FX:EURUSD has been navigating sideways since January amid economic challenges, rising interest rates, and Western economic uncertainties.
Approaching yearly resistance at 1.10806, a rebound towards 1.05335 support is expected. By the end of the first financial quarter, a breakthrough of yearly resistance is anticipated, solidifying new support.
On the afternoon of October 3rd, 2023 something unprecedented happened in the U.S. Treasury market. For the first time ever, bear steepening caused the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to uninvert.
Bear steepening refers to a scenario in which long-duration bond yields rise faster than short-duration bond yields, as bond yields...
A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve
Another sign that Fed credibility is waning.
The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive...
The technical weekly uptrend that yields have formed is rather astonishing.
The sheer power of this move suggests likely more upside yields. Some basic measured moves suggest a potential whopping 5.7% on the 20 year.
Imagine TLT long bond traders!
Nothing is probable but it makes you wonder if inflation is becoming more entrenched since the bond market is very...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change.
Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again.
Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
The Treasury General Account (TGA) prior to the GFC of 2008 averaged between $4 and $5 billion.
When the debt ceiling people freaked when it hit $48 billion (9X more than the historic average.) LOL! Today it's $500 billion 100X more than the historic average on its way to $600!
Oddly enough to MMTers the TGA has never gone negative (As my friend
This is nothing new, really. People who have been in markets long enough know that when short term bond yields (3 month and 2 year, for example) come up to meet and invert to a higher yield than longer term bonds (like the 10 year, 30 year etc) that it often precedes a large market sell off as well as a recession that affects most everyone, not just stock...
Good afternoon and good evening dear traders!
At the morning I shared a post where I said to sell ZB1!, it's too late but you still have made some profits if you got in early. For my clients and I it was a good day in ZB1! and NATURAL GAS, we could make some good profits on the 4% drop of the NATURAL GAS and on the 1% of the ZB1!, I didn't share the NATURAL GAS...
CBOT: Micro Treasury Yields ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , CBOT_MINI:5YY1! , CBOT_MINI:10Y1! , CBOT_MINI:30Y1! )
Is the US economy heading towards a “no landing”, as opposed to a “hard landing” or a “soft landing"? There is a heated debate among economists and market strategists.
What is a "no landing"? It is a new term drawn up by Wall Street, which describes the...
Bonds hit resistance at 111'26, dipping back to support at 110'27. We anticipated this in our reports yesterday. It is likely we will continue the sideways correction from here, bound between these two levels. If ZN can break out, then 113'12 is the next target. We expect 110'05 to be a floor for now.
In 2008 the U.S. central bank purchased
$1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities
$200 billion in agency debt
$300 billion in long-term Treasury securities
2008 was named QE1 and would continue for the next 6 years before the FED paused and eventually began to tighten.
During times of QE, banks, companies, markets all perform great.
Monthly chart looks like we are topping on the US10Y. Weekly chart tells a different story. I believe the Weekly US10Y is telling us that fed is going to have to be more hawkish with interest rates on 21st September. We will see if i am right.
The bounce up from pandemic bottom Is corrective, we have a failed wave down after the large ABC thus making it a wave X. Now we are completing the 2nd ABC or WXY pattern into Fib retracements.
Balloons dont follow rules and can fly high, but when they pop it is by all accounts... biblical.
Whenever this chart crosses 0 it means the yield curve for the 2 and 10 year bond yields has inverted. Historically a significant economic downturn followed. It's not perfect but nonetheless I wanted to put this out there for feedback.
This is a chart showing treasury yields, color coded by duration (yellow is the 1 year, dark blue is the 30 year), with the $SPX in the lower frame. Each red line shows a major market top and how they relate to yield compression followed by inversion. It looks to me like shorter term yields always rise vs longer term yields quite awhile before bear markets occur...