Rally done or just pullback? Maybe bear trap: too soon to short?
Caution is in order, this rally has faked us out twice already, looking near pivot, then jumping higher. Bears been expecting a double bottom formation and still are waiting.
On the daily chart Sand P has an Elliott Wave bullish impulse form developing, rather than the ABC many contributors have suggested. The segment labeled (3) is quite a bit longer than the (1). In an ABC countertrend, if these were A & C segments, we'd expect them to be nearly identical in length; these are not, and (3) has both broken above the 0.50 Fibo and exceeded the previous downtrend low price of higher order (1) from October, violating EW principles for an ABC.
If this pans out, we can expect a Fifth rally wave to touch the 0.618 Fibo. Today's price turned back from the TL reaching back to 3 Sep. A lower order TL from Nov suggests a Fifth wave could get to near 2712 price. Any positive news in a market pounded with worrisome tweets will do it. The EOD pivot on 1/22 also implies a bullish undertone.
Market index has closed the gap up from Friday's enthusiastic runup. Was this an exhaustion gap? It may have just a bit left to run, perhaps within 2-3% of the rally top now.
Still too early to short IMHO.
In my other idea on Dow I suggested the TL and Fibo both coincide at price $25040, just a bit over 2% above today's close. Let's see if the bulls can get it up there.
As always, this isn't advice, just another crackpot idea, trade at your own risk; GLTA!
PS I labeled this idea "Neutral" as it is a study of price near a pivot, which may have come, or may still be yet to come soon.
On the daily chart Sand P has an Elliott Wave bullish impulse form developing, rather than the ABC many contributors have suggested. The segment labeled (3) is quite a bit longer than the (1). In an ABC countertrend, if these were A & C segments, we'd expect them to be nearly identical in length; these are not, and (3) has both broken above the 0.50 Fibo and exceeded the previous downtrend low price of higher order (1) from October, violating EW principles for an ABC.
If this pans out, we can expect a Fifth rally wave to touch the 0.618 Fibo. Today's price turned back from the TL reaching back to 3 Sep. A lower order TL from Nov suggests a Fifth wave could get to near 2712 price. Any positive news in a market pounded with worrisome tweets will do it. The EOD pivot on 1/22 also implies a bullish undertone.
Market index has closed the gap up from Friday's enthusiastic runup. Was this an exhaustion gap? It may have just a bit left to run, perhaps within 2-3% of the rally top now.
Still too early to short IMHO.
In my other idea on Dow I suggested the TL and Fibo both coincide at price $25040, just a bit over 2% above today's close. Let's see if the bulls can get it up there.
As always, this isn't advice, just another crackpot idea, trade at your own risk; GLTA!
PS I labeled this idea "Neutral" as it is a study of price near a pivot, which may have come, or may still be yet to come soon.
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In the event this rally might have topped on 18 Jan I opened a small short position on the retracement rally in PM on Wednesday session Jan 23rd. I expect a final rally, but you never know if you get what you expect. Let's get ready. Buying a few March 260 SPY puts on every rally now. Give yourself some time to be right.
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Turning bearish. Expected retrace to TL at 2660, turned back lower.
Waiting on confirmation...
Waiting on confirmation...
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Closed the small shorts for a tidy tip. Late day price action on Jan 24th and aftermarket gains suggests the bulls are not quite finished yet, some BTFD still.
Looks like we might still get one more drive to the TL.
Looks like we might still get one more drive to the TL.
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Price trading right at the TL, briefly traded above it at open, appears to be in a descending wedge intraday; these break up. The Fibo is near 0.55 here. Likely within 1% of topping price at this level.
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Pranged off the TL twice. Might get one last try at it before the break. Exhaustion gap Fri formed an island with ?runaway gap down Mon. Wait for confirmation Tues!
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Entered short on the retracement late Mon PM with Mar 01 264 SPY puts. GLTA!
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Closed shorts on slight pullback; price behavior reeks of bullish undertone. Market waiting for Powell on 1/30; Dovish speech >>>Bullup. Waiting for Godot!
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Patiently waiting. So many gaps up to fill back down I lost track, has gapped up at least 5x in past month. We got three island tops with brief reversals followed by further upside gaps. Divergence in stoch, RSI & volume. Hammering at former support of 2802, now firm resistance. Any disappointment now will snap it off. Paradoxically, any Good News from the Great Donald might actually begin a correction- they have bought the rumor repeatedly, soon time to sell the news. inverse ETF plays: SPXS; SDOW; TECS. QQQ, SPY, DIA puts =- more risk...
