"When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the fourth living creature saying, “Come!” Behold, I saw a horse, pale greenish gray. The name of the one riding on it was Death"
Hello, and welcome to the Apocalypse :D
With SPY/SPX recent moves, I thought I'd scan history to see if there's anything unique about the pattern we see today. I wasn't disappointed.
The best way I can describe it so far is a decline + 3 bear market rallies that I highlight here (weekly charts):
This pattern has been present 5 other times in history, 4 of which ended in declines ranging from -37% to -56%. After the 3rd bear market rally, a 4th comes. The 4th horseman of the apocalypse signaling the end is nigh!
Keep in mind that recognizing patterns has an element of bias to it and these were all identified to the best of my abilities.
Hmmmmmm...
1966
23% move down from the highs
238 days from top to bottom
1968
37% move down from the highs
532 days from top to bottom
1973
50% move down from the highs
630 days from top to bottom
2000
50% move down from the highs
693 days from top to bottom
2007
56% move down from the highs
511 days from top to bottom
Another interesting thing to note is that they seem to happen in sets of 2 with the second downturn moving 10%-13% lower than the first low.
1968-1974
2000-2009
If this pattern does in fact play out, it would mean this chart can guide you into the future of when to buy for the next bull market, and when to sell before the next decline. What's also interesting to take note of is that although our current issues of inflation are more related to the 70s than 2000-08, the market movements are more in line with the speed of 2000-08. 68-73 slowly fell from the top and then quickly fell to the bottom whereas 00-08 quickly fell from the top and slowly fell towards the bottom (time wise). For that reason, most of my predictions are based on 00-08.
Lastly I'll post my projection for the end of this recession. You can look at my previous post which mapped the exact moves of 00 and 08 based on time and percentage.
Hello, and welcome to the Apocalypse :D
With SPY/SPX recent moves, I thought I'd scan history to see if there's anything unique about the pattern we see today. I wasn't disappointed.
The best way I can describe it so far is a decline + 3 bear market rallies that I highlight here (weekly charts):
This pattern has been present 5 other times in history, 4 of which ended in declines ranging from -37% to -56%. After the 3rd bear market rally, a 4th comes. The 4th horseman of the apocalypse signaling the end is nigh!
Keep in mind that recognizing patterns has an element of bias to it and these were all identified to the best of my abilities.
Hmmmmmm...
1966
23% move down from the highs
238 days from top to bottom
1968
37% move down from the highs
532 days from top to bottom
1973
50% move down from the highs
630 days from top to bottom
2000
50% move down from the highs
693 days from top to bottom
2007
56% move down from the highs
511 days from top to bottom
Another interesting thing to note is that they seem to happen in sets of 2 with the second downturn moving 10%-13% lower than the first low.
1968-1974
2000-2009
If this pattern does in fact play out, it would mean this chart can guide you into the future of when to buy for the next bull market, and when to sell before the next decline. What's also interesting to take note of is that although our current issues of inflation are more related to the 70s than 2000-08, the market movements are more in line with the speed of 2000-08. 68-73 slowly fell from the top and then quickly fell to the bottom whereas 00-08 quickly fell from the top and slowly fell towards the bottom (time wise). For that reason, most of my predictions are based on 00-08.
Lastly I'll post my projection for the end of this recession. You can look at my previous post which mapped the exact moves of 00 and 08 based on time and percentage.
Comment:
As a disclaimer, I have several put positions that I've held since mid August which I've been adding to.
