If history is an indication to guide us in chart analysis, we are at a detrimental moment.
In December 2018, Total3 bottomed at -59.33% from the 200day. Now (if we have bottomed) we had a -54.10% from the 200day (close enough to me).
In 2018, Total3 spent 315 days under the 200day, now we have 273 days under the 200day.
We have 42 days to go which will bring us to early December coinciding with the
FIFA World Cup (The biggest Event in the world) has one of its official sponsors Crypto.com (coincidence?).
My take on all this is according to the following:
1 - Markets tend to surprise the majority of investors, so if the majority is bearish, the market tends to turn bullish.
In my research for the last few months, the majority of crypto space "people" had basically two views on the market:
a] BTC is crashing to 10k or below
b] BTC is having a relief rally while the Alts bleed
In this scenario, the only outcome that would prove the Majority wrong is a strong altcoin season with BTC retracing slowly but not getting close
to put a new ATH.
2 - Crypto Youtubers are always wrong, let me emphasise that, CRYPTO YOUTUBERS ARE ALWAYS WRONG. That is why they need to create new videos every day
so they can fix their analysis and change their theories to try to mirror the facts. Therefore, they are a good thermometer of what the herd will be doing.
Also, most Youtubers, are now cautious after the Terra disaster as lots of them were shilling Terra as the new Ethereum.
On that note, the retail investors are holding tidy their money because of what their cultist YouTubers who most likely have or either view a] or view b], are telling them.
They will wait for the BTC crash below 10k or BTC retracement alone. The majority of YouTubers are scaring people from the altcoin market, all saying BTC is the way to go.
Some YouTubers, still shill the blue ships like ETH, DOT, SOL, Link, ADA, DOGE, Shib and so on. So my take on that is that the majority of the retail will jump into the market
looking to ride the rise of those coins (BTC, ETH, DOT, SOL, Link, ADA, Doge, Shib, etc...). This brings us to an interesting point, if the majority is always wrong, the rise of those
projects is unlikely.
3 - What we call an altcoin season, is the massive rise of low-cap projects, sucking the market cap of BTC and ETH (now we can even say of all major top 5 or 10 blue ship coins).
That happened in 2017/18, therefore, that did not happen in 2021/22. Only a handful of coins reached their full Fibo extension. So we have now, coins that had their full
Bullrun and coins that did not have. My take is that, from the end of October to early February, we can possibly see an altcoin season, as it is the only scenario that will
fulfil the requirement of making the majority wrong.
4 - So this is how it should work: BTC turn bullish in 1 or 2 weeks from now and FOMO starts again. Youtubers start to go nuts and shill BTC like crazy. Some retail investors will either go all-in into BTC
or they will spread their money into ETH, DOT, SOL, Link, ADA, Doge, and Shib, expecting the past performance to repeat. Hence, those projects and BTC will not pump to new ATH, they will
in the most positive view, retrace to 80% of their previous ATH value. Here, some other projects that did not have a bull run yet (E.g. EOS, Litecoin, XRP, etc..), will be pumping hard which
will spark a FOMO into the altcoin market. The investors sitting on BTC, ETH, DOT, SOL, Link, ADA, Doge, Shib, etc... out of frustration will slowly capitulate into the other altcoins
trying to ride the wave. Even some big players will be caught pants down and throw millions into projects with no real value just to ride the wave. This whole money will keep rotating for around 3 months.
5 - After the majority of the top 300 (just guessed that one, could be more or less) coins have had their full fib extension, the whole market will crash, starting the real bear market that will last until about 2024/25.
6 - This scenario presents a BTC.D going down while its price goes up, which is another unpopular view right now as most YouTubers(cultists) are calling for a big pump on BTC dominance.
7 - It is also important to mention that, the SEC is in trouble regarding the XRP lawsuit (I do not have XRP in my portfolio). From my perspective, the SEC is set for a brutal loss that probably will bring confidence to the
the altcoin market fuelling the season, so please do not be surprised if the lawsuit finishes just within the FIFA World Cup timeframe, (coincidence?)
8 - One of the recent modern ways to invalidate someone's ideas/thinking is calling it a "Conspiracy Theory", so right now is common to see people calling other people's ideas/thinking a conspiracy theory just because they don't like it.
This is not a surprise, every person with two neurons should know that we are heading fast to a new type of dictatorship based on absolute control of what you do, enforced by technology (cameras, mobiles, Internet and so on). So it is not unreasonable to think that a bunch of powerful people set these scenarios, FIFA Cup, XRP lawsuit, and Youtubers all saying the same thing. The herd, if pleased in the right way, can be manipulated, this is how it was, how it is and how it will always be. The 1% most likely sit down together to keep or increase their power/money, why wouldn't they?
9 - The herd is louder, bigger, hysterical, violent and dangerous, but they are also lazy, immoral, hypocritical, nonsense and disloyal. If you want freedom, follow the 1%, not the herd.
