Nsadaq Bullish, Breakthrough only if Dollar and Bonds bearish
NASDAQ TREN CHANGE
52W BULLISH49-51W BULLIH
30W BULLISH
1-20W BULLIH
Also complete green signs on lower Timefame.
CPI DATA far below expectations, that dropped US Dollar and Bonds down, while pushing up NDX
Core CPI m/m
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
USD
CPI m/m
0.0%
0.1%
0.4%
USD
CPI y/y
3.2%
3.3%
3.7%
The inking Dollar Periode is starting now, DXY dropped -1% while the treasuies follwed
The gap at 13200 is still active, but with changing fundamental data, now my ia is ,,BULLISH,, again, also other Indices following NDX.
RTY 52W still beaish, but it might change soon.
The 25 Strongest NDX Shares, based on their weight, broke all trends up, that is additional Vitamin BOOST for Nadaq. The End year ralley can begin.
Tomorrow on Nov. 15th 2023 we are looking and waiting for Core PPI m/m
Empire State Manufacturing Index
PPI m/m
Retail Sales m/m
If these data are below expectations, or majority of them, then NDX will soon reach the next level higher targeting 16000
16050 16150 16250 ...16772 ,before the rally to 17000 begins
Upper gap is at 15850-15950.
If the data are mixed or stronger, then we may have a fall back to 15794 15695 15500 15390
It epend on how strong the data will be this week, before the next week starts
Ue always Stops, to protect your capital.
Good Luck
52W BULLISH49-51W BULLIH
30W BULLISH
1-20W BULLIH
Also complete green signs on lower Timefame.
CPI DATA far below expectations, that dropped US Dollar and Bonds down, while pushing up NDX
Core CPI m/m
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
USD
CPI m/m
0.0%
0.1%
0.4%
USD
CPI y/y
3.2%
3.3%
3.7%
The inking Dollar Periode is starting now, DXY dropped -1% while the treasuies follwed
The gap at 13200 is still active, but with changing fundamental data, now my ia is ,,BULLISH,, again, also other Indices following NDX.
RTY 52W still beaish, but it might change soon.
The 25 Strongest NDX Shares, based on their weight, broke all trends up, that is additional Vitamin BOOST for Nadaq. The End year ralley can begin.
Tomorrow on Nov. 15th 2023 we are looking and waiting for Core PPI m/m
Empire State Manufacturing Index
PPI m/m
Retail Sales m/m
If these data are below expectations, or majority of them, then NDX will soon reach the next level higher targeting 16000
16050 16150 16250 ...16772 ,before the rally to 17000 begins
Upper gap is at 15850-15950.
If the data are mixed or stronger, then we may have a fall back to 15794 15695 15500 15390
It epend on how strong the data will be this week, before the next week starts
Ue always Stops, to protect your capital.
Good Luck
Comment:
miced datas
NQ Trend long
Dollar down
today no trend day, ONLY TP DAY as Tend divergences.. if short, work with TP, if Long, work with TP, dont expect Trending today, dollar up NQ up, Dow down Bonds mixed
levels to re.eneter 15804 15773 15711 15534
NQ Trend long
Dollar down
today no trend day, ONLY TP DAY as Tend divergences.. if short, work with TP, if Long, work with TP, dont expect Trending today, dollar up NQ up, Dow down Bonds mixed
levels to re.eneter 15804 15773 15711 15534
Comment:
LIVE STREAM NADAQ ANALYSIS Pre Market 16th NOV 2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/1J6g5n61S6/
US100 Nasdaq POWER OF DIVERGENCE AND TREND
US100 Trading STREATEGY 16th Nov 2023
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
www.tradingview.com/streams/1J6g5n61S6/
US100 Nasdaq POWER OF DIVERGENCE AND TREND
US100 Trading STREATEGY 16th Nov 2023
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
Comment:
US100 Nasdaq 16th Nov2023 After Bell Analysis
US100 Trading STREATEGY 16th Nov 2023
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
www.tradingview.com/streams/52Alrg7JJi/
US100 Trading STREATEGY 16th Nov 2023
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
www.tradingview.com/streams/52Alrg7JJi/
Comment:
15th Nove like 16th Nove today Divergence day, Trend bullish, but we trade with TP
levels down(ro be potentially bullish) 15755-15736 15702-15725 if broken, wait ,cuz thi i the High of the Gap below
Gap levels High 15725 Middle 15631 Low 15550 if broken the Gap upport levels are: 15479 15448 15408
Fundamental: bullish NQ and Indice, Dollar and Bonds bearish
Trading strategy:
Bullish trend and Bullish Day trade, We tae only bullish trades, if Bearish ignals, then we take profit.
Ue always stop loss
AVOIDE: Taking short trades
Reaons: Fundamentals and macro economic data+technical are bullish
levels down(ro be potentially bullish) 15755-15736 15702-15725 if broken, wait ,cuz thi i the High of the Gap below
Gap levels High 15725 Middle 15631 Low 15550 if broken the Gap upport levels are: 15479 15448 15408
Fundamental: bullish NQ and Indice, Dollar and Bonds bearish
Trading strategy:
Bullish trend and Bullish Day trade, We tae only bullish trades, if Bearish ignals, then we take profit.
Ue always stop loss
AVOIDE: Taking short trades
Reaons: Fundamentals and macro economic data+technical are bullish
Comment:
16th Nov2023 The Treasury International Capital Report publihed after the bell:
-1.7B less than expected, Demand for U treasurie going back by foreign invetor, that cuased the drop of the bond. The news is positive for Nasdaq and negative for U Dollar pairs forex.
It measures Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period; Why Traders
Care Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities;
-1.7B less than expected, Demand for U treasurie going back by foreign invetor, that cuased the drop of the bond. The news is positive for Nasdaq and negative for U Dollar pairs forex.
It measures Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period; Why Traders
Care Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities;
Comment:
Bullish
US100 Nasdaq/USDJPY Trading Analysia 17th Nov2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/lIR3L3gKsu/
US100 BullishTrading STREATEGY 17th Nov 2023
UD Japanease Yen Bearish Short ANALYSIS
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
US100 Nasdaq/USDJPY Trading Analysia 17th Nov2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/lIR3L3gKsu/
US100 BullishTrading STREATEGY 17th Nov 2023
UD Japanease Yen Bearish Short ANALYSIS
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
Comment:
US100 Nasdaq/Y Trading Analysis II 17th Nov2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/YvPNN7tPhd/
fORECAT OF THE NEXT WEEK
FOMC Minutes
www.tradingview.com/streams/YvPNN7tPhd/
fORECAT OF THE NEXT WEEK
FOMC Minutes
Comment:
Levels for this week
US100 Nasdaq Weekly ANALYSIS 20-24TH NOV 2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/CTeICCHJCk/
US100 Nasdaq Weekly ANALYSIS 20-24TH NOV 2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/CTeICCHJCk/
Comment:
This trade is still open and active! BULLISH AND Long
Comment:
Bullish
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Relentless Bullish Move
The primary driver of this abrupt bullish sentiment has been the recent softness in the long-term cost of funding depicted by the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield.
The current bout of weakness seen in the US 10-year Treasury yield ex-post release of the softer US CPI print for October implies that the US Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike cycle on the Fed funds rate may have reached a terminal level of 5.25%-5.50% with low odds of an interest rate hike in next month, December FOMC meeting and even the entire months of 2024 based on the current pricing calculated by the CME FedWatch tool.
These latest implications suggest that the next potential scenario in US monetary policy is likely to be less restrictive with a chance of 29.5% for the first interest rate cut to be enacted as early as in the March 2024 FOMC meeting which in turn supports the current bullish outperformance seen in Nasdaq 100 that is heavily weighted in long-duration growth equities such as the seven mega-cap cohort (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla & Nvidia).
Watch the 15,765/15,690 key short-term pivotal support (the minor swing low areas of 16/17 November 2023 & median line of the short-term ascending channel) to maintain the current impulsive upmove sequence. A clearance above the near-term resistance of 16,160 sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 16,310 (upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel) in the first step.
On the flip side, a break below 15,690 negates the bullish tone to expose the next intermediate support at 15,380
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Relentless Bullish Move
The primary driver of this abrupt bullish sentiment has been the recent softness in the long-term cost of funding depicted by the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield.
The current bout of weakness seen in the US 10-year Treasury yield ex-post release of the softer US CPI print for October implies that the US Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike cycle on the Fed funds rate may have reached a terminal level of 5.25%-5.50% with low odds of an interest rate hike in next month, December FOMC meeting and even the entire months of 2024 based on the current pricing calculated by the CME FedWatch tool.
These latest implications suggest that the next potential scenario in US monetary policy is likely to be less restrictive with a chance of 29.5% for the first interest rate cut to be enacted as early as in the March 2024 FOMC meeting which in turn supports the current bullish outperformance seen in Nasdaq 100 that is heavily weighted in long-duration growth equities such as the seven mega-cap cohort (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla & Nvidia).
Watch the 15,765/15,690 key short-term pivotal support (the minor swing low areas of 16/17 November 2023 & median line of the short-term ascending channel) to maintain the current impulsive upmove sequence. A clearance above the near-term resistance of 16,160 sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 16,310 (upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel) in the first step.
On the flip side, a break below 15,690 negates the bullish tone to expose the next intermediate support at 15,380
Comment:
Bullish Dollar down Yen and Gold up
Powell's Dovish Comments Send Everything Soaring, Gold Hits All Time High As US Dollar Plummets
After November's furious meltup, which saw the S&P rise by 9% (the Nasdaq was up an even more ludicrous 11%), which was the best November for the stock market since 1980...
all eyes were on Jerome Powell today to see if the Fed chair would say something to stem the surging stock market tide following the month which saw the biggest easing in financial conditions on record, equivalent to nearly 4 rate cuts.
