Il rapporto rame oro dimostra di avere delle proprieta' anticipatrici rispetto ai tassi sui titoli di stato Usa a 10 anni .
Il ratio rame oro e' usato in vari ambiti sia per cogliere i massimi del gold sia per prevedere i tassi dei Treasury Usa a 10 anni
Yield curve 10 year US Treasury rate minus 2 Year US Treasury rate
We just received the 25 basis points rate cut. The market had already priced it in. Powell just released the statement. It seems to be a dovish one . He will start his speech at 2:30pm, where the market will try to understand the possibility of a 4th rate cut in December. The CBOE Fed tool has the 4th cut in December at 26%. We should see the yield curve...
The cross is using the 20 and 50 exponential moving average. $136.5 --- short term support If we brake down, the next support is close to the 200SMA ($130). The rate cut tomorrow with Powell's speech will most likely move this indicator.
The 10 year has rebounded off the major 1M Support this month, making a statement with last week's strong 1W candle. This marked a Triple Top formation on the 1M scale (since 2012) and the trend shift becomes obvious. 1D is trading near overbought territory (RSI = 70.811) pushing the 1W towards neutrality (RSI = 42.781, ADX = 58.406, Highs/Lows = 0.0000),...
This chart depicts the US gold reserves divided by the interest on debt. The interest on debt is calculated as a proxy by multiplying the 10 year interest rate with the total federal debt. Whether this is accurate or not is not so important as we just want to compare this ratio with its historic values. It is important to note that official US gold reserves have...
The yield curve is still in a bear market. Downward trending resistance at 3.1% Once that is broken, it could easily go up to 7% which will act as a magnet due to it being a historical support line (1973-1992) and resistance (1992-2000). This would be disastrous for the US government as interest on debt would rapidly rise. More fundamental reasons of why the yield...
DANIEL BRUNO, CMT BE SURE TO SEE MY T-NOTE CHART LINKED BELOW LONG TERM TREND IS DOWN CURRENTLY AT THE 2/1 GANN, INFLECTION END OF MARCH AT CROSS OF 2/1 WITH THE 45 DEGREE 1/1
At the beginning of the year it passed a key level where it was at in April-May of 2018 to maybe show some sign of a bullish reversal incoming. Will be posting a comment with 4HR timeframes to see the consolidation more clearly.
10 year yield is dropping with a quickness to match only stock sell-offs. Might be a good time to look at some REITS? Rates look to me like they will decline for the next 2-3 years. Yields hit .382 fib support today and bounced very slightly higher. News of the end of the Gov shut down could provide the catalyst needed to send yields back to .236 level...
This chart compares the real yield of 10 year Treasuries (bottom red) to XAUUSD (top). The real yield is the yield that a treasury buyer can expect to earn after inflation (nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate). At a glance there's visibly a strong negative correlation between real rates and the price of gold over time. Research by _Erb and Harvey...
The rate of Bonds is at a very interesting place as highlighted in the chart! In depth exploration in the video below: youtu.be
$DJI to break into 20K support and depending on the panic enforcing to the market, either break into 18K or settle between 18K-20K supports, thereby all high-caps to have new market caps to be settled. Please feel free to comment, happy holidays, and trade safe!
In next 60 days, as $DJI continues to dramatically falls, among other market indices (e.g. oil most likely to hit below $40), thereby high-market caps (e.g., $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN) to settle down to new lower valuations, most likely all to hit below $600B, or even lower as it all used to hold on <$500B, thereupon $TVIX becomes a safe bet to break up its old adjusted...
An inverted yield curve means a market situation in which the yields offered, for longer maturities, are lower than the yields of the short-term portion of the curve (in this case the "short" is usually considered as the rates up to 2 years). This is a situation that is at first sight counter-intuitive. Those who have studied Finance will certainly remember the...
This ratio shows us that we are in a beginning period for going below 1, in that case this is the first signal, and is the following one US02Y/US10Y will go in the same direction, recession will begin. thank for this last one