NZDUSD - Wait for pullback before going long ! - Good R/R !!!

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
We got a leading diagonal as wave (1), (price goes higher but starts to overlap itself, rules for the diagonal are the same as for the impulse except wave 4 can go inside wave 1 territory)
We now should see a correction lower, wich should be approximately around 50% of the previous move.
It should be a zigzag ( ABC ) but might also be a more complex one.

In any case, look for support around 6770 (previous swing low) or 6690 - 6710, Fib 50% Retracement .
Invalidation level is at last low, 6585
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Comment: Updated count.

Note : The first count might be correct and we are in a Flat correction (wave B goes above the start of wave A)
Comment: Price falling nicely
Comment: As expected price fell beautifully below the 38.2% retracement but because I suspect we might be in wave 2 I would like a deeper correction down to the 61.8% retracement ideally.
I can also label 5 waves down meaning we made a wave A and not the whole ABC correction.
We are now in wave B in that case which should retrace about half of wave A before going lower for a wave C.
And once that is complete, only then can we start buying.
Comment: Notice, if the price goes above 1.6848, then the correction has ended and we are in wave 3.
We can then buy directly at that level, with a stop below this correction.
Comment: Updated - Looks like wave B is in place and we are currently in wave C.
I would like to see price a bit lower before buying. If it starts to go higher from here, buy on Channel break.
Comment: Going long right now. Target 1 @ 6970 Stop @ 6585. Stop will be moved whenever possible to reduce the risk.
Comment: That long position is playing out great, price rallied after the NZD CPI report was slightly better than expected.
Comment: This trade is doing good. For those of you who did not enter yet, I recommend scaling in if you have not already
Comment: Close half of your position and move Stop to 6800
Comment: We are in a tricky position. Looks like price went in a Triangle formation. Now we need to keep an eye at the marked zone around 6850. We might be in the first count were orange wave e is ending now, and price should go higher but if we are in the alternate count, then this means it's a bearish triangle and price should go down to 6795 just below our Stop, taking us out. Therefore, we need to see how price will behave while going up. If we have a clear break of the upper trend line, great. If not we have to stop the trade and take our profits around that level.

!! Because of this Triangle, we can move our Stop to 6820, because the count gets invalidated if wave e goes below wave c.

FED's rate decision is in 2hours. This might be the catalyst defining the road ahead

Comment: It's a good idea to start and scale out of this trade. Take some profits. Don't be too greedy !
Comment: Trade closed.


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