SPOT GOLD EXTENDS GAINS TO HIT ALL-TIME HIGH, LAST UP 1.5% AT $2,074 PER OUNCE
And while that may only add more fuel to the rate-cut speculation, at some point the softening in economic data will have to be squared with its impact on profits. As a reminder, while much of the interval between the last rate hike and the first rate cut is favorable for risk assets, the weeks right before the cut usually send stocks anywhere between 10% and 30% lower as the market realizes just why the Fed is panicking.
Powell's Dovish Comments Send Everything Soaring, Gold Hits All Time High As US Dollar Plummets
After November's furious meltup, which saw the S&P rise by 9% (the Nasdaq was up an even more ludicrous 11%), which was the best November for the stock market since 1980...
all eyes were on Jerome Powell today to see if the Fed chair would say something to stem the surging stock market tide following the month which saw the biggest easing in financial conditions on record, equivalent to nearly 4 rate cuts.
SPOT GOLD EXTENDS GAINS TO HIT ALL-TIME HIGH, LAST UP 1.5% AT $2,074 PER OUNCE
And while that may only add more fuel to the rate-cut speculation, at some point the softening in economic data will have to be squared with its impact on profits. As a reminder, while much of the interval between the last rate hike and the first rate cut is favorable for risk assets, the weeks right before the cut usually send stocks anywhere between 10% and 30% lower as the market realizes just why the Fed is panicking.
Comment:
Bullish BUY
JOLTS Falling job openings could confirm US labor market is losing steam ISM up
NDX long NEXT Target 16150-16200
JOLTS Falling job openings could confirm US labor market is losing steam ISM up
NDX long NEXT Target 16150-16200
Comment:
US100
bullish
US Trade Balance down, Dollar down, shares up, Nasdaq bullish, Profit Target 1 16200
US100
bullish US Trade Balance down, Dollar down, shares up, Nasdaq bullish, Profit Target 1 16200
Comment:
US100
Bullish
CRUDE OIL strong bearish...Further Signals below...
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change far below expectations 103K ,Forecast was 131. The US economy is slowing down, ,good for NQ, as Inflation forecasting down now.Interest rates sentiment is increasing.Bullish sentiment is now above 74% Bearih sentiment below 18.75. NQ COT report(lat Friday shows commercials start to buy NQ). Posible FED Fund cut early next year,Feb/Mach 2024.
Further signals: Crude Oil WTI,.... Bearih short, Gold Bullish, BTCUSD Bullish, EURUSD Bullih, GBPUD BULLISH, USDJPY bearih, EURJPY bearish, GBPJPY bearih, DAX40(Germany40) bullish, EU50 bullih, Dow Jones Bullish; US Dollar down bearish, RTY bullish, Coffee Arabica Bullish, Palladium Bearish, Platinum bullish, Ethereum UD Bullish
US100
Bullish CRUDE OIL strong bearish...Further Signals below...
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change far below expectations 103K ,Forecast was 131. The US economy is slowing down, ,good for NQ, as Inflation forecasting down now.Interest rates sentiment is increasing.Bullish sentiment is now above 74% Bearih sentiment below 18.75. NQ COT report(lat Friday shows commercials start to buy NQ). Posible FED Fund cut early next year,Feb/Mach 2024.
Further signals: Crude Oil WTI,.... Bearih short, Gold Bullish, BTCUSD Bullish, EURUSD Bullih, GBPUD BULLISH, USDJPY bearih, EURJPY bearish, GBPJPY bearih, DAX40(Germany40) bullish, EU50 bullih, Dow Jones Bullish; US Dollar down bearish, RTY bullish, Coffee Arabica Bullish, Palladium Bearish, Platinum bullish, Ethereum UD Bullish
Comment:
US100
Strong bullih now 245min. TF beginning to pump
16050, 16182,16200,16250 next If breaing that level we will see soon ALL TIME High of Nadaq 2021. 16775 after that, and then 17000 ..not necesarily today, as tomorrow and on Friday further Inflation data. the Bias is bullish.. but at the end of this week or until the end of 2023..(unles the economy continues to cool down). Other catalysts lie sudden middle east war, could stop the bullish trend and revere it..But currently Israel starts the diplomatic talks, thats good for U shares and Nasdaq
US100
Strong bullih now 245min. TF beginning to pump 16050, 16182,16200,16250 next If breaing that level we will see soon ALL TIME High of Nadaq 2021. 16775 after that, and then 17000 ..not necesarily today, as tomorrow and on Friday further Inflation data. the Bias is bullish.. but at the end of this week or until the end of 2023..(unles the economy continues to cool down). Other catalysts lie sudden middle east war, could stop the bullish trend and revere it..But currently Israel starts the diplomatic talks, thats good for U shares and Nasdaq
Comment:
US100
bullish
But dont buy yet.WAIT!!! The uptrend will revere again.
Unemployment Claims unchanged, but Job cuts increase, Inflation down. currently 30 min. trend is down, wait to change the 30 min. trend bullish, and then buy the weekly support at 15747-15800. Today is no trend day, meaning we buy, and set profit targets. Bonds high,but US Dollar down, We posibly go down to upport and sideways, as the market waiting for tomorrows important Non-Farm Employment Change
US100
bullish But dont buy yet.WAIT!!! The uptrend will revere again.
Unemployment Claims unchanged, but Job cuts increase, Inflation down. currently 30 min. trend is down, wait to change the 30 min. trend bullish, and then buy the weekly support at 15747-15800. Today is no trend day, meaning we buy, and set profit targets. Bonds high,but US Dollar down, We posibly go down to upport and sideways, as the market waiting for tomorrows important Non-Farm Employment Change
Comment:
TREND BULLISH (All trend Daily to 52W, 18 Trends are strongly Bullish) .If some lower TF (e.i. D,2D,3D,5D get bearish, it will be oppurtunity to take ONLY!!!! Bullih Trades.In this cae we only trade long, but set Profit targets!Once PT ha reached, we just wait for another bullish Buy trade. We avoide 100%-ly taking hort trades in this phae of the market, as the strong bullish power will retrace fast,or selling trade will end in low volatile sideways shift).
IMPORTANT US DATA ARE:
Federal Funds Rate VERY IMPORTANT FED MEETING NEXT WEDNESDAY Dec.13th 2023
Current FED rates at 5.25/5.5
Estimation no rate hikes : 97,7%
Estimation rate-cuts(easing) :2,3%
FRIDAY DATA 8th Dec: Very important
-Non-Farm Employment Change if unchanged or below etimates ,good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Unemployment Rate: If greater than forecast good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Average Hourly Earnings m/m if less than forecast, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations:If less than expected, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
Technical Bullish Signals: Gold broke above important Reistance 2084, but could not held above. Trend is bullish. My Buy signals and Long trades are active
Important bullish supports to buy again are:
15750,15658,15628,,15800,15850 above16905
Targets
16050
16125
16202
16250
16358
16407
16442
16609
16678
16723
16814
If Fundamentals change,and the sentiment starts to get bearih, and 52W Bullish Trend change to ,,Sell-Off,,We will liquidate all Bullih poitions and will immediately ell Nasdaq. Also USDollar and Bonds trend change will influence our decisions.
IMPORTANT US DATA ARE:
Federal Funds Rate VERY IMPORTANT FED MEETING NEXT WEDNESDAY Dec.13th 2023
Current FED rates at 5.25/5.5
Estimation no rate hikes : 97,7%
Estimation rate-cuts(easing) :2,3%
FRIDAY DATA 8th Dec: Very important
-Non-Farm Employment Change if unchanged or below etimates ,good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Unemployment Rate: If greater than forecast good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Average Hourly Earnings m/m if less than forecast, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations:If less than expected, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
Technical Bullish Signals: Gold broke above important Reistance 2084, but could not held above. Trend is bullish. My Buy signals and Long trades are active
Important bullish supports to buy again are:
15750,15658,15628,,15800,15850 above16905
Targets
16050
16125
16202
16250
16358
16407
16442
16609
16678
16723
16814
If Fundamentals change,and the sentiment starts to get bearih, and 52W Bullish Trend change to ,,Sell-Off,,We will liquidate all Bullih poitions and will immediately ell Nasdaq. Also USDollar and Bonds trend change will influence our decisions.
Comment:
Strong US Job Growth Seen in November as Strikes End; Trend Slowing
Also detailled explanation of todays trading on my live stream
US100 Nasdaq Non-Farm Payroll 8th DEC 2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/k4EtkecpNk/
Inter- and Intra market divergence.... Mixed data(so we are waiting to catch the bet potential price. Patience is key.
U.S. job growth likely picked up in November as thousands of automobile workers and actors returned after strikes, but the underlying trend will probably point to a cooling labor market.
Also detailled explanation of todays trading on my live stream
US100 Nasdaq Non-Farm Payroll 8th DEC 2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/k4EtkecpNk/
Inter- and Intra market divergence.... Mixed data(so we are waiting to catch the bet potential price. Patience is key.
U.S. job growth likely picked up in November as thousands of automobile workers and actors returned after strikes, but the underlying trend will probably point to a cooling labor market.
