itsQure
Short

Is Spy Bearish and When to Get In?

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
This week has definitely been the most baffling to new investors and the untrained eye. This gap up on Monday followed the general market rules and the following days have been acting accordingly. If you understand the past movements feel free to skip to the Predictions section below; otherwise, keep reading.

Why the Gap?
First off if you don't know what happened, it has to do with the head and shoulders pattern that formed over the past month and the following pull down on Friday that occurred as a result of the pattern. This pull-down was headed to a destination, give or take the 260 area, but they needed to retest the neck-line to see if this movement was in fact valid..this happened on Friday, but the bearish head and shoulders pattern failed therefore the pull-down movement was the gap-up we saw. This type of movement calculable and I suggest you do some research if that interests you.

Predictions
Look for the time being you should ask yourself: where are sellers likely to come and when will the bulls lose steam? My thoughts are that a we will see sellers around the 299/298 mark. Why? Because this is where the 200 period moving average is for on the daily... need I say more? If they blast through this value watch the big fat round number 300 and past that will only be short squeeze to 302ish, this is where the head-and-shoulders reversal calculation will come in handy. These values are the big 3 to watch out for and a good entry point for a sell-off to at least the neckline, yes I know it should be invalidated but it is also a trend-line and I like the values(290 in particular).

What Am I?
I neither a bull nor a bear... just a trader. Check out my other predictions for quality and accuracy... except the fugly DKNG prediction. I learned a lesson that day, but on SPY and other major indices I pride myself as being in the know.

Like and Follow!! Also please leave comments and questions. I will happily answer and digest your guys input!

Comment: If it fails to end higher than the open from yesterday. Bear sign. Currently could reject filling the gap and still go higher. Watch out.
Comment: Spy does not look bullish too me today. I grabbed a put for 292. Stop loss @ 296.51

Comments

So you feel it will be bearish either way?
+1 Reply
itsQure sprucebruce03
@sprucebruce03, well I don't think that the market will go beyond the 200 period moving average or the big fat number 300 without a significant sell-off. And thats what I am basically saying in this post.

A test of some of the important values below are normal for the market and I do know there is more space for lower movement than above. The issue is getting the timing right.

I am still bullish until we reach those values or the puzzle pieces that I look for analysis of the market make me raise an eyebrow.
+1 Reply
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