$QQQ: Quarterly trend expiring...
The quarterly timeframe chart had a trend signal that formed when the market broke out of the range that formed before and after the pandemic shock and subsequent lock public health, fiscal and monetary policies impacted equities. The stimulus driven bonanza ended and the market topped as the world knew the Fed would embark in quantitative tightening to normalize policy. Very curiously even perma bears and perma wrong value investors waiting for a dip got bullish, marking interesting contrarian signals for a top in late Nov 2021.
Now that the tides have turned, former winners have become the worst performers and riskiest assets to own long term due to the change in fundamental variables and the huge bubble that formed and is popping right now. The weekly $QQQ chart could flash a big weekly down trend during next week, for that reason I bot a put spread expiring on June 17 to reduce my portfolio's risk and profit, being this bear put spread OTM one of my main bearish plays I got going right now. If price stays below the weekly mode area for the whole week, the signal will confirm and we will see the Nasdaq names slide down dramatically until mid June easily. Longer term, this chart pattern points to a decline lasting well into 2024, and suggesting painful downside can happen in this ETF and associated names.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Now that the tides have turned, former winners have become the worst performers and riskiest assets to own long term due to the change in fundamental variables and the huge bubble that formed and is popping right now. The weekly $QQQ chart could flash a big weekly down trend during next week, for that reason I bot a put spread expiring on June 17 to reduce my portfolio's risk and profit, being this bear put spread OTM one of my main bearish plays I got going right now. If price stays below the weekly mode area for the whole week, the signal will confirm and we will see the Nasdaq names slide down dramatically until mid June easily. Longer term, this chart pattern points to a decline lasting well into 2024, and suggesting painful downside can happen in this ETF and associated names.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade closed manually:
I was thinking that commodities will peak and we get a recession next, once inflation peaks and bonds bottom. It may take longer, perhaps by August this year. I'm out of the $QQQ short as of yesterday, but watching it to hedge my long book again when needed. The weekly chart signal was invalidated.
Trade active:
Signal popped again this week, things look dire for the market here...
Trade closed manually:
The initial weekly down trend nailed the bottom, perfect timing. Interesting how that worked.
Comment:
Current trend is up.
