SPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash.
*50MA RESISTANCE TEST. Equity Futures, Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Index, Cryptos, DXY, US Treasuries and JPY are up while CNYUSD, GPBUSD and EURUSD are down. Equities and Commodities finished today's session higher. US September New Home Sales came -10.9% lower at 603k compared to August's 677k, and 17.6% lower than September 2021. The housing market is finally catching up to financial markets and starting to reverse course. The 20th and final GPDNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 3.1% compared to 2.9% on 10/19. As the FOMC meeting on 11/01-11/02 nears, the recent significant downturns in PMI and New Home Sales may not be enough to save the Fed from going with 100bps if US September PCE index doesn't come down equivocally. However, most speculators are still betting on a 75bps rate hike. Key Upcoming Dates: US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; Amazon Q3 and Apple Q4 Earnings 10/28; First GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/28; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price has successfully broken back into the descending channel from August 2021 and is currently trending down at ~$3830 after being rejected by the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance; it would confirm support of the channel if it were to successfully defend the lower trendline of the channel at ~$3795 as support. Volume both remains High (low) and has favored buyers for four consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3547, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 55.5 after forming a peak at 58, the next support is at 52.68. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at 96, the next support is at 76 but as long as it stays above 85 it is in the "bullish autobahn". MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the weak uptrend line from March 2020 at 10.73 resistance with no signs of trough formation. ADX continues to trend lower at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout above the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance then it will likely aim to retest the VP Point of Control at around $3938 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3795 as support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3795.
*50MA RESISTANCE TEST. Equity Futures, Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Index, Cryptos, DXY, US Treasuries and JPY are up while CNYUSD, GPBUSD and EURUSD are down. Equities and Commodities finished today's session higher. US September New Home Sales came -10.9% lower at 603k compared to August's 677k, and 17.6% lower than September 2021. The housing market is finally catching up to financial markets and starting to reverse course. The 20th and final GPDNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 3.1% compared to 2.9% on 10/19. As the FOMC meeting on 11/01-11/02 nears, the recent significant downturns in PMI and New Home Sales may not be enough to save the Fed from going with 100bps if US September PCE index doesn't come down equivocally. However, most speculators are still betting on a 75bps rate hike. Key Upcoming Dates: US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; Amazon Q3 and Apple Q4 Earnings 10/28; First GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/28; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price has successfully broken back into the descending channel from August 2021 and is currently trending down at ~$3830 after being rejected by the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance; it would confirm support of the channel if it were to successfully defend the lower trendline of the channel at ~$3795 as support. Volume both remains High (low) and has favored buyers for four consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3547, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 55.5 after forming a peak at 58, the next support is at 52.68. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at 96, the next support is at 76 but as long as it stays above 85 it is in the "bullish autobahn". MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the weak uptrend line from March 2020 at 10.73 resistance with no signs of trough formation. ADX continues to trend lower at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout above the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance then it will likely aim to retest the VP Point of Control at around $3938 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3795 as support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3795.