Comment:
Strong Bullih
Target 16200 reached. Next Target 16775-16550
FOMC MEETING
on 13th Dec 2023
99% Probability of ,,NO RATE HIKE,,
That is boosting Gold, Shares and Nasdaq
Current US Dollar recovery is caused by Profit Taking
Target 16200 reached. Next Target 16775-16550
FOMC MEETING
on 13th Dec 2023
99% Probability of ,,NO RATE HIKE,,
That is boosting Gold, Shares and Nasdaq
Current US Dollar recovery is caused by Profit Taking
Comment:
Strong Bullish
Target 16200 reached. Next Target 16775-16550
FOMC MEETING
on 13th Dec 2023
99% Probability of ,,NO RATE HIKE,,
That is boosting Gold, Shares and Nasdaq
Current US Dollar recovery is caused by Profit Taking
Target 16200 reached. Next Target 16775-16550
FOMC MEETING
on 13th Dec 2023
99% Probability of ,,NO RATE HIKE,,
That is boosting Gold, Shares and Nasdaq
Current US Dollar recovery is caused by Profit Taking
Comment:
Strong Bullish
All trends long term/Mid Term/ short term strong bullish
I added my Positions strongly
my last bullish buy is 16280
Next Potential target is 16529 16600-16620
if breaking above 16720-16750 16916 16978
ULTIMATE Next possible and potential Target is 21681-21881 if all funamentals and economic circumstances are positive for Nasdaq and shares(earning,rates cuts, good economic news, lower inflation rates,etc....also sinking yields,....)
This analysis is based on average long term midterm and short term analysis.
Short term we will ofcourse see drops, profit taings, short term trend reversals, etc.
My trading style i based on agressive and conservative position sizing, but also agressive and conservative profit taking, immediate Position closing or entries. That make I am gonna make sure to take advantage of long term, mid term,but also short term oppurtunitie, but most importantly minimizing rik and maximizing gain potentials as long as possible. There is no room for emotions, or too much tactical and technical disussions, as I strongly follow my signals mechanical which are based on my Trading Playbook.
I dont use any more and any longer oscillators, like I did in the past, but keep focused on fundamental and technical market convergences, that will show me not only long term buy and hold strategy, but intermediate buy and sells.
Lower Time frame velow 1 H are not interesting for me. The lower than Daily TF have no meanings and impacts to buy or sell, but they show me just the current market sentiments for a shorter time, but in comparision to higher TF only.
All trends long term/Mid Term/ short term strong bullish
I added my Positions strongly
my last bullish buy is 16280
Next Potential target is 16529 16600-16620
if breaking above 16720-16750 16916 16978
ULTIMATE Next possible and potential Target is 21681-21881 if all funamentals and economic circumstances are positive for Nasdaq and shares(earning,rates cuts, good economic news, lower inflation rates,etc....also sinking yields,....)
This analysis is based on average long term midterm and short term analysis.
Short term we will ofcourse see drops, profit taings, short term trend reversals, etc.
My trading style i based on agressive and conservative position sizing, but also agressive and conservative profit taking, immediate Position closing or entries. That make I am gonna make sure to take advantage of long term, mid term,but also short term oppurtunitie, but most importantly minimizing rik and maximizing gain potentials as long as possible. There is no room for emotions, or too much tactical and technical disussions, as I strongly follow my signals mechanical which are based on my Trading Playbook.
I dont use any more and any longer oscillators, like I did in the past, but keep focused on fundamental and technical market convergences, that will show me not only long term buy and hold strategy, but intermediate buy and sells.
Lower Time frame velow 1 H are not interesting for me. The lower than Daily TF have no meanings and impacts to buy or sell, but they show me just the current market sentiments for a shorter time, but in comparision to higher TF only.
Comment:
FED FUNDS RATES UNCHANGED
bullish
STRONG BUY
we added positions
bullish
STRONG BUY
we added positions
Comment:
I am BULLISH strongly on this pair now, and will update if, based on my trading systems, trend reversals, position reducing, take profits, or trend change happens
Comment:
Fed Pivot Toward Interest Rate Cuts in 2024 and Gold’s Bullish Response
The Federal Reserve concluded its last FOMC meeting of the year, and as expected, they kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Seventeen voting members are all predicting interest rate cuts next year, with five officials projecting a decrease of ¾%, five officials anticipating a larger rate cut than ¾%, and the remaining two voting members anticipating no rate cuts next year. According to their economic projections, the Fed believes core inflation will peak at 2.4% next year, which is lower than its projections in September of 2.6%.
The Federal Reserve is also projecting inflation will cool to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Their projections anticipate unemployment rising to 4.1% in 2024 and remaining at that level through 2026. The Fed also anticipates an economic deceleration forecasting growth at 1.4% next year, and rising to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026
The Federal Reserve concluded its last FOMC meeting of the year, and as expected, they kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Seventeen voting members are all predicting interest rate cuts next year, with five officials projecting a decrease of ¾%, five officials anticipating a larger rate cut than ¾%, and the remaining two voting members anticipating no rate cuts next year. According to their economic projections, the Fed believes core inflation will peak at 2.4% next year, which is lower than its projections in September of 2.6%.
The Federal Reserve is also projecting inflation will cool to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Their projections anticipate unemployment rising to 4.1% in 2024 and remaining at that level through 2026. The Fed also anticipates an economic deceleration forecasting growth at 1.4% next year, and rising to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026
Comment:
Treasury yields hit lowest since August, fueling market optimism
U.S. stock futures climb as Fed hints at 2024 rate cuts; Dow hits all-time high.
Fed Open Market Committee keeps rates steady; markets react positively to dovish outlook.
Post-Fed, Treasury yields drop to lowest since August, signaling economic optimism.
U.S. stock futures experienced a significant uplift Wednesday night, following the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts in 2024.
US DOLLAR DOWN YIELDS DOWN ASSETS vs Dollar UP
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, the revelation of potential rate cuts in 2024 spurred a positive shift in market sentiment. The Fed’s decision, signifying the potential end of a cycle that included 11 rate hikes, has been viewed as a pivot towards a softer monetary policy approach
Impact on Treasury Yields
The Fed’s announcement influenced Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting its lowest since August. The dovish outlook implies further cuts through 2025 and 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to 2%-2.25%. This forecast aligns with a brighter inflation outlook, as indicated by recent consumer and wholesale price data
Solar Stocks Respond Positively
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) saw a significant increase, with constituent stocks like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun recording notable gains. This uptrend reflects the solar industry’s sensitivity to interest rates, as lower rates could reduce financing costs and improve valuations.
The E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index, currently priced at 16839.75, is exhibiting bullish tendencies. It stands above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicative of a strong upward trend in both medium and short-term perspectives.
The index is also trading above the main support level at 15717.75 and minor support at 16203.25, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment. The absence of defined minor and main resistance levels suggests there might be less overhead resistance to upward movement.
Overall, the market sentiment for the E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index appears to be strongly bullish, supported by its positioning above key moving averages and support levels.
In recent weeks, US futures have not only brought interest rate cuts forward but they have also increased the number of hikes anticipated in 2024. Markets price in the possibility of a 25 basis point cut as early as May next year and factor in just under 100 basis points in total, or four cuts of 25 bps each). As such the dollar and US yields have sold off and trade a fair distance from their respective peaks.
U.S. stock futures climb as Fed hints at 2024 rate cuts; Dow hits all-time high.
Fed Open Market Committee keeps rates steady; markets react positively to dovish outlook.
Post-Fed, Treasury yields drop to lowest since August, signaling economic optimism.
U.S. stock futures experienced a significant uplift Wednesday night, following the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts in 2024.
US DOLLAR DOWN YIELDS DOWN ASSETS vs Dollar UP
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, the revelation of potential rate cuts in 2024 spurred a positive shift in market sentiment. The Fed’s decision, signifying the potential end of a cycle that included 11 rate hikes, has been viewed as a pivot towards a softer monetary policy approach
Impact on Treasury Yields
The Fed’s announcement influenced Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting its lowest since August. The dovish outlook implies further cuts through 2025 and 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to 2%-2.25%. This forecast aligns with a brighter inflation outlook, as indicated by recent consumer and wholesale price data
Solar Stocks Respond Positively
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) saw a significant increase, with constituent stocks like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun recording notable gains. This uptrend reflects the solar industry’s sensitivity to interest rates, as lower rates could reduce financing costs and improve valuations.
The E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index, currently priced at 16839.75, is exhibiting bullish tendencies. It stands above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicative of a strong upward trend in both medium and short-term perspectives.
The index is also trading above the main support level at 15717.75 and minor support at 16203.25, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment. The absence of defined minor and main resistance levels suggests there might be less overhead resistance to upward movement.
Overall, the market sentiment for the E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index appears to be strongly bullish, supported by its positioning above key moving averages and support levels.
In recent weeks, US futures have not only brought interest rate cuts forward but they have also increased the number of hikes anticipated in 2024. Markets price in the possibility of a 25 basis point cut as early as May next year and factor in just under 100 basis points in total, or four cuts of 25 bps each). As such the dollar and US yields have sold off and trade a fair distance from their respective peaks.
Comment:
Trend bulllish but strong Profit taking,
excuted positions,waiting for new buy
excuted positions,waiting for new buy
Comment:
New Buy: added at 16612 15:35 est 10% more position,becaue new buy sgnal, Trend bullish
Comment:
Bullish trades szil activve, This week US GDP on Thurseday and PMI Friday data are very important
Comment:
trend still bullish
Target 1 17630
Target 1 17630
Comment:
added longs at 16759
Trend strong bullish
first target 17630
Trend strong bullish
first target 17630
Comment:
Trend bullish
Use the dip to buy more
Target 17630
We are in strong bull trend, if bears come, I use thier energy to buy more.That´ it.
top day trading.Become trend follower. Thats key to your success.
