$SPY $SPX - #SPY #SPX Where is the S & P 500 Index headed next?
On Friday September 23rd, the FED held a very important meeting to discuss the current issues that we are facing economically, while most of the comments were bleak, there were a few clues that our supply chain could finally see a light at the end of the tunnel by next year (not without heartache of course).
The largest issue we are facing is supply chain & employment retention issues.
The supply chain will be slowly improving now until the end of the year.
If you are following my social media page, I've stated that shipping prices will see a decline beginning this week (shipping is a large part of our supply chain issues).
The second large issue is understaffed production. I believe this will adjust as more corporations begin laying off workers, the job market will tighten, making entry level positions more competitive.
Real Estate will get slaughtered into the New year to make housing more affordable, but keep in mind we do have a shortage in homes (considering how many millennial/gen Xers are still living with their mamas). New home builders cannot profit with high inflation, high interest loans and a declining real estate market. The will begin to pay off debts first to avoid the new high rates and then buy back single family homes to flip for profits and/or buy back their own beaten down stocks. As FED pivots, homes will get purchased again so not at all am I expecting a 2008 scenario.
When the FED decides to pivot, the best place to hold cash will be BITCOIN, GOLD, SILVER, STOCKS, (possibly real estate if you have cash on hand) ect and at that time $DXY will drop and the Dollar will no longer be the best store of value.
I listened to the entire 2+ hours of the FED meeting and after analyzing the current data and Jerome Powell's hawkish nature, I'm NOT expecting a big bounce in the S&P 500 Index anytime soon.
The shorts are piling in and for good reason because we will definitely drop down and make a fresh low this year. A pivot in our current sentiment isn't happening next month, the bounce going into October will be much weaker than the previous one we just had, maybe just to squeeze enough shorts out of existence before actually making the plunge into the final accumulation pattern.
I will keep updating my thoughts as more data is printed but for now this is an estimate of how I see the price action flowing on The S & P 500 Index.
Happy Sunday!!
The largest issue we are facing is supply chain & employment retention issues.
The supply chain will be slowly improving now until the end of the year.
If you are following my social media page, I've stated that shipping prices will see a decline beginning this week (shipping is a large part of our supply chain issues).
The second large issue is understaffed production. I believe this will adjust as more corporations begin laying off workers, the job market will tighten, making entry level positions more competitive.
Real Estate will get slaughtered into the New year to make housing more affordable, but keep in mind we do have a shortage in homes (considering how many millennial/gen Xers are still living with their mamas). New home builders cannot profit with high inflation, high interest loans and a declining real estate market. The will begin to pay off debts first to avoid the new high rates and then buy back single family homes to flip for profits and/or buy back their own beaten down stocks. As FED pivots, homes will get purchased again so not at all am I expecting a 2008 scenario.
When the FED decides to pivot, the best place to hold cash will be BITCOIN, GOLD, SILVER, STOCKS, (possibly real estate if you have cash on hand) ect and at that time $DXY will drop and the Dollar will no longer be the best store of value.
I listened to the entire 2+ hours of the FED meeting and after analyzing the current data and Jerome Powell's hawkish nature, I'm NOT expecting a big bounce in the S&P 500 Index anytime soon.
The shorts are piling in and for good reason because we will definitely drop down and make a fresh low this year. A pivot in our current sentiment isn't happening next month, the bounce going into October will be much weaker than the previous one we just had, maybe just to squeeze enough shorts out of existence before actually making the plunge into the final accumulation pattern.
I will keep updating my thoughts as more data is printed but for now this is an estimate of how I see the price action flowing on The S & P 500 Index.
Happy Sunday!!