S&P500: Is the Recession danger over?

The S&P500 on the 1W time frame remains technically neutral (RSI = 51.005, MACD = 10.190, ADX = 35.849). Large reason why it has done so is because it has been ranging between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200 for 22 weeks (154 days). That is a significant period that isn't that indicative of a bottom formation. There is still a large portion (could even be the majority) of market participants that believe we haven't skipped the danger of an even longer Recession.

What better way to look at it than compare the index with the last Recession, the subprime mortgage on in 2007-2008. We see that for some period of time, that Recession traded also between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200, while also breaking shortly over the LH trend-line of the Cycle. It then started to decline aggressively on a weekly pace under the 1W MA200, something we haven't (yet) seen today, especially with the last two 1W candles being green. Also the MACD is now trading upwards after a Double Bottom while in 2008 it traded downwards.

Bottom-line, it is more likely that the danger of a Recession is over but a closing over the 1W MA100 would be ideal to confirm that. What do you think?


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