Use the dip to buy more
Target 17630
We are in strong bull trend, if bears come, I use thier energy to buy more.That´ it.
top day trading.Become trend follower. Thats key to your success.
Comment:
Added more longs at 16586
Comment:
GDP flat
Unemployment claims up
Nasdaq strong bullish
Target 1 17630
We tay bullish, while using chances to increase our longs
Unemployment claims up
Nasdaq strong bullish
Target 1 17630
We tay bullish, while using chances to increase our longs
Comment:
US100
Bullish
For Daytrading levels only
Dont Buy this price 16669,
But buy 16607,16581,1644716334,16197
Sell(TP Only): 16770,16820 16865
US100
Bullish For Daytrading levels only
Dont Buy this price 16669,
But buy 16607,16581,1644716334,16197
Sell(TP Only): 16770,16820 16865
Comment:
Dec 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, recovering from a broad sell-off on Wall Street in the prior session as investors clung on to hopes of borrowing costs easing next year, while chipmaker Micron advanced after delivering an upbeat forecast.
The three main indexes ended the previous session lower, with the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX notching its worst day since late September following a recent rally that saw the index within a percentage of its record closing high hit in early 2022.
Reaching a new closing high would confirm the benchmark index had been in a bull market since closing at the bear market floor in October 2022.
The rally gained steam after policymakers took an unexpected dovish change in tone on monetary policy outlook a week ago, sending yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. treasury note US10YT=RR lower to 3.878% from multi-year highs it scaled in October. US/
Despite some push back from Federal Reserve officials, traders still expect at least a 25 basis points rate cut in as early as March next year, and a near 100% chance of a rate cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On tap at 8:30 a.m. ET is the final domestic economic growth (GDP) estimate for the third quarter which is expected to stay unchanged from previous forecasts of 5.2%. Also due are weekly claims for state unemployment benefits that are expected to tick higher to 215,000, as per a Reuters poll.
The data points could throw light on the state of the U.S. economy in the wake of the Fed's fastest monetary tightening spree in years.
Meanwhile, Micron Technology MU.O forecast quarterly revenue above market estimates, and its shares jumped 5.5% before the bell on signs of a memory chip recovery in 2024 after one of the most significant downturns in years.
Other chip makers like Nvidia NVDA.O and Advanced Micro Devices AMD.O added over 1% each.
At 5:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 were up 144 points, or 0.38%, S&P 500 e-minis EScv1 were up 20.75 points, or 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcV1 were up 98.75 points, or 0.59%.
The three main indexes ended the previous session lower, with the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX notching its worst day since late September following a recent rally that saw the index within a percentage of its record closing high hit in early 2022.
Reaching a new closing high would confirm the benchmark index had been in a bull market since closing at the bear market floor in October 2022.
The rally gained steam after policymakers took an unexpected dovish change in tone on monetary policy outlook a week ago, sending yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. treasury note US10YT=RR lower to 3.878% from multi-year highs it scaled in October. US/
Despite some push back from Federal Reserve officials, traders still expect at least a 25 basis points rate cut in as early as March next year, and a near 100% chance of a rate cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On tap at 8:30 a.m. ET is the final domestic economic growth (GDP) estimate for the third quarter which is expected to stay unchanged from previous forecasts of 5.2%. Also due are weekly claims for state unemployment benefits that are expected to tick higher to 215,000, as per a Reuters poll.
The data points could throw light on the state of the U.S. economy in the wake of the Fed's fastest monetary tightening spree in years.
Meanwhile, Micron Technology MU.O forecast quarterly revenue above market estimates, and its shares jumped 5.5% before the bell on signs of a memory chip recovery in 2024 after one of the most significant downturns in years.
Other chip makers like Nvidia NVDA.O and Advanced Micro Devices AMD.O added over 1% each.
At 5:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 were up 144 points, or 0.38%, S&P 500 e-minis EScv1 were up 20.75 points, or 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcV1 were up 98.75 points, or 0.59%.
Comment:
Other chip makers like Nvidia NVDA.O and Advanced Micro Devices AMD.O added over 1% each.
At 5:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 were up 144 points, or 0.38%, S&P 500 e-minis Escv1 were up 20.75 points, or 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcV1 were up 98.75 points, or 0.59%.
Boeing BA.N climbed 1.9% as the planemaker is set to restart deliveries of its 787 Dreamliner to China within days, a source told Reuters, a step that could pave the way for China to also end a more than four-year freeze on deliveries of Boeing's profit-making 737 MAX.
U.S. electric vehicle makers like Tesla TSLA.O Nikola NKLA.O and Lucid Group added between 1.2% and 4.0% after a report said the United States was considering tariff hikes on Chinese EV manufacturers.
U.S.-listed shares of BlackBerry BB.N BB.TO slid 5.4% after the Canadian technology firm forecast fourth-quarter revenue below analysts' expectations.
At 5:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 were up 144 points, or 0.38%, S&P 500 e-minis Escv1 were up 20.75 points, or 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcV1 were up 98.75 points, or 0.59%.
Boeing BA.N climbed 1.9% as the planemaker is set to restart deliveries of its 787 Dreamliner to China within days, a source told Reuters, a step that could pave the way for China to also end a more than four-year freeze on deliveries of Boeing's profit-making 737 MAX.
U.S. electric vehicle makers like Tesla TSLA.O Nikola NKLA.O and Lucid Group added between 1.2% and 4.0% after a report said the United States was considering tariff hikes on Chinese EV manufacturers.
U.S.-listed shares of BlackBerry BB.N BB.TO slid 5.4% after the Canadian technology firm forecast fourth-quarter revenue below analysts' expectations.
Comment:
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee
Asian shares stalled on Thursday after a late sharp selloff on Wall Street that left traders scratching their heads.
Perhaps investors are shutting up shop for the year, or taking some of their profits off the table before Friday's U.S. inflation data. The Nasdaq 100 NDX is up 51% for the year, despite Wednesday's 1.5% slide.
Oil slipped a fraction, but the market remains skittish as shippers scramble to avoid the Red Sea after a wave of attacks. Washington has launched an initiative to improve security at the maritime bottleneck but few practical details have emerged so far.
Toyota Motor 7203.T shares slumped as Japan's transport ministry inspected a subsidiary over safety concerns dating back decades.
The juggernaut of market euphoria from last week's dovish shift in the Federal Reserve outlook, meanwhile, rolled on in the rates market, bolstered by a rapid cooling of British inflation.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield US10YT=RR was last at 3.8622%, near the previous session's five-month low of 3.8470% and down 116 basis points from October's high.
The two-year yield US2YT-RR, which typically reflects near-term interest rate expectations, was similarly pinned near a seven-month trough. Two-year gilt yields dived more than 18 bps on Wednesday after data showed a far steeper decline in British inflation last month than anticipated.
Fed funds futures point to more than 150 basis points of cuts next year O#FF:, and similar expectations are now emerging around the Bank of England, with more than 100 bps of cuts similarly priced in for that central bank in 2024 0# BOEWATCH.
The last big piece of data before Christmas is Friday's U.S. core PCE price index reading - the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, where another slowdown is expected.
Asian shares stalled on Thursday after a late sharp selloff on Wall Street that left traders scratching their heads.
Perhaps investors are shutting up shop for the year, or taking some of their profits off the table before Friday's U.S. inflation data. The Nasdaq 100 NDX is up 51% for the year, despite Wednesday's 1.5% slide.
Oil slipped a fraction, but the market remains skittish as shippers scramble to avoid the Red Sea after a wave of attacks. Washington has launched an initiative to improve security at the maritime bottleneck but few practical details have emerged so far.
Toyota Motor 7203.T shares slumped as Japan's transport ministry inspected a subsidiary over safety concerns dating back decades.
The juggernaut of market euphoria from last week's dovish shift in the Federal Reserve outlook, meanwhile, rolled on in the rates market, bolstered by a rapid cooling of British inflation.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield US10YT=RR was last at 3.8622%, near the previous session's five-month low of 3.8470% and down 116 basis points from October's high.
The two-year yield US2YT-RR, which typically reflects near-term interest rate expectations, was similarly pinned near a seven-month trough. Two-year gilt yields dived more than 18 bps on Wednesday after data showed a far steeper decline in British inflation last month than anticipated.
Fed funds futures point to more than 150 basis points of cuts next year O#FF:, and similar expectations are now emerging around the Bank of England, with more than 100 bps of cuts similarly priced in for that central bank in 2024 0# BOEWATCH.
The last big piece of data before Christmas is Friday's U.S. core PCE price index reading - the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, where another slowdown is expected.
Comment:
U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, recovering from a broad sell-off on Wall Street in the prior session as investors clung on to hopes of borrowing costs easing next year, while chipmaker Micron advanced after delivering an upbeat forecast. .N
At 7:06 ET, Dow e-minis 1YMc1 were up 0.40% at 37,593. S&P 500 e-minis ESC1 were up 0.43% at 4,770, while Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQc1 were up 0.61% at 16,867.75.
