vitalalyt

SPX - Panic Over, Time to Buy the Dip?

Long
SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Volatility has considerably increased in S&P500 and remains to be high due to uncertainties in the the US economy, sky-rocketing inflation and geopolitical risks.
Is it time to buy the companies with good fundamentals after a sell off and what looks to be a good bounce?

Fundamental indicators:
  • US GDP - annualized change is lower than expected with -1.5%
  • US Consumer Confidence - keeps dropping and getting closer to the pre financial crisis levels of 2008
  • US Consumer Credit- at the highest since 2011, a positive sign, however, this can also be accredited to sharp rise in costs, hence people are spending more and getting less in return than in 2011
  • US Industrial Production - also at its historic peak
  • US Jobless Claims - lower than expected this month and at the pre-pandemic levels
  • US CPI - slowed down in April with 8.3% compared to 8.5% in March, awaiting CPE figures
  • S&P500 P/E - at 19.8 ratio, lowest since December 2018

Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
  • Sharp fall in March 2020 has completed two year correction which has been formed in the shape of expanding triangle, a rare type of correction but usually followed by the rapid impulse
  • Since then there was an explosive growth in the final impulse and it is likely that waves 1 to 3 have already been completed and wave 4 is currently forming
  • With the current bounce, wave 4 doesn't look to be completed and this scenario suggests that there will be an upward move to the area of $4300-$4350 to complete wave X of wave 4
  • Using Fibonacci retracement we can see that 0.618 level of wave 3 has already been passed and it is likely that wave 4 will end in the range between $3550 and $3825, but more likely to be closer to the upper level
  • The completion of wave 4 will be followed by impulse or an Ending Diagonal in wave 5 to update the historic high

Given the mixed fundamentals what do you think about S&P500 and its prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.

Thanks


PS this is an update to the idea proposed previously

In search of the optimal signals
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