There is so much fear in the market right now, in the past I presented a few bullish analysis showing that we may have bottomed and a bullish megaphone pattern. In this idea, I am presenting data that goes back all the way to 1964 which tells us that the trend is up.
looking at the 6month chart we can see that from 1964-1974 we had a side ways action (lost decade). Once we broke that the market went on a meteoric rise before we got rejected at the 4.618 Fibonacci but ended up rallying to the 23.1618. We then had another sideways actions from 1999 to 2009 (another lost decade) before we got rejected at the 4.618 again while the candles are very similar. Its fascinating how history can repeat it self.
So to summarize from 1964-1974 we had a 23.1618 that led to the 1999-2009 lost decade. Since 2009 we are in another extension and like the last extension we are being stopped at the 4.618 extension. While there are so many narratives out there, the data does not lie and seems to point that we are only repeating history. Will we continue to the 23.1618? I believe we will.
Note: the 1964-1974 and 1999-2009 where both bullish megaphone pattern.
Please like this post if you find this research helpful as it take a lot of time to put together.
Please do your DD as this is not a financial advice.
looking at the 6month chart we can see that from 1964-1974 we had a side ways action (lost decade). Once we broke that the market went on a meteoric rise before we got rejected at the 4.618 Fibonacci but ended up rallying to the 23.1618. We then had another sideways actions from 1999 to 2009 (another lost decade) before we got rejected at the 4.618 again while the candles are very similar. Its fascinating how history can repeat it self.
So to summarize from 1964-1974 we had a 23.1618 that led to the 1999-2009 lost decade. Since 2009 we are in another extension and like the last extension we are being stopped at the 4.618 extension. While there are so many narratives out there, the data does not lie and seems to point that we are only repeating history. Will we continue to the 23.1618? I believe we will.
Note: the 1964-1974 and 1999-2009 where both bullish megaphone pattern.
Please like this post if you find this research helpful as it take a lot of time to put together.
Please do your DD as this is not a financial advice.
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For contex, you are here on the weekly
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on monthly
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Lets see how the week plays out with CPI, and Silicon valley bank. Will the Fed blink?
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The US Federal Reserve will hold a closed-door emergency meeting on Monday of the Board of Governors amid the fallout of the Silicon Valley Bank.
Will the Fed blink?
Will the Fed blink?
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History repeating like clock work?
1988 Fed action that saved the market
On the morning of October 20, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan made a brief statement: "The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the Nation's central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system"
2023 Fed action that could save the market?
the Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors.
1988 Fed action that saved the market
On the morning of October 20, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan made a brief statement: "The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the Nation's central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system"
2023 Fed action that could save the market?
the Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors.
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Crazy that we keep following 1987-1988
CNBC 'The yield has fallen 100 basis points, or a full percentage point, since Wednesday, marking the largest three-day decline since Oct. 22, 1987, when the yield fell 117 basis points. That move followed the Oct. 19, 1987 stock market crash — known as “Black Monday” in which the S&P 500 plunged 20% for its worst one-day drop"
CNBC 'The yield has fallen 100 basis points, or a full percentage point, since Wednesday, marking the largest three-day decline since Oct. 22, 1987, when the yield fell 117 basis points. That move followed the Oct. 19, 1987 stock market crash — known as “Black Monday” in which the S&P 500 plunged 20% for its worst one-day drop"
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Ignore the noise and follow the data.
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Copied the 1988 fractal. Slow grind to new top, no more easy money.
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Finally a close above
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I have learned over time to look at the facts rather than give priority to our emotions. I think we are on our way to SPY 21400 before any major crash.