The top three NYSE percentage gainers premarket .PRPG.NQ:
** Terran Orbital Corporation, up 13.9%
**Allego NV, up 11.9%
** Sos Limited Adr, up 10.3%
The top three NYSE percentage losers premarket .PRPL.NQ:
** Regis Corporation, down 59.5%
** Ameren Corporation, down 56% ** Enzo Biochem Inc, down 7%
The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers premarket .PRPG.O: ** Infrared Cameras Holdings Inc, up 137.0%
** Hookipa Pharma Inc, up 108.8%
** Shengfeng Development Ltd, up 43.3%
The top three Nasdaq percentage losers premarket .PRPL.0:
** Sarcos Technology And Robotics Corporation, down 43.6% ** Nogin Inc, down 29.7%
** Upexi Inc, down 25.4%
** BlackBerry Ltd BB.N: down 4.4% premarket
BUZZ - ADRs slide as Q4 revenue forecast falls below estimates
** Micron Technology Inc MU.O: up 6.0% premarket BUZZ-Jumps after results, forecast top expectations
*k
*Boeing Co BA.N: up 1.7% premarket
BUZZ-Up on report China to approve first 787 delivery since April 2021
At 7:06 ET, Dow e-minis 1YMc1 were up 0.40% at 37,593. S&P 500 e-minis ESC1 were up 0.43% at 4,770, while Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQc1 were up 0.61% at 16,867.75.
The top three NYSE percentage gainers premarket .PRPG.NQ:
** Terran Orbital Corporation, up 13.9%
**Allego NV, up 11.9%
** Sos Limited Adr, up 10.3%
The top three NYSE percentage losers premarket .PRPL.NQ:
** Regis Corporation, down 59.5%
** Ameren Corporation, down 56% ** Enzo Biochem Inc, down 7%
The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers premarket .PRPG.O: ** Infrared Cameras Holdings Inc, up 137.0%
** Hookipa Pharma Inc, up 108.8%
** Shengfeng Development Ltd, up 43.3%
The top three Nasdaq percentage losers premarket .PRPL.0:
** Sarcos Technology And Robotics Corporation, down 43.6% ** Nogin Inc, down 29.7%
** Upexi Inc, down 25.4%
** BlackBerry Ltd BB.N: down 4.4% premarket
BUZZ - ADRs slide as Q4 revenue forecast falls below estimates
** Micron Technology Inc MU.O: up 6.0% premarket BUZZ-Jumps after results, forecast top expectations
*k
*Boeing Co BA.N: up 1.7% premarket
BUZZ-Up on report China to approve first 787 delivery since April 2021
Comment:
Trend bullsh. Stay bullish,
Investors are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will face faster, deeper rate cuts, with money market expectations running far ahead of the Fed’s own rate expectations for 2024.
Investors are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will face faster, deeper rate cuts, with money market expectations running far ahead of the Fed’s own rate expectations for 2024.
Comment:
US: Yield curve inversion narrows before inflation data
The inversion in the closely watched two-year, 10-year Treasury yield curve narrowed on Thursday, with shorter-dated yields falling while longer-dated ones rose, before inflation data on Friday may give fresh hints on likely Federal Reserve policy. The inversion in this part of the yield curve typically narrows and then turns positive when the economy slows as investors price in rate cuts, sending shorter-dated yields down faster than the longer-dated ones. Yields have tumbled in recent weeks on expectations that the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates as inflation moderates faster than was previously anticipated.
The inversion in the closely watched two-year, 10-year Treasury yield curve narrowed on Thursday, with shorter-dated yields falling while longer-dated ones rose, before inflation data on Friday may give fresh hints on likely Federal Reserve policy. The inversion in this part of the yield curve typically narrows and then turns positive when the economy slows as investors price in rate cuts, sending shorter-dated yields down faster than the longer-dated ones. Yields have tumbled in recent weeks on expectations that the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates as inflation moderates faster than was previously anticipated.
Comment:
The data will offer new insight into whether inflation is continuing to moderate, which would boost the chances that the U.S. central bank will cut rates in the coming months.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday are expected to show that headline prices were unchanged in November, while core prices rose by 0.2%, according to economists polled by Reuters. USPCE=ECI, USPCEM=ECI
Trading is expected to be volatile, however, with many investors on holiday and asset managers having closed their trading books for the year. The bond market will also close early at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT) on Friday and be closed on Monday for the Christmas Day holiday.
Benchmark 10-year yields briefly dipped to the lowest since late July earlier on Thursday after the consumer spending element of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised downward to 3.1%, from 3.6% in the previous estimate, pulling overall GDP down to 4.9% from the previous estimate of 5.2%.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday are expected to show that headline prices were unchanged in November, while core prices rose by 0.2%, according to economists polled by Reuters. USPCE=ECI, USPCEM=ECI
Trading is expected to be volatile, however, with many investors on holiday and asset managers having closed their trading books for the year. The bond market will also close early at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT) on Friday and be closed on Monday for the Christmas Day holiday.
Benchmark 10-year yields briefly dipped to the lowest since late July earlier on Thursday after the consumer spending element of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised downward to 3.1%, from 3.6% in the previous estimate, pulling overall GDP down to 4.9% from the previous estimate of 5.2%.
Comment:
As 2024 comes into view, investors, economists, business leaders and everyday consumers from London to Lyons to Los Angeles share a common hope: Let the interest rate cuts begin!
Central banks from most major developed economies closed out 2023 with a blitz of policy meetings in December that effectively shut the books on the aggressive rate hikes that have dominated the economic and financial landscape since 2022. The lone outlier, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), never managed to kill off its negative rates policy and signaled this week at the year's final meeting of a Group of Seven central bHolding rates steady as inflation rates slow further is another form of policy tightening that may not be appropriate for much longer.
That is something some Fed officials have begun openly bandying about as a reason for the rate cuts they flagged last week as being in the cards next year, especially if they hope to deliver a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy.anks that a shift away from that stance was not imminent. Keeping rates restrictive for longer than necessary risks a harsher outcome, one featuring a rapid slowdown in economic activity, a painful rise in unemployment and a recession that much of the world has managed to dodge so far despite that scenario being the more traditional end to rate-hike cycles.
Rate-sensitive economic sectors everywhere - such as housing and manufacturing - have felt the pinch of higher rates for more than a year.
Central banks from most major developed economies closed out 2023 with a blitz of policy meetings in December that effectively shut the books on the aggressive rate hikes that have dominated the economic and financial landscape since 2022. The lone outlier, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), never managed to kill off its negative rates policy and signaled this week at the year's final meeting of a Group of Seven central bHolding rates steady as inflation rates slow further is another form of policy tightening that may not be appropriate for much longer.
That is something some Fed officials have begun openly bandying about as a reason for the rate cuts they flagged last week as being in the cards next year, especially if they hope to deliver a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy.anks that a shift away from that stance was not imminent. Keeping rates restrictive for longer than necessary risks a harsher outcome, one featuring a rapid slowdown in economic activity, a painful rise in unemployment and a recession that much of the world has managed to dodge so far despite that scenario being the more traditional end to rate-hike cycles.
Rate-sensitive economic sectors everywhere - such as housing and manufacturing - have felt the pinch of higher rates for more than a year.
Comment:
Is the 'Big Ease' coming in 2024 or will rate-cut hopes get dashed?
www.tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
US100 BullishTrading STREATEGY
ANALYSIS
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
www.tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
www.tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
US100 BullishTrading STREATEGY
ANALYSIS
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
www.tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
Comment:
Stay Bullish! Ignore bears, cuz you will lose BIG! The trend i strong bullish! tREND FOLLOWING IS NOT ,,Buy and Hold,, or ,,Sell and Hold,, Trend following is the most intelligent way to trade. Google that. Here some spread the rumoure that Trend following is buy and hold and ynonym for Investing. That is completley 100% ly wrong.If you have question how to learn it ,,for FREE,,!!! Ask me.
Is the 'Big Ease' coming in 2024 or will rate-cut hopes get dashed?
www.tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
Trend bullish, US Short-Term Inflation Expectations Hit Lowest Since 2021
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Cool, Reinforcing Rate-Cut
Now FED in hurry how much faster to cut the rates and NQ celebrating that
ADDED 15% more positions.First Profit taking: 17630
First correction aid to the next swing: 17135
Is the 'Big Ease' coming in 2024 or will rate-cut hopes get dashed?
www.tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
Trend bullish, US Short-Term Inflation Expectations Hit Lowest Since 2021
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Cool, Reinforcing Rate-Cut
Now FED in hurry how much faster to cut the rates and NQ celebrating that
ADDED 15% more positions.First Profit taking: 17630
First correction aid to the next swing: 17135
Comment:
US Short-Term Inflation Expectations Hit Lowest Since 2021
US consumers remained sanguine about the inflation outlook as 2023 drew to a close, contributing to a robust rebound in sentiment. Americans expect prices will climb at a 3.1% rate over the next year, according to the final December reading from the University of Michigan, matching the preliminary figure and the lowest since March 2021. They see costs rising 2.9% over the next five to 10 years, data Friday showed. The initial reading was 2.8%. The index of consumer sentiment increased to a five-month high of 69.7, from 61.3 in November.
US consumers remained sanguine about the inflation outlook as 2023 drew to a close, contributing to a robust rebound in sentiment. Americans expect prices will climb at a 3.1% rate over the next year, according to the final December reading from the University of Michigan, matching the preliminary figure and the lowest since March 2021. They see costs rising 2.9% over the next five to 10 years, data Friday showed. The initial reading was 2.8%. The index of consumer sentiment increased to a five-month high of 69.7, from 61.3 in November.
