CassidyWaterhouS

THE CASE FOR TRUMP

Long
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
It’s time to talk about Trump, and why I think he’s done a good job at being a president so far.

First of all, he is not your usual politician. This is good on two fronts simultaneously.

Firstly, he does not have to return favors and kiss asses to the circle of insiders, which one inevitably amasses on one’s way up to the presidency, when doing it a conventional career politician way. And also, because he self funded his campaign, so there was no need to cater to the special interests.

Secondly, he does not really care about reelection. And here is why.
The guy is 73 years old, he is famous all over the world and he is rich beyond one’s imagining. He had everything life has to offer, so the presidency bid might have started as an epic «why not» thing. The presidency is the icing on the cake for him. He went for it because he could, because he wanted, and also I suspect, being a high profile businessman, he saw the rot that was eating away on the heart of America and I believe he wanted to have something done about it.

And he got elected. The icing on the cake was made. So he won already. Even if he goes tomorrow, he’s already won. He will be remembered. That allows him not to worry much about momentary moods of the crowd, press coverage and the rest. So we’ve got a president who can put forward a proper grand vision, whereas the latest presidents were mainly doing minor patchwork instead, when not wrecking the economy of bombing deserts. He might pretend he cares, but that is part of the game if being Trump and his presidency. And on the reelection note: yes, I believe he will be reelected no matter who gets to stand against him.

On the solid results:

No new wars had been started.No money wasted, no deserts bombed. He attempted to withdraw from Syria and Afghanistan, which is great, given that the US should not have been there in the first place. Pressured enemies diplomatically and finically(Iran, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela) not a single shot fired. A massive win!

The economy is great. It is true, Trump inherited a somewhat okay economy, yet, the usual economic cycle was supposed to have ended by the time he became president. We were sliding into the recession. Just look at the SNP500. We were an inch away from the abyss. Yet, with tax cuts, regulations slashed and the general spirits reinvigorated, the market almost doubled in 3 years that Trump is a president. And you can’t take that away from him.

Basically, what else do you want? That is already 6 out of 10. With his predecessors scoring 3/10 at best.

Good on the domestic policy. Vocally protects 1st and 2nd amendments. Got a fellow conservative into the Supreme Court.

The guy has massively shifted the whole political and cultural narratives and the way we see and do things already.

He had the balls to shake the rotten house of NATO and make Europe pay its fair share.

He had the balls to start a trade feud with China, taking then on the issues that were supposed to be settled 20 years ago. Intellectual property theft, unfair treatment of the western companies, closing its market randomly and manipulating currency. Trump singlehandedly reshaped how the world trades with America. USMCA is coming, Europe will give way. China is holding, but, arguably to its detriment. The need for reining China in was acutely felt long before Trump. Yet, everyone was kicking the can down the road, thinking, not this year. Not in my presidency. The longer you hold the dog, the angrier it gets. He was the only one who let the dog go, and faced the consequences.

His unique style of managing relations with the Fed had somewhat taken me aback, at first, yet we need to be wary of the power that we’ve endowed into this closed, unelected, and immensely powerful institution. So agin, challenging status quo, not bad.

So here is my brief take on Trump. And, just to make it clear, I am not a Trump fan. I am an independent thinker and when analyzing Trump, I am not comparing him to some abstract theoretical ideal we might have had, but to the real alternatives, the ones we’ve got and the one's we had before.


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