Series 2 of 4: Can Turtles be Successful Traders Once Again?
If you’re reading this post, and have not read the first part, please do so by clicking the link below.
So, I want to jump right into things.
In the first post, I included a daily chart of Solana (more on why I included that particular chart in a moment). As I became more experienced and learned about things like risk management (BORING.....), and account drawdowns (EVEN MORE BORING....)I realized the thing I feared most about the Richard Dennis story was after taking $5k and turning into $100M, he lost the vast majority of it during the crash of 1987.
As a trader, I have to be honest, that made me question whether trading was for me or not. I cannot over emphasize the statistical probability of anyone taking $5k and turning into a $100M is an integer of 1. BUT THEN TO LOST MOST OF IT....SCARY!!!! It's enough of make anyone question why go through the stress. Why not just get a job and work 9-5 and take my chips off the table every 2 weeks in the form of a paycheck? I said in the series 1 post...I was hooked. After hearing about someone who could take $5k and turn it into $150M...there was no other life for me. But I had to address the obvious concerns of the Richard Dennis example. Why? Because if you ask my old time followers they will say my favorite movie is Chronicles of Riddick. In the movie, YOU KEEP WHAT YOU KILL.
Can I get an amen Vin Diesel fans?
I did not want to do all the work, only to loose most of it. Then I was introduced to the teachings of RN Elliott and all that changed. You see, if Dennis had rigorously applied EWT to his trading strategy he would have had prior knowledge of the 1987 crash. Now if you’re reading this and don’t follow me, you’re probably laughing and saying, there is no one analytical application that is the panacea. I agree. That’s why it pays to have a risk management scenario on every trade, and also track account drawdown so you can measure your exposure to risk even on the winning trades. But back to your skepticism. Enter, the attached 150-year chart of the SPX I posted above. This chart states that in 2023-2025 timeframe we’re about to get a Richard Dennis event in the US markets. You see the next high in the SPX will top out in the 5200-6000 range. I cannot get more detailed areas than that right now until we breach 4808.25. At this next topping range we will have completed our SUPERCYCLE WAVE III. Since we can count, we know IV comes after III. I am not about to teach you Elliott Wave Theory here, but let’s just say the US Market could lose up to 50% of its entire market capitalization during that period and it could also take up to 10 years to complete.
Sometime back I posted the above chart to my followers and stated this may be the most important chart you’ll ever see in your lifetime. Think about it. Wave IV could take us to the mid 2030’s. That could be 10 years of negative returns, and the chart could outlive some of you reading this post right now.
However, I included the Solana chart in the series 1 post of this now 4-part series, for a reason. I think Solana will be one of the best long-term investments between now and 2025. Which brings me to the topic of trade strategy. Traders can be both conservative and risk takers. They can be trend traders and day traders. I choose not to classify myself as one or other but if I had to, I tend to favor being a trend trader. So my trading strategy boils down to a 3-front advance.
My Trade Strategy:
Trend Trades
60% of my account is dedicated to trend trades. These trades tend to deliver 100% to 1000% over years. Solana is about to become one of my trend trade strategic components.
Uncovered Option Sales
30% of my account activity is associated with selling premium. These are my favorites trades. I am approaching an area in the SPX we’re I’ll sell uncovered puts on the futures and that trade should net me 80% by May of 2023 (More on that another time).
Scalps – Short Term Trades
Many of trades I share with my followers come out of this batch. Why? Followers want immediate gratification, and I have a portion of my account dedicated to just that.
I will end on this note and follow up with more aspects of my trading plan later. Their are a lot of Trading View members post about the importance of a trading plan. I think in some small measure I have earned the trust of my followers to the point they know I know what I'm talking about. If you're still skeptical about how price can be forecasted in advance of time, news, events, etc. Some some time reading my past posts. I think my followers will say, I put myself out there more so than most. I hope to continue this series soon.
Best to all,
Chris
So, I want to jump right into things.
In the first post, I included a daily chart of Solana (more on why I included that particular chart in a moment). As I became more experienced and learned about things like risk management (BORING.....), and account drawdowns (EVEN MORE BORING....)I realized the thing I feared most about the Richard Dennis story was after taking $5k and turning into $100M, he lost the vast majority of it during the crash of 1987.
As a trader, I have to be honest, that made me question whether trading was for me or not. I cannot over emphasize the statistical probability of anyone taking $5k and turning into a $100M is an integer of 1. BUT THEN TO LOST MOST OF IT....SCARY!!!! It's enough of make anyone question why go through the stress. Why not just get a job and work 9-5 and take my chips off the table every 2 weeks in the form of a paycheck? I said in the series 1 post...I was hooked. After hearing about someone who could take $5k and turn it into $150M...there was no other life for me. But I had to address the obvious concerns of the Richard Dennis example. Why? Because if you ask my old time followers they will say my favorite movie is Chronicles of Riddick. In the movie, YOU KEEP WHAT YOU KILL.
Can I get an amen Vin Diesel fans?
I did not want to do all the work, only to loose most of it. Then I was introduced to the teachings of RN Elliott and all that changed. You see, if Dennis had rigorously applied EWT to his trading strategy he would have had prior knowledge of the 1987 crash. Now if you’re reading this and don’t follow me, you’re probably laughing and saying, there is no one analytical application that is the panacea. I agree. That’s why it pays to have a risk management scenario on every trade, and also track account drawdown so you can measure your exposure to risk even on the winning trades. But back to your skepticism. Enter, the attached 150-year chart of the SPX I posted above. This chart states that in 2023-2025 timeframe we’re about to get a Richard Dennis event in the US markets. You see the next high in the SPX will top out in the 5200-6000 range. I cannot get more detailed areas than that right now until we breach 4808.25. At this next topping range we will have completed our SUPERCYCLE WAVE III. Since we can count, we know IV comes after III. I am not about to teach you Elliott Wave Theory here, but let’s just say the US Market could lose up to 50% of its entire market capitalization during that period and it could also take up to 10 years to complete.
Sometime back I posted the above chart to my followers and stated this may be the most important chart you’ll ever see in your lifetime. Think about it. Wave IV could take us to the mid 2030’s. That could be 10 years of negative returns, and the chart could outlive some of you reading this post right now.
However, I included the Solana chart in the series 1 post of this now 4-part series, for a reason. I think Solana will be one of the best long-term investments between now and 2025. Which brings me to the topic of trade strategy. Traders can be both conservative and risk takers. They can be trend traders and day traders. I choose not to classify myself as one or other but if I had to, I tend to favor being a trend trader. So my trading strategy boils down to a 3-front advance.
My Trade Strategy:
Trend Trades
60% of my account is dedicated to trend trades. These trades tend to deliver 100% to 1000% over years. Solana is about to become one of my trend trade strategic components.
Uncovered Option Sales
30% of my account activity is associated with selling premium. These are my favorites trades. I am approaching an area in the SPX we’re I’ll sell uncovered puts on the futures and that trade should net me 80% by May of 2023 (More on that another time).
Scalps – Short Term Trades
Many of trades I share with my followers come out of this batch. Why? Followers want immediate gratification, and I have a portion of my account dedicated to just that.
I will end on this note and follow up with more aspects of my trading plan later. Their are a lot of Trading View members post about the importance of a trading plan. I think in some small measure I have earned the trust of my followers to the point they know I know what I'm talking about. If you're still skeptical about how price can be forecasted in advance of time, news, events, etc. Some some time reading my past posts. I think my followers will say, I put myself out there more so than most. I hope to continue this series soon.
Best to all,
Chris
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