TLT is about to resume the down-trend
Down-trend on TLT is about to resume with a target around 122, so I am excepting long side of a yield curve to go event further up and eventually exceed 3%. I like Lacy Hunt's arguments for deflation/not inflation in the long term. But as he also mentioned, it is a norm at the moment to expect a short term inflation pressure.
I believe a 5 wave structure is unwinding since 5th of April, 2020 on TLT chart, with 4th wave potentially just completed. Wave 2 had triangle structure, so wave 4 is expected to form a zig-zag , exactly is it actually happened. So it is ready for the next move down towards 122.
Watch TLT/JNK chart which I found very interesting, it gives an idea about a turning point when market is going to turn from risk to save assets. Most likely it will be in sync with completion of DXY correction (started in 2017), so both $ and bond will go up after then.
I believe a 5 wave structure is unwinding since 5th of April, 2020 on TLT chart, with 4th wave potentially just completed. Wave 2 had triangle structure, so wave 4 is expected to form a zig-zag , exactly is it actually happened. So it is ready for the next move down towards 122.
Watch TLT/JNK chart which I found very interesting, it gives an idea about a turning point when market is going to turn from risk to save assets. Most likely it will be in sync with completion of DXY correction (started in 2017), so both $ and bond will go up after then.
