The overall decline of Brent crude benchmark prices from $86.70 per barrel to $65.72 went within the five-wave pattern. Yet, it could possibly transform to an ABC correction with an A wave that we are witnessing now, or we may have an incoming bearish trend, but we may certainly depict one more downside wave.
The first wave that finished from $86.70 to $80.20;
The second wave, which recovered to 76.4% of the Fibonacci retracement;
The third wave, which declined from $85.50 to $77.58;
The fourth wave, which rebounded to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement ;
The fifth wave, which declined from $83 per barrel to $65.72m - an extension of 2,382% to the length of the first wave.
After all five waves pass, Brent crude prices would likely be a subject of an upward correction in a zig-zag form or double zig-zag. I have reasons to consider that we have witnessed the first part of the rise as Brent crude prices have made a rebound of 50% from its projected lows. Initially I have suggested that the multi-month upward trend that has started in April 2020 would survive. However, now its support has been passed downwards and this support at $75-76 per barrel is now being tested as a new resistance. So, it is logical to expect prices to roll back from this level. And this was confirmed at the end of this week. Besides, an “evening star” pattern was formed within the last three days on the daily timeframe chart. On junior timeframes we have received a divergence between peaks at $76.24 and $76.69 per barrel.
By saying this we may suggest there is a strong technical reason for Brent crude prices to slide. The inner side of a zig-zag usually provides a decline of 50% to 61.8% to the first part of the growth. This means a scale back of Brent crude prices to $70-$71.30 per barrel. Sometimes, this decline could be less at 38.2%.
In our case we should turn to a five-hour timeframe where we have two potentially interesting zones that the price may return to. The first zone is located at $71.80-72.18 per barrel, and the second is at $69.82-71.93 per barrel. Zones have a small overlapping on $71.80-71.93, where we may expect the price to return to where it was in the first place. We may also have a steeper correction to $69.91 per barrel, but it is unlikely we will see prices below that level.
With this being said we may suggest another upside wave for Brent crude prices that would be equal to the first wave or lower by 38.2%. We should also remember that there is no five-wave pattern. So, we may have a threat of another downside wave of crude prices in late January or even February 2022.
The first wave that finished from $86.70 to $80.20;
The second wave, which recovered to 76.4% of the Fibonacci retracement;
The third wave, which declined from $85.50 to $77.58;
The fourth wave, which rebounded to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement ;
The fifth wave, which declined from $83 per barrel to $65.72m - an extension of 2,382% to the length of the first wave.
After all five waves pass, Brent crude prices would likely be a subject of an upward correction in a zig-zag form or double zig-zag. I have reasons to consider that we have witnessed the first part of the rise as Brent crude prices have made a rebound of 50% from its projected lows. Initially I have suggested that the multi-month upward trend that has started in April 2020 would survive. However, now its support has been passed downwards and this support at $75-76 per barrel is now being tested as a new resistance. So, it is logical to expect prices to roll back from this level. And this was confirmed at the end of this week. Besides, an “evening star” pattern was formed within the last three days on the daily timeframe chart. On junior timeframes we have received a divergence between peaks at $76.24 and $76.69 per barrel.
By saying this we may suggest there is a strong technical reason for Brent crude prices to slide. The inner side of a zig-zag usually provides a decline of 50% to 61.8% to the first part of the growth. This means a scale back of Brent crude prices to $70-$71.30 per barrel. Sometimes, this decline could be less at 38.2%.
In our case we should turn to a five-hour timeframe where we have two potentially interesting zones that the price may return to. The first zone is located at $71.80-72.18 per barrel, and the second is at $69.82-71.93 per barrel. Zones have a small overlapping on $71.80-71.93, where we may expect the price to return to where it was in the first place. We may also have a steeper correction to $69.91 per barrel, but it is unlikely we will see prices below that level.
With this being said we may suggest another upside wave for Brent crude prices that would be equal to the first wave or lower by 38.2%. We should also remember that there is no five-wave pattern. So, we may have a threat of another downside wave of crude prices in late January or even February 2022.
Trade closed: target reached