Comment:
Is the 'Big Ease' coming in 2024 or will rate-cut hopes get dashed?
www.tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
So far the market has closed succesfully above the prior high, while making ew all time highs. Also the inflation hit lowest low ince 2021, and the sentient is bullish. FED has been surprised , and now got reinforced to cut the rates as soon as possible, not waiting till May and intending to keep focus on soft landing Techniclly Higher high and Higher lows (sure not on 1 minute chart etc...that is so meaningless) I believe we will go higher Also the fundamentals are exactly the oppositie s NQ made its all time highs in 2021. But as trader we now:Always being prepared, and the Price is always right!
www.tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
So far the market has closed succesfully above the prior high, while making ew all time highs. Also the inflation hit lowest low ince 2021, and the sentient is bullish. FED has been surprised , and now got reinforced to cut the rates as soon as possible, not waiting till May and intending to keep focus on soft landing Techniclly Higher high and Higher lows (sure not on 1 minute chart etc...that is so meaningless) I believe we will go higher Also the fundamentals are exactly the oppositie s NQ made its all time highs in 2021. But as trader we now:Always being prepared, and the Price is always right!
Comment:
This week I wont tae any trades, as becuz oof 29th DEC: THE MARKET COULD BE NERVOUSE(Last Cloing of the year+Profit takings). My Positions are bullish, but I am looking forward to tae advantages of some bearish move, if possible(Hedging).
The probability that the market goes back to some potential Support is existing16658,16603,16483.if breaking below 16183). Peronally I want the NQ going back,and close lower, cuz the January Opening above that level(if In January NQ opens above Dec.Close and closes also above Dec2023 Close until 5th of Janury 2024,then the probability to have higher all time highs will increase). If not we will face a choppy volatile market. So that way Bulls should be aware,but happy if NQ going lowerr,the bear can benefit of temporarily shorts, and both can start good in the new year.
The probability that the market goes back to some potential Support is existing16658,16603,16483.if breaking below 16183). Peronally I want the NQ going back,and close lower, cuz the January Opening above that level(if In January NQ opens above Dec.Close and closes also above Dec2023 Close until 5th of Janury 2024,then the probability to have higher all time highs will increase). If not we will face a choppy volatile market. So that way Bulls should be aware,but happy if NQ going lowerr,the bear can benefit of temporarily shorts, and both can start good in the new year.
Comment:
New All time High achieving
Asian stocks rise, dollar drifts as US rate cut bets rise
Dollar hovers near five-month low
Muted volumes on holiday thinned trade
Oil prices mixed as Middle East tensions in focus
Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, fell 0.1% last month.
The Federal Reserve has aggressively changed its rhetoric to engineer a significant easing of financial conditions
Asian stocks rise, dollar drifts as US rate cut bets rise
Dollar hovers near five-month low
Muted volumes on holiday thinned trade
Oil prices mixed as Middle East tensions in focus
Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, fell 0.1% last month.
The Federal Reserve has aggressively changed its rhetoric to engineer a significant easing of financial conditions
Comment:
Trend strong Bullish
Staying long, using pullbacks to add long positions, as long as tren is bullish, taking only buy or long trades.
Fundamentals
The U.S. dollar weakens, approaching its lowest level since late July
Few market catalysts on sight for the remainder of the week
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, retreated on Tuesday and flirted with its lowest levels since late July near 101.55 in a trading session characterized by thin liquidity, with many financial centers still closed for the Christmas holidays and ahead of the New Year's festivities.
Factoring in recent losses, the DXY index is down about 4.35% in the fourth quarter and about 1.9% in December. This drop is associated with the significant pullback in government bond yields, which have plummeted from the cycle high marked about two months ago.
The Fed’s pivot at its December FOMC meeting has reinforced ongoing market trends over the past couple of weeks. For context, the central bank embraced a dovish posture at its last gathering, signaling that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing in 2024, possibly as part of a strategy to prioritize growth over inflation.
With U.S. yields displaying a downward bias and a strong risk-on sentiment prevailing in equity markets, the U.S. dollar is likely to extend its decline in the short term. This could potentially lead to increased gains for gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD moving into the new year.
Focusing on important catalysts later this week, there are no major releases of note – a scenario that could create the right setting for a period of consolidation. Nevertheless, the dearth of impactful events doesn't guarantee subdued volatility or steady market conditions.
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, falls to its weakest point in nearly five months
With U.S. bond yields on a downward trajectory and market exuberance on full display on Wall Street, further losses could be in stored for the greenback heading into the last week of 2023
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, softened on Friday, hitting its weakest level in nearly five months at one point during the regular U.S. trading session, following encouraging data on consumer prices. For context, November core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, clocked in at 0.1% m-o-m, bringing the annual rate to 3.2% from 3.4%, one-tenth of a percent below consensus estimates - a sign that the trend continues to move in the right direction.
Factoring in the latest losses, the DXY index has fallen 4.1% in the fourth quarter and 1.8% in December, driven by the slump in government bond yields from the cycle’s highs.
Focusing on more recent price action, the Fed’s pivot last week has been the main source of U.S. dollar weakness over the past few days. Although the FOMC maintained the status quo at its last monetary policy meeting of the year, it admitted that it has begun to discuss rate cuts and signaled that it would slash borrowing costs several times by 2024.
The U.S. central bank’s dovish stance, which caught many investors off guard, has sparked a major downward correction in Treasury rates across the curve, pushing the 2-year note below 4.35% at some point this week - a notable retreat from its peak of 5.25% less than two months ago. The 10-year yield has also plummeted, trading beneath 3.9% on Friday after almost topping 5% in late October.
With U.S. yields skewed to the downside and market exuberance on full display on Wall Street, the U.S. dollar could deepen its near-term retracement. This could result in further upward momentum for gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD leading up to 2024, yet caution is warranted, with certain markets approaching potential overbought levels.
Staying long, using pullbacks to add long positions, as long as tren is bullish, taking only buy or long trades.
Fundamentals
The U.S. dollar weakens, approaching its lowest level since late July
Few market catalysts on sight for the remainder of the week
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, retreated on Tuesday and flirted with its lowest levels since late July near 101.55 in a trading session characterized by thin liquidity, with many financial centers still closed for the Christmas holidays and ahead of the New Year's festivities.
Factoring in recent losses, the DXY index is down about 4.35% in the fourth quarter and about 1.9% in December. This drop is associated with the significant pullback in government bond yields, which have plummeted from the cycle high marked about two months ago.
The Fed’s pivot at its December FOMC meeting has reinforced ongoing market trends over the past couple of weeks. For context, the central bank embraced a dovish posture at its last gathering, signaling that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing in 2024, possibly as part of a strategy to prioritize growth over inflation.
With U.S. yields displaying a downward bias and a strong risk-on sentiment prevailing in equity markets, the U.S. dollar is likely to extend its decline in the short term. This could potentially lead to increased gains for gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD moving into the new year.
Focusing on important catalysts later this week, there are no major releases of note – a scenario that could create the right setting for a period of consolidation. Nevertheless, the dearth of impactful events doesn't guarantee subdued volatility or steady market conditions.
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, falls to its weakest point in nearly five months
With U.S. bond yields on a downward trajectory and market exuberance on full display on Wall Street, further losses could be in stored for the greenback heading into the last week of 2023
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, softened on Friday, hitting its weakest level in nearly five months at one point during the regular U.S. trading session, following encouraging data on consumer prices. For context, November core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, clocked in at 0.1% m-o-m, bringing the annual rate to 3.2% from 3.4%, one-tenth of a percent below consensus estimates - a sign that the trend continues to move in the right direction.
Factoring in the latest losses, the DXY index has fallen 4.1% in the fourth quarter and 1.8% in December, driven by the slump in government bond yields from the cycle’s highs.
Focusing on more recent price action, the Fed’s pivot last week has been the main source of U.S. dollar weakness over the past few days. Although the FOMC maintained the status quo at its last monetary policy meeting of the year, it admitted that it has begun to discuss rate cuts and signaled that it would slash borrowing costs several times by 2024.
The U.S. central bank’s dovish stance, which caught many investors off guard, has sparked a major downward correction in Treasury rates across the curve, pushing the 2-year note below 4.35% at some point this week - a notable retreat from its peak of 5.25% less than two months ago. The 10-year yield has also plummeted, trading beneath 3.9% on Friday after almost topping 5% in late October.
With U.S. yields skewed to the downside and market exuberance on full display on Wall Street, the U.S. dollar could deepen its near-term retracement. This could result in further upward momentum for gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD leading up to 2024, yet caution is warranted, with certain markets approaching potential overbought levels.
Comment:
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Pivot Points
S3 16861.2
S2 16868.6
S1 16872.2
R1 16879.6
R2 16883.4
R3 16890.8
P 16876
Pivot Points
S3 16861.2
S2 16868.6
S1 16872.2
R1 16879.6
R2 16883.4
R3 16890.8
P 16876
Comment:
bullish
Wallstreet starts Profit taking now because of End of year closing tomorrow
Good news for Nasdaq today: FED much more under presure now:Joble claims again higher than expected to 217K.Fed expecting that the market celebrates the news, but as the market is smarter than.... is instead taking profits now...This is really good as the probability of NQ open above Dec 2023 close is increasing now....Wallstreet preparing that way to continue the ralley in 2024...The probability to cut FED Funds rate in January jumped from 0.2% to +17% in January 2024 baed on bloombergy news aganecy and FED dot rates. Cheers traders.Have a good start and winning year 2024
Wallstreet starts Profit taking now because of End of year closing tomorrow
Good news for Nasdaq today: FED much more under presure now:Joble claims again higher than expected to 217K.Fed expecting that the market celebrates the news, but as the market is smarter than.... is instead taking profits now...This is really good as the probability of NQ open above Dec 2023 close is increasing now....Wallstreet preparing that way to continue the ralley in 2024...The probability to cut FED Funds rate in January jumped from 0.2% to +17% in January 2024 baed on bloombergy news aganecy and FED dot rates. Cheers traders.Have a good start and winning year 2024
Comment:
Levels down to fill gap 16867-16877 16847 16809 Levels up buybACK TARGETS 16944,16958,16974(16976 is ALL TIME HIGH this is the firt target to get hunted in 2024, so I hope NQ goes down firt.If this happen, it will be awonderfull rally year for NQ in 2024)
Comment:
2024 : More New All-Time Highs Anticipated
After coming into midterm 2022 cautious and turning bearish after the market did not hit our January Indicator Trifecta and Russia invaded Ukraine, our 2023 Forecast was significantly more bullish calling for a “Choppy Start, Fed Pause Q1, Pre-Election Bull Emerges.
