This post marks about my 1 year anniversary on Tradingview and my first year of crypto trading. I have spent over 80% of the last year analysing charts, researching projects and learning the ins and outs of trading... It's been a wild ride! From catching the Ethereum and Bitcoin tops back in April and May and shorting till the depths of fear and capitulation to the resurgence of crypto towards the upthrust after distribution back in November 2021. It was a steep learning curve but I've made to become a profitable trader and paying my bills from these magic internet currencies - and above all; I think it's a lot of fun!
Reflecting on everything I've learned, I think I can summarize it to one rule and one rule only:
"Get in on time and get out on time."
The time to get out came for me back in early December, when I launched my first warning for a potential bear market. A scenario that seems to unfold right in front of our eyes at this very moment. If you cut through the noise and the hype, you see a clear picture:
We have been in a mega bull market since December 2018 and we were catapulted off the March 2020 spring. Monetary expansion and the shift towards the fourth industrial revolution - where data will be the new oil - have created the reappearance of crypto on the mainstage. The future for the crypto industry is bright and we are onto the next stage of mass adoption for the next decade to come. However technology changes fast. What is obvious today, might be irrelevant tomorrow. The transition towards day to day use cases and adoption of the "no-coiners" has yet to come to fruition. A narrative for the future.
The narrative of today is exhaustion. The central banks have exhausted their ability for monetary expansion and have been hit with record inflation, the corporations have exhausted any more reason for higher valuations - many CEO's have jumped ship at all time highs - retail exhausted their bank accounts, the dips have been bought and thus institutions have exhausted their exit liquidity. Market makers were not shy in their mark up phase and they won't be shy in their mark down phase. They have come prepared, striking everyone at surprise - again. Currently, there is nothing left for them than the play the dirty game and chop around to hunt for liquidity before they continue the trend.
With the surprise pump of over 100% on European yields, the quarterly interest hikes and the tapering of the federal reserve as well as the peak formations on most stocks, indexes and cryptocurrencies, uncertainty and disbelief are here. Where the world's richest CEO has already jumped ship together with many of his fellow competitors, we are waiting for who is next - the market is not waiting for; if the trigger gets pulled, but when - who will pull the trigger? Who is the first to get a margin call? What will Michael Saylor do when Bitcoin creeps towards his average buy in price? How will investors react when yearly reports fall behind expectations? And how do governments and central banks manage their balances in a economy floating on depth and inflation?
As always in trading, we don't know anything for sure but what we do know is that the market is hot - and historically speaking - it is not a bad time for a cool off period. So, ask yourself: "is it a good time to get in or to get out?" You will know the answer...
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Reflecting on everything I've learned, I think I can summarize it to one rule and one rule only:
"Get in on time and get out on time."
The time to get out came for me back in early December, when I launched my first warning for a potential bear market. A scenario that seems to unfold right in front of our eyes at this very moment. If you cut through the noise and the hype, you see a clear picture:
We have been in a mega bull market since December 2018 and we were catapulted off the March 2020 spring. Monetary expansion and the shift towards the fourth industrial revolution - where data will be the new oil - have created the reappearance of crypto on the mainstage. The future for the crypto industry is bright and we are onto the next stage of mass adoption for the next decade to come. However technology changes fast. What is obvious today, might be irrelevant tomorrow. The transition towards day to day use cases and adoption of the "no-coiners" has yet to come to fruition. A narrative for the future.
The narrative of today is exhaustion. The central banks have exhausted their ability for monetary expansion and have been hit with record inflation, the corporations have exhausted any more reason for higher valuations - many CEO's have jumped ship at all time highs - retail exhausted their bank accounts, the dips have been bought and thus institutions have exhausted their exit liquidity. Market makers were not shy in their mark up phase and they won't be shy in their mark down phase. They have come prepared, striking everyone at surprise - again. Currently, there is nothing left for them than the play the dirty game and chop around to hunt for liquidity before they continue the trend.
With the surprise pump of over 100% on European yields, the quarterly interest hikes and the tapering of the federal reserve as well as the peak formations on most stocks, indexes and cryptocurrencies, uncertainty and disbelief are here. Where the world's richest CEO has already jumped ship together with many of his fellow competitors, we are waiting for who is next - the market is not waiting for; if the trigger gets pulled, but when - who will pull the trigger? Who is the first to get a margin call? What will Michael Saylor do when Bitcoin creeps towards his average buy in price? How will investors react when yearly reports fall behind expectations? And how do governments and central banks manage their balances in a economy floating on depth and inflation?
As always in trading, we don't know anything for sure but what we do know is that the market is hot - and historically speaking - it is not a bad time for a cool off period. So, ask yourself: "is it a good time to get in or to get out?" You will know the answer...
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Comment:
There you go, just a few hours later and we closed below 120 EMA for the first time since the 28th of October, 2020. Back then we closed just 5 points below and pushed back up straight away, today thats 14 points. We can give it a week to reclaim the 120 EMA and the bull market support band close the monthly candle above it. This scenario could invalidate the Wyckoff scheme anything less than that could lead us towards phase E and a possible 20% correction to the top of our last double bottom at the 3500 zone - however the first target would be 4000 and we need to evaluate the trend there.
Comment:
*auto correct typo: depth = debt
Comment:
SOW hit!
Important update on Twitter on 10x Club, a weekly newsletter curated by me containing research & analytics on the crypto market & the amazing opportunities during the bear market - Check my Twitter or website link below:
