TYX 30 Year Bond Yield

With Fed Powell having his big speech last week, I wanted to take a look at the TYX which is the 30 year treasury bond yield. Although he noted that they won't necessarily hike interest rates in the short term, he did say that he would consider doing so Q2 and above depending on job growth and GDP growth. There was also a clear warning that the Fed would pullback on some of the bond purchasing two times in November and December going into 2022. The TYX normally responds to this in a bullish manner. With the CPI reports being the highest since 1990, consumers are taking hits with having to spend more money for the same products. In the most recent months, this hasn't really mattered to the average consumer. However, if the CPI reports continue to come in higher than forecasted, I'm sure that those same consumers would start pulling back their expenditures. Now taking a look at the chart, my focus is on the Daily TF where there seems to be a bullish flag forming and or an Eve and Eve double bottom that could be in the midst of forming if consolidation persists within the next 3 months. The Mac D indicator seems as if it needs to retrace the previous high and it has already surpassed the 38% retracement level and am looking for a bullish move out of the flag to reach the 61.80% retracement. If this happens and we cross above the 200 ema (already happening on the 15 min) we could be back in the 2's at some point in the near future.

What do you think?

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Not advice! Just an Idea!


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