Recession is Coming? A deeper SPX analysis w/ Spectro™ M
This study uses Spectro™ M
Hey guys, Specter here, and this is a nice and controversial topic that I'll enjoy spending my time writing such a big public report. Plus, I love seeing some conflict in the comment area.
The first premise; basically, I only trade in general using my Spectro™ M indicator and I like to keep things as simple as possible, so we have to walk around some of the features displayed on the chart otherwise you understand much.
The blue background means a reversal zone. As you can see it has been popping up a lot lately, and if you observe past data you will see there's only so much it happens before a reversal of some sort.
The big scary "RED TRIPLE TRIANGLES" mean that Spectro™ M confirmed a reversal consensus on more than 20 indicators.
Since Spectro™ M is using the conservative version of the X Confirmations(the scary triangles) so it checks all the 20 indicators and if they agree with each other it will be displayed on the screen.
So whatever you use, RSI, STOCH, DPO, CCI, MFI, OBV...whatever, it's all in there and they are all saying: Yo! It's oversold.
As you can see it predicts reversals before they happen with a high precision.
Plus, we can see a possible double top coming, another good reason to pay attention. My double top numbers show close to 60% precision rate over 10 years of trading.
If you paid attention, there's a reason I said reversal and not correction and why I used the word recession.
Let's zoom out and analyze the bigger picture, take a look at NASDAQ, DOW30, NIKKEI225, DAX or FTSE100 - just those one featured by Tradingview.
For those who have no idea what those are, those are basically an average of the WHOLE industry of a country, SP500, NASDAQ and DOW30 are americans, NIKKEI225 belongs to Japan and FTSE100 belongs to UK.
If you analyze all of those you will notice they are all kind of topping - that's scary.
Plus after 2008, we've been pretty much on an insane ride up, no major corrections.
Going a little philosophical: some believe that the market works in cycles and we are supposed to see corrections after a certain time like 7 or 8 years, it all depends on what book you read. What I'm trying to say is that we're 10 years away from 2008 and still no correction.
You don't have to believe me, but you really fucking should believe in Ray Dalio, if you don't know who he is - you sure as hell should if you're in this game (I recommend the book Principles wrote by him).
I won't get in details but he ran one of the most successful hedge funds of this era and predicted the 2008 crisis and he wrote a BADASS report about it which he was kind enough to translate it to this video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAI...
So I'm just saying...
I really wanted to diversify(and actually have some fun building because I think real state sucks as an investment) buying property and the very reason I'm renting now and not buying is that I'm afraid of that correction.
Also another food for the thought, there's this amazing article wrote in 1996 by John Rothchild:
WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW?
This article presented me one of the most reliable indicators I use, the "shoeshine" guy. It could be your taxi driver or your barber - for me was both.
Not enough space so let's carry this on to the updates.
Liked it? Give it a shot at, it's really affordable - you wouldn't believe if I told you: hypester.org/spectro-indicator/
Hey guys, Specter here, and this is a nice and controversial topic that I'll enjoy spending my time writing such a big public report. Plus, I love seeing some conflict in the comment area.
The first premise; basically, I only trade in general using my Spectro™ M indicator and I like to keep things as simple as possible, so we have to walk around some of the features displayed on the chart otherwise you understand much.
The blue background means a reversal zone. As you can see it has been popping up a lot lately, and if you observe past data you will see there's only so much it happens before a reversal of some sort.
The big scary "RED TRIPLE TRIANGLES" mean that Spectro™ M confirmed a reversal consensus on more than 20 indicators.
Since Spectro™ M is using the conservative version of the X Confirmations(the scary triangles) so it checks all the 20 indicators and if they agree with each other it will be displayed on the screen.
So whatever you use, RSI, STOCH, DPO, CCI, MFI, OBV...whatever, it's all in there and they are all saying: Yo! It's oversold.
As you can see it predicts reversals before they happen with a high precision.
Plus, we can see a possible double top coming, another good reason to pay attention. My double top numbers show close to 60% precision rate over 10 years of trading.
If you paid attention, there's a reason I said reversal and not correction and why I used the word recession.
Let's zoom out and analyze the bigger picture, take a look at NASDAQ, DOW30, NIKKEI225, DAX or FTSE100 - just those one featured by Tradingview.
For those who have no idea what those are, those are basically an average of the WHOLE industry of a country, SP500, NASDAQ and DOW30 are americans, NIKKEI225 belongs to Japan and FTSE100 belongs to UK.
If you analyze all of those you will notice they are all kind of topping - that's scary.
Plus after 2008, we've been pretty much on an insane ride up, no major corrections.
Going a little philosophical: some believe that the market works in cycles and we are supposed to see corrections after a certain time like 7 or 8 years, it all depends on what book you read. What I'm trying to say is that we're 10 years away from 2008 and still no correction.
You don't have to believe me, but you really fucking should believe in Ray Dalio, if you don't know who he is - you sure as hell should if you're in this game (I recommend the book Principles wrote by him).
I won't get in details but he ran one of the most successful hedge funds of this era and predicted the 2008 crisis and he wrote a BADASS report about it which he was kind enough to translate it to this video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAI...
So I'm just saying...
I really wanted to diversify(and actually have some fun building because I think real state sucks as an investment) buying property and the very reason I'm renting now and not buying is that I'm afraid of that correction.
Also another food for the thought, there's this amazing article wrote in 1996 by John Rothchild:
WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW?
This article presented me one of the most reliable indicators I use, the "shoeshine" guy. It could be your taxi driver or your barber - for me was both.
Not enough space so let's carry this on to the updates.
Liked it? Give it a shot at, it's really affordable - you wouldn't believe if I told you: hypester.org/spectro-indicator/
Comment:
The reason I said that is because the real state agents, loan officers, businessman are all complaining about high prices and high interest rates, which the banks have been raising lately - another indicator that they are adjusting the CREDIT:DEBT ratio.
Those are the macro-economy shoeshine guys and there are quite a few omens confirming this possible recession.
It's hard to predict such a move with precision considering the number of variables that affect the global economy.
But the goal of this study was to show how simple systems like Spectro™ M and some street awareness can go a LONG WAY!
Keep it simple, keep it real and above all keep calm & rational.
Those are the macro-economy shoeshine guys and there are quite a few omens confirming this possible recession.
It's hard to predict such a move with precision considering the number of variables that affect the global economy.
But the goal of this study was to show how simple systems like Spectro™ M and some street awareness can go a LONG WAY!
Keep it simple, keep it real and above all keep calm & rational.
I don't know if you're into cryptocurrency, but as most of you know, hopefully, BTCUSD reached a sky-high of 20k before correcting to 6k. I sold out 100% of all my crypto portfolio around 19k, you know why?
First, because I'm not greedy and I got in at 2k or something. Second, because I was going to cut my hair and the taxi driver asked me what I did for a living and I was more than 50% in with my portfolio in crypto so we ended up talking about bitcoin. The taxi driver had a couple which he just bought, sold a car to do it.
When I arrived at my barber, he knows me very well, he said he sold a small property he had to also buy BTC.
I was happy with my haircut and right after I hopped in the uber ride, I sold all my fucking crypto positions from my phone. I just dumped all of it, fuck the price. it was around 18-20k, my avg price was around 19k.
One week after that well, you all know it.
To be continued...