII DII = -1660 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a mild gap up and immediately sold off as FIIs were net sellers on 3-12.
It then never looked back and kept drifting downwards. It made failed attempts to stay above 17120.
Once 17100 was also broken, it made a few attempts to retest 17100 but it had become very weak by then and followed the path of least resistance and fell another 100+ points.
Nifty has thus made a lower high and a much lower low which is aot a good indication.
In comparison to Nifty, Bank Nifty was somewhat better off.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 1
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 116
Net = -115
BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 3 Lifters contributed = 0
Top 3 Draggers contributed = 265
Net = -265
POSITIVES
The only positive that I can think of is that the markets had to end at 1530h which was the EOD time. The indices would have kept leaking as there was no buying seen at any of the ;evels.
NEGATIVES
Please refer to Insights 1 and 2 as that is where the negativity gets explained.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have ended very close to their respective day low despite the close price being worked out on a weighted average basis for the last half an hour.
This is not a good sign at all.
FII DII net negative.
TRADING RANGE FOR 07 Dec 21
The way the indices have behaved today, I feel it is best not to make a false attempt to draw the lines. I would wait for a couple of days - post RBI policy to start finding the supports and resistances. Every small rise is sold into - this indicates a bearish market.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
There was only 1 Lifter for Nifty and that UPL and its contribution when rounded off to the higher round number came to 1!! This was the sense of negativity prevailing in the market. I have not seen such a situation in the last 2.5 months since I have started tracking EOD numbers.
What a strange and unfortunate incident - none of the Bank Nifty members was able to contribute in the positive today. I started tracking Lifters & Draggers of Bank Nifty recently so not sure if such a situation was encountered yesterday.
Now that the respective ATHs of the indices are far and away, this is surely not a bull market and I am not sure whether this is the beginning of the bear market.
FTSE at the open and long thereafter was up almost 1% and yet our indices ignored the positive cue. I do not know whether FIIs want to empty their portfolio by this weekend or the market is seeing something that is not yet visible or on the horizon about Omicron.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
6-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17209.05
H 17216.75
L 16891.70
C 16912.25
EOD -284.45 points / -1.65%
India VIX 20.08/+8.05%
SGX Nifty 06-12-21 @ 1940h = +22 points
FII DII = -1660 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a mild gap up and immediately sold off as FIIs were net sellers on 3-12.
It then never looked back and kept drifting downwards. It made failed attempts to stay above 17120.
Once 17100 was also broken, it made a few attempts to retest 17100 but it had become very weak by then and followed the path of least resistance and fell another 100+ points.
Nifty has thus made a lower high and a much lower low which is aot a good indication.
In comparison to Nifty, Bank Nifty was somewhat better off.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 1
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 116
Net = -115
BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 3 Lifters contributed = 0
Top 3 Draggers contributed = 265
Net = -265
POSITIVES
The only positive that I can think of is that the markets had to end at 1530h which was the EOD time. The indices would have kept leaking as there was no buying seen at any of the ;evels.
NEGATIVES
Please refer to Insights 1 and 2 as that is where the negativity gets explained.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have ended very close to their respective day low despite the close price being worked out on a weighted average basis for the last half an hour.
This is not a good sign at all.
FII DII net negative.
TRADING RANGE FOR 07 Dec 21
The way the indices have behaved today, I feel it is best not to make a false attempt to draw the lines. I would wait for a couple of days - post RBI policy to start finding the supports and resistances. Every small rise is sold into - this indicates a bearish market.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
There was only 1 Lifter for Nifty and that UPL and its contribution when rounded off to the higher round number came to 1!! This was the sense of negativity prevailing in the market. I have not seen such a situation in the last 2.5 months since I have started tracking EOD numbers.
What a strange and unfortunate incident - none of the Bank Nifty members was able to contribute in the positive today. I started tracking Lifters & Draggers of Bank Nifty recently so not sure if such a situation was encountered yesterday.
Now that the respective ATHs of the indices are far and away, this is surely not a bull market and I am not sure whether this is the beginning of the bear market.
FTSE at the open and long thereafter was up almost 1% and yet our indices ignored the positive cue. I do not know whether FIIs want to empty their portfolio by this weekend or the market is seeing something that is not yet visible or on the horizon about Omicron.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
6-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
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