trdollar
Short

Approaching Market Top - Technicals and Shiller's CAPE Index

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
The SPY             is overbought, and is about to decline. Seems like a longer term reversal will be in place. This is a natural adjustment to the interest rate environment. Following the link related to this idea, you'll see a further explanation using the Shiller CAPE Index Plot that is frequently updated on his Irrational Exuberance website. My target price is 180 over the next year, and potentially 160 in the next two. The market should then grind slightly lower and in a trading range around 160 for until 2018/19. After, the market should begin to improve as rates come back to normal.

One caveat. The market in the early 1930's may not have received the economic stimulus the federal reserve put forth in the 2009-2015 time frame. This may help support stock prices, and the market may not fall much at all over the next few years. However, money in the market does not equate to top and bottom line growth.

Last, these are my thoughts and they are not investment advice. Talk with your financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
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