In 2008 the U.S. central bank purchased $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities $200 billion in agency debt $300 billion in long-term Treasury securities 2008 was named QE1 and would continue for the next 6 years before the FED paused and eventually began to tighten. During times of QE, banks, companies, markets all perform great. There is...
Monthly chart looks like we are topping on the US10Y. Weekly chart tells a different story. I believe the Weekly US10Y is telling us that fed is going to have to be more hawkish with interest rates on 21st September. We will see if i am right.
The head and shoulders breakdown on the daily chart confirmed on July 18 opened doors for a roughly 70 basis points slide. That makes the 200-day moving average support, currently at 2.8%, pivotal.
The bounce up from pandemic bottom Is corrective, we have a failed wave down after the large ABC thus making it a wave X. Now we are completing the 2nd ABC or WXY pattern into Fib retracements. Balloons dont follow rules and can fly high, but when they pop it is by all accounts... biblical. Cheers
Whenever this chart crosses 0 it means the yield curve for the 2 and 10 year bond yields has inverted. Historically a significant economic downturn followed. It's not perfect but nonetheless I wanted to put this out there for feedback. Thanks
This is a chart showing treasury yields, color coded by duration (yellow is the 1 year, dark blue is the 30 year), with the $SPX in the lower frame. Each red line shows a major market top and how they relate to yield compression followed by inversion. It looks to me like shorter term yields always rise vs longer term yields quite awhile before bear markets occur...
Following another strong US CPI report, the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 2%, further pushing above peaks from late 2019 (1.9073 - 1.9718). That has exposed peaks from summer 2019 as key resistance (2.1779 - 2.1431). A bullish Golden Cross remains in play between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages. Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence...
The attached chart shows 40 years of declining 10 year rates. As we all know, that rate is the basis for mortgage rates and just about everything else. During that half cycle the housing market boomed, the stock market boomed and generally speaking, corporations and individuals prospered. But that trend has ended. Thursday I would have said that rates would either...
Momentum: Stochastic still goes up Pattern: Inverted Head and Shoulder Price: 2.03% Time: Q1 - Q2 2022
I think the ZB will reach 166' but don't enter with too many contracts good luck guys
ZB T bond 30 falling down, you have to search only for sell signal,
Bonds have picked up as stocks have sold off due to increased risk sentiment. We have edged up to 131'02, the technical level we discussed yesterday. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, but is starting to level off as ZN finds value in the low 131 handle. We are gradually trekking up in a zig zag pattern, but will face resistance at the next technical...
US 10 years treasury Yield touched it's weekly trend line and bounce, and if bearish trend will continue it's a sign of recession.
Bonds have seen a bit of a relief rally as we predicted yesterday. They hit the exact target we identified, 130'00, before settling near support at 129'26. We anticipate a quiet market as we go into the US hoiday for Thanksgiving. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish, suggesting that this rally may be just a relief rally. That being said, we do have an...
With Fed Powell having his big speech last week, I wanted to take a look at the TYX which is the 30 year treasury bond yield. Although he noted that they won't necessarily hike interest rates in the short term, he did say that he would consider doing so Q2 and above depending on job growth and GDP growth. There was also a clear warning that the Fed would pullback...
ZN is testing highs at 131'12. We have tested this level twice but are facing some resistance as confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The next level above is 131'20, and this will be the next target if we can break 131'12. The Kovach OBV is progressively getting stronger, but has currently leveled off. Bonds will likely range a bit until we see more...
Looks like we are at a resistance level. I want to see if price will retrace the previous low on the daily fib anywhere between 38% - 61% before any bullish run.
At this stage of the game, there are genuinely too many things to list that would back up the idea of an impending drop in the market. Instead of eating, sleeping breathing FUD and living in the fear based, scarcity mindset and focusing on how “the market is going to crash” I encourage everyone to see the clearance buffet we are about to have in front of us....