TLT: Bonds No Longer Safe?
TLT has appears to have completed a long term Ending Diagonal spanning almost 10 years.
The first signs of breakdown appeared in 07/2017 when the 20 year bonds sold off to a near 2 year low at $116.49.
The recovery since then was tepid and choppy.
Prices have appeared to completed a W-X-Y consolidation at lower time frames and appear ready to continue its larger trend downwards.
We do not rule out a more complex pattern in progress resulting in one more high before resuming its larger trend.
However, the near term sell down analysis remains the operative one.
A decisive break down of its recent low in $116.49 will bring utmost confidence that the down trend is in full flow.
The first signs of breakdown appeared in 07/2017 when the 20 year bonds sold off to a near 2 year low at $116.49.
The recovery since then was tepid and choppy.
Prices have appeared to completed a W-X-Y consolidation at lower time frames and appear ready to continue its larger trend downwards.
We do not rule out a more complex pattern in progress resulting in one more high before resuming its larger trend.
However, the near term sell down analysis remains the operative one.
A decisive break down of its recent low in $116.49 will bring utmost confidence that the down trend is in full flow.
Comment:
A Head And Shoulders formation.
Watch for a strong break of the shoulder as a trigger.
Watch for a strong break of the shoulder as a trigger.
Comment:
Prices broke and close below shoulder level in above average volume.
Projection of minimum price target measured from shoulder.
Any retracement should find resistance in around the shoulder level.
Projection of minimum price target measured from shoulder.
Any retracement should find resistance in around the shoulder level.
Comment:
Yields have moved up steadily and its bringing prices in opposite direction.
Downside momentum should pick up once its breaks and closes below Minute Wave i.
(Weekly)
(2D)
Downside momentum should pick up once its breaks and closes below Minute Wave i.
(Weekly)
Watch for more downward momentum breaking multiple layers of support for strong evidence of bond sell-off.