Serious Traders. All hell break lose at 3% - WHY am I showing you this??? Because it will be the sale of a life time. Money out of stocks and into bonds. Donald Trump HUGE!!!!!!!!! So what's going to happen. The bubble will burst obviously. Keep your eyes open!!!
treasuries coiling up for another move. momentum on 10y crashing even with feb no-hike odds at 98%. hawkish minutes meeting next month could very well send yields ripping. good watchlist candidate.
Despite the bond bubble right now, I believe there's some room for another rally in bonds. The election of trump have seen stocks driven to record highs, and bonds/treasury/gold crushed. The longest stretch of inflows into US equities since 2014 when the dollar rallied 20%. Net short in 10 year bonds are currently at record lows: (-500,000) i.imgur.com (courtesy...
TNX has been rising very rapidly. Now it's above 200-daily moving average. RSI is signaling overbought, but one must remember that it can stay overbought for some time. Maybe investors are realizing something? twitter.com
If the triangle plays out and TLT swings lower, the red area is where I will be looking the first signs of support. We have 200 mA, a support line and a fib level in this area. A break above 141.72 would invalidate the triangle count.
Still think rates will head lower due for a myriad of reasons, but in the short term, it is plausible that rates will go higher for technical reasons. Longer-Term Reasons for lower rates (i.e. lower for longer)- 1) Monetary Policy remains accommodative 2) Growth/Inflation expectations remain subdued 3) Foreign buying interest from places with negative yields on...
TBT might pop out of this tight area. See the full newsletter here: forum.marketstockoptions.com
I see TBT almost hitting support level. See the full newsletter here: forum.marketstockoptions.com
Bond price seems to be on the way higher after a tight four-month consolidation.
These lines help us see how quickly people are switching from Treasuries to Gold.
Follow this chart for decision between US Treasuries and Gold.