In December 2018, Total3 bottomed at -59.33% from the 200day. Now (if we have bottomed) we had a -54.10% from the 200day (close enough to me).
In 2018, Total3 spent 315 days under the 200day, now we have 273 days under the 200day.
We have 42 days to go which will bring us to early December coinciding with the
FIFA World Cup (The biggest Event in the world) has one of its official sponsors Crypto.com (coincidence?).
My take on all this is according to the following:
1 - Markets tend to surprise the majority of investors, so if the majority is bearish, the market tends to turn bullish.
In my research for the last few months, the majority of crypto space "people" had basically two views on the market:
a] BTC is crashing to 10k or below
b] BTC is having a relief rally while the Alts bleed
In this scenario, the only outcome that would prove the Majority wrong is a strong altcoin season with BTC retracing slowly but not getting close
to put a new ATH.
2 - Crypto Youtubers are always wrong, let me emphasise that, CRYPTO YOUTUBERS ARE ALWAYS WRONG. That is why they need to create new videos every day
so they can fix their analysis and change their theories to try to mirror the facts. Therefore, they are a good thermometer of what the herd will be doing.
Also, most Youtubers, are now cautious after the Terra disaster as lots of them were shilling Terra as the new Ethereum.
On that note, the retail investors are holding tidy their money because of what their cultist YouTubers who most likely have or either view a] or view b], are telling them.
They will wait for the BTC crash below 10k or BTC retracement alone. The majority of YouTubers are scaring people from the altcoin market, all saying BTC is the way to go.
Some YouTubers, still shill the blue ships like ETH, DOT, SOL, Link, ADA, DOGE, Shib and so on. So my take on that is that the majority of the retail will jump into the market
looking to ride the rise of those coins (BTC, ETH, DOT, SOL, Link, ADA, Doge, Shib, etc...). This brings us to an interesting point, if the majority is always wrong, the rise of those
projects is unlikely.
3 - What we call an altcoin season, is the massive rise of low-cap projects, sucking the market cap of BTC and ETH (now we can even say of all major top 5 or 10 blue ship coins).
That happened in 2017/18, therefore, that did not happen in 2021/22. Only a handful of coins reached their full Fibo extension. So we have now, coins that had their full
Bullrun and coins that did not have. My take is that, from the end of October to early February, we can possibly see an altcoin season, as it is the only scenario that will
fulfil the requirement of making the majority wrong.
4 - So this is how it should work: BTC turn bullish in 1 or 2 weeks from now and FOMO starts again. Youtubers start to go nuts and shill BTC like crazy. Some retail investors will either go all-in into BTC
or they will spread their money into ETH, DOT, SOL, Link, ADA, Doge, and Shib, expecting the past performance to repeat. Hence, those projects and BTC will not pump to new ATH, they will
in the most positive view, retrace to 80% of their previous ATH value. Here, some other projects that did not have a bull run yet (E.g. EOS, Litecoin, XRP, etc..), will be pumping hard which
will spark a FOMO into the altcoin market. The investors sitting on BTC, ETH, DOT, SOL, Link, ADA, Doge, Shib, etc... out of frustration will slowly capitulate into the other altcoins
trying to ride the wave. Even some big players will be caught pants down and throw millions into projects with no real value just to ride the wave. This whole money will keep rotating for around 3 months.
5 - After the majority of the top 300 (just guessed that one, could be more or less) coins have had their full fib extension, the whole market will crash, starting the real bear market that will last until about 2024/25.
6 - This scenario presents a BTC.D going down while its price goes up, which is another unpopular view right now as most YouTubers(cultists) are calling for a big pump on BTC dominance.
7 - It is also important to mention that, the SEC is in trouble regarding the XRP lawsuit (I do not have XRP in my portfolio). From my perspective, the SEC is set for a brutal loss that probably will bring confidence to the
the altcoin market fuelling the season, so please do not be surprised if the lawsuit finishes just within the FIFA World Cup timeframe, (coincidence?)
8 - One of the recent modern ways to invalidate someone's ideas/thinking is calling it a "Conspiracy Theory", so right now is common to see people calling other people's ideas/thinking a conspiracy theory just because they don't like it.
This is not a surprise, every person with two neurons should know that we are heading fast to a new type of dictatorship based on absolute control of what you do, enforced by technology (cameras, mobiles, Internet and so on). So it is not unreasonable to think that a bunch of powerful people set these scenarios, FIFA Cup, XRP lawsuit, and Youtubers all saying the same thing. The herd, if pleased in the right way, can be manipulated, this is how it was, how it is and how it will always be. The 1% most likely sit down together to keep or increase their power/money, why wouldn't they?
9 - The herd is louder, bigger, hysterical, violent and dangerous, but they are also lazy, immoral, hypocritical, nonsense and disloyal. If you want freedom, follow the 1%, not the herd.