Whenever this occurs, it signals the bottom of the market.
Whenever this occurs, it signals the bottom of the market.
In this weekly chart, the blue line represents the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the black line represents the 100 SMA. As we can see the 50 has inverted the 100. Whenever the 50 crosses below the 100 on the weekly chart and then price moves above the 50, the market doesn't set a new low until a new high is established this has happened 13 times in the past (now the 14th time). The only exception to this was in March of 2002, where the market failed to hold three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA. If you are wondering, last weeks close marked three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA, which now means we have a greater than 92% chance that the market has indeed bottomed.
To summarize
This has happened 13 times in the recorded chart data we have and 12 out of those times the market had bottomed.
12 times out of the 12 times we had closed above the 50 for three consecutive weeks the market had bottomed.
Right now we are in the 14th time and we have closed 3 consecutive weeks above the 50SMA. If we set a new low before a new high, this will be the first time ever after closing three weeks above the 50 SMA
I have presented the information for all the times this has happened in history, and you can also verify it. In one of my previous ideas, I mentioned we were back testing a Bullish Megaphone pattern and that we should hold there, which we have done since then (see the link below)."
Please like if you find it useful
Please note this is not a financial advice.
In this weekly chart, the blue line represents the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the black line represents the 100 SMA. As we can see the 50 has inverted the 100. Whenever the 50 crosses below the 100 on the weekly chart and then price moves above the 50, the market doesn't set a new low until a new high is established this has happened 13 times in the past (now the 14th time). The only exception to this was in March of 2002, where the market failed to hold three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA. If you are wondering, last weeks close marked three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA, which now means we have a greater than 92% chance that the market has indeed bottomed.
To summarize
This has happened 13 times in the recorded chart data we have and 12 out of those times the market had bottomed.
12 times out of the 12 times we had closed above the 50 for three consecutive weeks the market had bottomed.
Right now we are in the 14th time and we have closed 3 consecutive weeks above the 50SMA. If we set a new low before a new high, this will be the first time ever after closing three weeks above the 50 SMA
I have presented the information for all the times this has happened in history, and you can also verify it. In one of my previous ideas, I mentioned we were back testing a Bullish Megaphone pattern and that we should hold there, which we have done since then (see the link below)."
Please like if you find it useful
Please note this is not a financial advice.
Comment:
Those who forget history (of fail to study it) are doomed to repeat the same mistake. I have heard people mention inflation, in 1981 Volcker raises feds funds rate from 11% to 20% (yes 20%) stock crashes 24.5%. Today Fed thinks its rates will be just under 6% and stocks crashed 27%. So I am trying to understand all the fear about the fed raising rates. We have also formed almost the same bottom pattern as 1982. But we will soon know where the market will head soon.
Trade active:
Looking good so far, stocks are rallying. Once we break above the black line, the unbeliever should convert.
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looks like we are forming a bull flag, last time we did something similar?
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The-SPX-is-a-DXY-story
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Trading view added more chart data. Prior we had visible data to around 1948 but now they have added data to about 1928. From 1928 to the last cutoff 1958ish, we had 3 additional occurrence in the new data and 2 out of it failed.
So in total 13 out of the 15 times we had closed above the 50 for three consecutive weeks the market had bottomed. This gives us about 86.67% that the market at bottomed.
One thing to note is that both times we had made a new low, we had been rejected by the 100MA. Time will tell what will happen to in this moment.
This was the last data they had before
So in total 13 out of the 15 times we had closed above the 50 for three consecutive weeks the market had bottomed. This gives us about 86.67% that the market at bottomed.
One thing to note is that both times we had made a new low, we had been rejected by the 100MA. Time will tell what will happen to in this moment.
This was the last data they had before
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WW3? I just noticed that the only two times this ever failed, we were about to enter WW2 and just after WW2.
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Bullish megaphone still in play here see for similarities.
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What a response by the bulls. Let see if we follow up next week.
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Ignore the noise and follow the Data Ignore the noise and follow the data
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Did the Fed just blink?
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Ignore the noise and follow the data.
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This still stands, bottom is in. Slow grind to new high and no more easy money.
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The above fractal is from 1988 check out this for context
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still not convinced?
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Massive short squeeze could incoming
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Finally a close above
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double bottom?
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NVDA new all time high
AAPL $1.10 from new all time high
MSFT $12 from new all time high
Still think we are in a bear market?
AAPL $1.10 from new all time high
MSFT $12 from new all time high
Still think we are in a bear market?
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Correction over?
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DJI just made a new all time high. Lets see if SPX follows next
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Enjoy the Rally while it last
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Do we finally get the all time high on SPX tomorrow? I think so..
Not investment advice.
Not investment advice.
Comment:
We did it!!!. New all time highs as predicted when everyone was fearful.
Trade closed: target reached:
Closing this idea. I think we move to this where I think the rally stops.