We sure got the choppy start with help from a mini run on some regional banks with too much exposure to crypto, which was in a bear market of its own, and low long-term rates in a rapidly rising rate environment. The Fed kept raising rates a little longer than we anticipated, pausing in July
The pre-election year bull market, however, came on with gusto, more than we expected at times. Many of you remember from our monthly webinars and commentaries that one of biggest concerns for our outlook in 2023 was that we were not bullish enough.
The seasonal weakness and volatility we anticipated arrived as expected in August, September and October, as it often does in pre-election years, especially after a “Hot July”
market. Then October delivered a near perfect late-month turnaround and queued up the Best Six Months to a tee.
All in all, with S&P 500 up 22.4% year-to-date at yesterday’s close, NASDAQ up 41.2%, DJIA at new all-time highs and the small cap Russell 2000 outpacing big caps since the October lows, as they are supposed to, our 2023 Forecast, while not perfect, was on track.
After coming into midterm 2022 cautious and turning bearish after the market did not hit our January Indicator Trifecta and Russia invaded Ukraine, our 2023 Forecast was significantly more bullish calling for a “Choppy Start, Fed Pause Q1, Pre-Election Bull Emerges.
We sure got the choppy start with help from a mini run on some regional banks with too much exposure to crypto, which was in a bear market of its own, and low long-term rates in a rapidly rising rate environment. The Fed kept raising rates a little longer than we anticipated, pausing in July
The pre-election year bull market, however, came on with gusto, more than we expected at times. Many of you remember from our monthly webinars and commentaries that one of biggest concerns for our outlook in 2023 was that we were not bullish enough.
The seasonal weakness and volatility we anticipated arrived as expected in August, September and October, as it often does in pre-election years, especially after a “Hot July”
market. Then October delivered a near perfect late-month turnaround and queued up the Best Six Months to a tee.
All in all, with S&P 500 up 22.4% year-to-date at yesterday’s close, NASDAQ up 41.2%, DJIA at new all-time highs and the small cap Russell 2000 outpacing big caps since the October lows, as they are supposed to, our 2023 Forecast, while not perfect, was on track.
Comment:
When a sitting president is running for reelection S&P 500 averages a gain 12.8% in election years since 1949. This is substantially better than when there is an open field with no sitting president in office running, culminating in a loss of -1.5% on average for the year. The market hates uncertainty and with a sitting president running there is a good chance market, economic and civic conditions will likely remain unchanged whereas with an open field there are a great deal of unknowns. 2024 has that power of incumbency going for it.
Four Horsemen of the Economy
The Dow Jones Industrial Average the lead horse of our Four Horsemen of the Economy is leading indeed. While Papa Dow may not be logging the biggest gains of the major indexes this year it has hit new all-time highs. Last year DJIA held up best and this year S&P 500 and NASDAQ lead the charge driven by AI and technology innovation. We suspect that S&P and NAS are on their way to new all-time highs. S&P is only 1% away or 49.81 points. NASDAQ is 7.3% from a new ATH. Small caps and the Russell 2000 have woken up from their long inflation-induced slumber and are leading during this seasonal period as they historically have. As inflation cools and rates come down small caps should benefit.
Consumer Confidence is still suffering from the lagging effects of inflation. The rate of price increases has slowed, but prices are still rising, and many things are still much more expensive than they were and are expected to stay there. The jump in prices over the last few years has been quite significant. Wages have not kept up either. But anecdotally the malls, stores and restaurants in our area have been busy this holiday season.
Looking at our inflation chart of the 6-month exponential moving average of CPI and PPI we are reminded of the old Blood, Sweat & Tears 1968 hit “Spinning Wheel.” “What goes up must come down…” The rate of inflation has clearly come down precipitously while the economy has remained resilient. The pace of GDP growth and economic activity may decelerate some in 2024. It looks like the Fed has engineered the elusive soft landing. They’ve had help from massive government spending and increased productivity from AI, technological innovations and workplace efficiencies.
Amazingly, through the fastest and steepest rate hiking periode in a generation the labor market has remained robust, and unemployment has stayed below 4% for the past two years and down ticked last month to 3.7%. Perhaps all the folks who left the work force during Covid are trickling back into all the businesses that have been clamoring for workers since the pandemic ended.
Four Horsemen of the Economy
The Dow Jones Industrial Average the lead horse of our Four Horsemen of the Economy is leading indeed. While Papa Dow may not be logging the biggest gains of the major indexes this year it has hit new all-time highs. Last year DJIA held up best and this year S&P 500 and NASDAQ lead the charge driven by AI and technology innovation. We suspect that S&P and NAS are on their way to new all-time highs. S&P is only 1% away or 49.81 points. NASDAQ is 7.3% from a new ATH. Small caps and the Russell 2000 have woken up from their long inflation-induced slumber and are leading during this seasonal period as they historically have. As inflation cools and rates come down small caps should benefit.
Consumer Confidence is still suffering from the lagging effects of inflation. The rate of price increases has slowed, but prices are still rising, and many things are still much more expensive than they were and are expected to stay there. The jump in prices over the last few years has been quite significant. Wages have not kept up either. But anecdotally the malls, stores and restaurants in our area have been busy this holiday season.
Looking at our inflation chart of the 6-month exponential moving average of CPI and PPI we are reminded of the old Blood, Sweat & Tears 1968 hit “Spinning Wheel.” “What goes up must come down…” The rate of inflation has clearly come down precipitously while the economy has remained resilient. The pace of GDP growth and economic activity may decelerate some in 2024. It looks like the Fed has engineered the elusive soft landing. They’ve had help from massive government spending and increased productivity from AI, technological innovations and workplace efficiencies.
Amazingly, through the fastest and steepest rate hiking periode in a generation the labor market has remained robust, and unemployment has stayed below 4% for the past two years and down ticked last month to 3.7%. Perhaps all the folks who left the work force during Covid are trickling back into all the businesses that have been clamoring for workers since the pandemic ended.
Comment:
The Street has been buzzing about the Santa Claus Rally for three months now. Most still get it wrong. It’s not the yearend rally, the Q4 rally that runs from Halloween through January. Yes, November, December and January are the best three months of the year, but they are not the Santa Claus Rally. The Santa Claus Rally, while a seasonally bullish period, is really an indicator. It is our first seasonal indicator of the New Year and an integral component of our January Indicator -
The “Santa Claus Rally” is the last 5 trading days of the year plus the first 2 of New Year. This year it begins on the open on December 22 and lasts until the second trading day of 2024, January 3. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%.
Failure to have a Santa Claus Rally tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year. Down SCRs were followed by flat years in 1994, 2005 and 2015, two nasty bear markets in 2000 and 2008 and a mild bear that ended in February 2016.
The “Santa Claus Rally” is the last 5 trading days of the year plus the first 2 of New Year. This year it begins on the open on December 22 and lasts until the second trading day of 2024, January 3. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%.
Failure to have a Santa Claus Rally tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year. Down SCRs were followed by flat years in 1994, 2005 and 2015, two nasty bear markets in 2000 and 2008 and a mild bear that ended in February 2016.
Comment:
The January Barometer
It states that: “As The S&P 500 Goes in January, So Goes the Year.” There have been 12 major errors since 1950, which is an 83.6% accuracy ratio. Including 8 flat years yields a .726 batting average. The 1933 “Lame Duck” Amendment to the constitution is why the JB works. Since 1934, Congress convenes in the first week of January and includes those members newly elected the previous November. Inauguration Day was also moved up from March 4 to January 20.
Being the first month of the year, it’s when people readjust their portfolios, rethink their outlook for the coming year and try to make a fresh start. There is also an increase in cash that flows into the market in January, making market direction even more important. Then there is all the information Wall Street must digest: The State of the Union Address in most years, FOMC meetings, 4th quarter GDP data, earnings, and the plethora of other economic and market data.
We look forward to seeing Santa’s arrival and a positive Santa Claus Rally. Then we will be watching for a positive First Five Days and January Barometer, what we refer to as our January Indicator Trifecta. Until the market says otherwise, we anticipate them all to be positive. But as we always remind readers: if these seasonal indicators are negative and the market does not rally as it normally does during these bullish seasons, we will likely shift to a less bullish posture – if not outright bearish.
Since 1950, when all three January Indicators, Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days and the full-month January Barometer are up, S&P 500 is up 90.3% of the time 28 out of 31 years for an average gain of 17.5%. When one or more of the Trifecta are down the year is up 59.5% of the time, 25 of 42, for a paltry average gain of 2.9%.
If the market does not rally, as it should during bullish seasonal periods, it is a sign that other forces are stronger and that when the seasonal period ends those forces will really have their say.
On cue the market is hitting new pre-election year annual highs in December and near the last trading day of the year. To be clear we are bullish for 2024 with a sitting president running for reelection. Election years are not as strong as pre-election years, so we do not expect a repeat of the gains we have enjoyed in 2023. We also have a rather contentious political climate this cycle and the makings of a heated presidential election race and campaign, which is likely to create some weakness in the middle of the year during Q2-Q3 during the Worst Six Months of the year.
