Down Side Playing Out?

After yesterday's candle, downside is looking more probable now. Bulls had a chance to stay above the 20 EMA, but were not successful. At the time of writing, Futures are trading at about 3645ish down 0.82%. Do we visit 3600 today? May 3580? We could dip down to 3570 and recover by EOD to finish back at 3645 or 3600. That would tell me that the market wants to wait for earnings next week before it continues to sell more. The last 4 or 5 Fridays we've had, were all down days. So, will today be different? The Purple line is the Feb. 20th 2020 high right before we had the COVID drop. That is one of my target points that I would anticipate to come by next week. Possibly by the beginning of November. Next week could give us a clearer picture as to what's to come.

At the beginning of the month, I thought we were going to come down hard to 3400 fast. But after watching what's been happening the last couple weeks, this is looking more like a slow grind down to 3400. Yesterday I said that we could finish the year at around 3600ish, after our Santa Clause Rally. How? I looked at the monthly chart, and as of now, it's a DOJI. So let's say we finish the month at 3400. That would give us a similar candle like we had in August. Then look how September played out. If we close the month at 3400ish, and volatility continues to creep up, then 2900 is a possibility late November or maybe even beginning of December? That would be more enticing for a Santa Clause Rally come the start of December. Again, I'd need to see the VIX get between 40-50 first before I consider any upside in the market. Be patient, react, trade the market in front of you and stay disciplined. Happy trading everyone!