PLTR – is the party over?? whats next ?
From 10$ to 33.49$ in 22 days - why ? I think its called … FOMO!
Company has big contracts with the Gov and feds, ok we know but those contracts are NOT new .. and earnings are about 9 cents a share .. 9 cents a share.
Ok lets cover company basics first to make sure we understand what all the noise is about
Palantir is a data analytics platform with one major distinction from the rest – it includes everything meaning the software is front end, back end, data base and server. It has 2 main products :
Gotham : used mainly by the government in the intelligence sector and its main purpose is to identify patterns in the data and serve it to the end user.
Foundry : Central operating system for integration of data from several platforms to one main one, and enables the end user to reach a much faster analytics point. It is used mainly in the commercial sector.
The company currently has 131 customers which are about 50% growth in one year which is impressive. The business model is to acquire new clients based on “free trail” period which is costing the company loses and slowing their growth, but once the client is in -Palantir software takes over the whole process and keeps expanding with apps, software and other add on that increase the profit margin -but this is a very slow and long process, unlike Splunk or other data and analytics software.
So back to my point - is the stock worth 30+$ ? NO its not even worth 25$, we are just seeing a severe case of market FOMO (prob has to do with the 20 mil new robin hood traders joining in 2020 – welcome guys😊), so we must stay alert because we just had the second corrective wave to 21 (62% drop from H/H), and I presume the stock will rally once more and this will all tumble down like a house of cards – stocks are valued by profits, EPS, expansion, innovation or being a company that is one step ahead and until I get a clear sign of one of those + growth from PLTR I will take the profits we made on it so far and wait for the storm to pass
Technical:
208% rise in 22 days of trading ,highest high is about 33.5$ and lowest point of the correction is 21$, the blue square(below graph) is showing us that we are between the 618 to 50 line in a bit of renewed convergence.
stock finished its 4th wave -the correction wave and we are going into the fifth wave and the final one - after that we will have some brutal correction days ahead, its important to note I put the 5th wave lower than the 3rd one which is not reasonable but because the 3rd wave was so massive I have hard time to believe the 5th wave will cross the 33$ in the upcoming month or two.
THE BOTTOM LINE : after saying some negatives on the company the technical show us a preparation for a second rally (fifth stage of the impulse wave) that will probably reach the 30 line but this time it will be a bit healthier as the stock retraced and rested. After that we will have a lot of retracement – volatility at its finest – BE CAREFULL!
Happy Xmas and trade safe!
Closer look (1H chart):
Company has big contracts with the Gov and feds, ok we know but those contracts are NOT new .. and earnings are about 9 cents a share .. 9 cents a share.
Ok lets cover company basics first to make sure we understand what all the noise is about
Palantir is a data analytics platform with one major distinction from the rest – it includes everything meaning the software is front end, back end, data base and server. It has 2 main products :
Gotham : used mainly by the government in the intelligence sector and its main purpose is to identify patterns in the data and serve it to the end user.
Foundry : Central operating system for integration of data from several platforms to one main one, and enables the end user to reach a much faster analytics point. It is used mainly in the commercial sector.
The company currently has 131 customers which are about 50% growth in one year which is impressive. The business model is to acquire new clients based on “free trail” period which is costing the company loses and slowing their growth, but once the client is in -Palantir software takes over the whole process and keeps expanding with apps, software and other add on that increase the profit margin -but this is a very slow and long process, unlike Splunk or other data and analytics software.
So back to my point - is the stock worth 30+$ ? NO its not even worth 25$, we are just seeing a severe case of market FOMO (prob has to do with the 20 mil new robin hood traders joining in 2020 – welcome guys😊), so we must stay alert because we just had the second corrective wave to 21 (62% drop from H/H), and I presume the stock will rally once more and this will all tumble down like a house of cards – stocks are valued by profits, EPS, expansion, innovation or being a company that is one step ahead and until I get a clear sign of one of those + growth from PLTR I will take the profits we made on it so far and wait for the storm to pass
Technical:
208% rise in 22 days of trading ,highest high is about 33.5$ and lowest point of the correction is 21$, the blue square(below graph) is showing us that we are between the 618 to 50 line in a bit of renewed convergence.
stock finished its 4th wave -the correction wave and we are going into the fifth wave and the final one - after that we will have some brutal correction days ahead, its important to note I put the 5th wave lower than the 3rd one which is not reasonable but because the 3rd wave was so massive I have hard time to believe the 5th wave will cross the 33$ in the upcoming month or two.
THE BOTTOM LINE : after saying some negatives on the company the technical show us a preparation for a second rally (fifth stage of the impulse wave) that will probably reach the 30 line but this time it will be a bit healthier as the stock retraced and rested. After that we will have a lot of retracement – volatility at its finest – BE CAREFULL!
Happy Xmas and trade safe!
Closer look (1H chart):
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we are going for 35 by end of next week we will update targets in the whatsapp