Thinking to buy the dip? Look at the 100 years channel...
Since 1929 the S&P500 climbed 3 times above the resistance of his 100 years channel.
The first one was just before the 1397 recession, the second one was for the dot-com bubble, and the third one was... 18 months ago!
Each time this high was followed by a crash, and a new bull market began only after the lower band of the RSI was touched.
Jeremy Grantham (the most famous worldwide bubble specialist) is talking about a "supperbubble".
He is known for having accurately predicted the Japan bubble in the 1980', the dot-com era and the mortgage crisis. Making money when others were panicking.
The overvaluation of the stock market is well seen when looking at the Nasdaq100 35 years channel:
Btw the Dow Jones Composite index is still in his channel.
Hence, the bubble seams to be mostly a tech bubble.
You will find right below the words of J. Grantham, speaking about his "superbubble" and the bull market of June-August 2022.
"One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst,"
"This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern."
"My bet is that we're going to have a fairly tough time of it economically and financially before this is washed through the system. What I don't know is: Does that get out of hand like it did in the '30s, is it pretty well contained as it was in 2000, or is it somewhere in the middle? The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time. But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January."
And if you want to read even more, click on this link: https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/dan-niles-satori-fund-gambling-apple-stocks-51662069936
Some bulls are currently looking at the bullish cross between the 100MA and the 50MA. Daydreaming, saying that it would be one of the most bullish sign ever.
Forgetting that this cross is also found right in the middle of the dot-com bubble crash and the mortgage crisis crash.
To plot these charts yourself -> use a month period and click on "log" (at the bottom right) to be in "log scale".
By the way I am not currently shorting the Nasdaq100. I am back in technical analysis since only the beginning of august, and I need more key elements to open new positions.
I will keep you in touch when I will open its! ;)
The first one was just before the 1397 recession, the second one was for the dot-com bubble, and the third one was... 18 months ago!
Each time this high was followed by a crash, and a new bull market began only after the lower band of the RSI was touched.
Jeremy Grantham (the most famous worldwide bubble specialist) is talking about a "supperbubble".
He is known for having accurately predicted the Japan bubble in the 1980', the dot-com era and the mortgage crisis. Making money when others were panicking.
The overvaluation of the stock market is well seen when looking at the Nasdaq100 35 years channel:
Btw the Dow Jones Composite index is still in his channel.
Hence, the bubble seams to be mostly a tech bubble.
You will find right below the words of J. Grantham, speaking about his "superbubble" and the bull market of June-August 2022.
"One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst,"
"This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern."
"My bet is that we're going to have a fairly tough time of it economically and financially before this is washed through the system. What I don't know is: Does that get out of hand like it did in the '30s, is it pretty well contained as it was in 2000, or is it somewhere in the middle? The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time. But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January."
And if you want to read even more, click on this link: https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/dan-niles-satori-fund-gambling-apple-stocks-51662069936
Some bulls are currently looking at the bullish cross between the 100MA and the 50MA. Daydreaming, saying that it would be one of the most bullish sign ever.
Forgetting that this cross is also found right in the middle of the dot-com bubble crash and the mortgage crisis crash.
To plot these charts yourself -> use a month period and click on "log" (at the bottom right) to be in "log scale".
By the way I am not currently shorting the Nasdaq100. I am back in technical analysis since only the beginning of august, and I need more key elements to open new positions.
I will keep you in touch when I will open its! ;)