Sitting presidents have won reelection 15 times and lost 6 in the past 21 occurrences since 1900. Years incumbents won reelection were stronger early in the year. Years incumbent presidents lost suffered weak starts, but finished strong as unpopular administrations were removed
DJIA , S&P 500 and NASDAQ have advanced for seven straight weeks and still stand a solid chance of extending the streak to eight this week. DJIA’s last weekly winning streak of 7 or more consecutive weeks started in December 2018, spanned 9 weeks, and ended in February 2019 with a gain of 16.0%. DJIA’s longest weekly streak since 1950 lasted 14 weeks from August through October 1965. In total, there have been 20 weekly streaks of at least 8 straight. It would not be unprecedented for DJIA to do it once again.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ have similar historical records when comparing weekly winning streaks lasting 7 or more weeks. Longest streaks were 13 weeks for S&P 500 in 1957 and 15 weeks for NASDAQ from December 1971 to March 1972. Based upon history, S&P 500 and NASDAQ could also continue their respective weekly winning streaks this week.
Market breadth over the past three weeks has remained generally bullish with Weekly Advancers outnumbering Weekly Decliners in two of the last three weeks (6). The week ending December 8, was the exception despite all three indexes recording modest weekly gains. Overall, market breadth suggests that there is broad participation in the rally. Every rally needs leadership and broadening participation to keep it going. The current rally does appear to be garnering increased participation.
The trend of Weekly New Highs and New Lows also remains supportive to the rally. Aside from two modest dips, Weekly New Highs have been trending higher since the end of October and have reached their highest level since November 2021. Weekly New Lows have also remained subdued but have ticked slightly higher recently
It states that: “As The S&P 500 Goes in January, So Goes the Year.” There have been 12 major errors since 1950, which is an 83.6% accuracy ratio. Including 8 flat years yields a .726 batting average. The 1933 “Lame Duck” Amendment to the constitution is why the JB works. Since 1934, Congress convenes in the first week of January and includes those members newly elected the previous November. Inauguration Day was also moved up from March 4 to January 20.
Being the first month of the year, it’s when people readjust their portfolios, rethink their outlook for the coming year and try to make a fresh start. There is also an increase in cash that flows into the market in January, making market direction even more important. Then there is all the information Wall Street must digest: The State of the Union Address in most years, FOMC meetings, 4th quarter GDP data, earnings, and the plethora of other economic and market data.
We look forward to seeing Santa’s arrival and a positive Santa Claus Rally. Then we will be watching for a positive First Five Days and January Barometer, what we refer to as our January Indicator Trifecta. Until the market says otherwise, we anticipate them all to be positive. But as we always remind readers: if these seasonal indicators are negative and the market does not rally as it normally does during these bullish seasons, we will likely shift to a less bullish posture – if not outright bearish.
Since 1950, when all three January Indicators, Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days and the full-month January Barometer are up, S&P 500 is up 90.3% of the time 28 out of 31 years for an average gain of 17.5%. When one or more of the Trifecta are down the year is up 59.5% of the time, 25 of 42, for a paltry average gain of 2.9%.
If the market does not rally, as it should during bullish seasonal periods, it is a sign that other forces are stronger and that when the seasonal period ends those forces will really have their say.
On cue the market is hitting new pre-election year annual highs in December and near the last trading day of the year. To be clear we are bullish for 2024 with a sitting president running for reelection. Election years are not as strong as pre-election years, so we do not expect a repeat of the gains we have enjoyed in 2023. We also have a rather contentious political climate this cycle and the makings of a heated presidential election race and campaign, which is likely to create some weakness in the middle of the year during Q2-Q3 during the Worst Six Months of the year.
Sitting presidents have won reelection 15 times and lost 6 in the past 21 occurrences since 1900. Years incumbents won reelection were stronger early in the year. Years incumbent presidents lost suffered weak starts, but finished strong as unpopular administrations were removed
DJIA , S&P 500 and NASDAQ have advanced for seven straight weeks and still stand a solid chance of extending the streak to eight this week. DJIA’s last weekly winning streak of 7 or more consecutive weeks started in December 2018, spanned 9 weeks, and ended in February 2019 with a gain of 16.0%. DJIA’s longest weekly streak since 1950 lasted 14 weeks from August through October 1965. In total, there have been 20 weekly streaks of at least 8 straight. It would not be unprecedented for DJIA to do it once again.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ have similar historical records when comparing weekly winning streaks lasting 7 or more weeks. Longest streaks were 13 weeks for S&P 500 in 1957 and 15 weeks for NASDAQ from December 1971 to March 1972. Based upon history, S&P 500 and NASDAQ could also continue their respective weekly winning streaks this week.
Market breadth over the past three weeks has remained generally bullish with Weekly Advancers outnumbering Weekly Decliners in two of the last three weeks (6). The week ending December 8, was the exception despite all three indexes recording modest weekly gains. Overall, market breadth suggests that there is broad participation in the rally. Every rally needs leadership and broadening participation to keep it going. The current rally does appear to be garnering increased participation.
The trend of Weekly New Highs and New Lows also remains supportive to the rally. Aside from two modest dips, Weekly New Highs have been trending higher since the end of October and have reached their highest level since November 2021. Weekly New Lows have also remained subdued but have ticked slightly higher recently
Comment:
This rise in New Weekly lows appears consistent with impacts of tax-loss selling.
In response to cooling inflation metrics and growth outlooks, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has retreated further. After peaking at 5.02% in late October, it declined to 4.17% last week (8). The 10-year Treasury has also had a similar decline in yield and is back below 4%. The declines in longer-dated interest rates are aiding stocks.
In response to cooling inflation metrics and growth outlooks, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has retreated further. After peaking at 5.02% in late October, it declined to 4.17% last week (8). The 10-year Treasury has also had a similar decline in yield and is back below 4%. The declines in longer-dated interest rates are aiding stocks.
Comment:
My 2024 Forecast
Base Case: 85% Probability – Current trends remain intact. Inflation continues to trend back towards the Fed’s stated 2% target. Economic growth slows and employment metrics soften, but recession is avoided as Federal spending continues to support the economy. Power of sitting president running for re-election lifts market to new all-time highs. Average election year gains of 8-15%.
Best Case: 10% Probability – Inflation falls below 2% sooner than expected. Growth and employment soften. No recession, perfect soft landing is achieved, and the Fed lowers rates to achieve neutral monetary policy sooner than expected. Growth then accelerates while inflation remains subdued. Above average gains of 15-25%.
Worst Case: 5% Probability – Geopolitical concerns spiral out of control. Russia – Ukraine war drags on, Israel – Hamas war expands to multiple fronts, and/or China moves to take Taiwan. Inflation does not trend lower and remains elevated longer forcing the Fed to maintain a restrictive money policy stance longer. Economic growth and employment turn negative. Recession begins. Full-year performance negative with broad losses across most asset classes.
The bull market returned in 2023 and is expected to continue through 2024. And our May 2010 Super Boom Forecast when the Dow was around 10,000 for the Dow to reach 38,820 by the year 2025 looks like it’s now running ahead of schedule.
Base Case: 85% Probability – Current trends remain intact. Inflation continues to trend back towards the Fed’s stated 2% target. Economic growth slows and employment metrics soften, but recession is avoided as Federal spending continues to support the economy. Power of sitting president running for re-election lifts market to new all-time highs. Average election year gains of 8-15%.
Best Case: 10% Probability – Inflation falls below 2% sooner than expected. Growth and employment soften. No recession, perfect soft landing is achieved, and the Fed lowers rates to achieve neutral monetary policy sooner than expected. Growth then accelerates while inflation remains subdued. Above average gains of 15-25%.
Worst Case: 5% Probability – Geopolitical concerns spiral out of control. Russia – Ukraine war drags on, Israel – Hamas war expands to multiple fronts, and/or China moves to take Taiwan. Inflation does not trend lower and remains elevated longer forcing the Fed to maintain a restrictive money policy stance longer. Economic growth and employment turn negative. Recession begins. Full-year performance negative with broad losses across most asset classes.
The bull market returned in 2023 and is expected to continue through 2024. And our May 2010 Super Boom Forecast when the Dow was around 10,000 for the Dow to reach 38,820 by the year 2025 looks like it’s now running ahead of schedule.
Comment:
Happy Holidays & Happy New Year, we wish you all a healthy and prosperous 2024!
Comment:
Market at a Glance
Seasonal: Bullish. December is the third best month for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000. It is Russell 2000’s second best month. In pre-election years, performance has been even stronger with average gains ranging from 2.7% from DJIA to 4.2% by NASDAQ. Tax-loss selling can weigh on the first half of December. Free Lunch to be served before the market opens on December 18. January Effect of small-cap outperformance usually begins mid-December. Santa Claus Rally begins on December 22 and runs until January 3.
Fundamental: Mixed. Q3 GDP was revised higher to 5.2%, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now estimating Q4 growth of just 1.8%. Inflation metrics continue to indicate cooling inflation, but year-over-year prices are still rising, and inflation remains above the Fed’s target. Employment data is still reasonably firm with some signs of softness. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated despite a temporary cease fire between Israel and Hamas. Perhaps these are the early signs of a soft economic landing.
Technical: Breaking out Nasdaq DJIA sp500 and Russel breaouts and ALLTIME HIGHS, Successfull Santa Ralley, Donchian Fib trends all bullish in positive territory has closed at a new recovery high and is less than 900 points from its all-time closing high. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are nearing their respective recovery closing highs from July. Those old highs are presenting some resistance that could be eclipsed before yearend. All three indexes at new recovery highs would be further confirmation the bull market remains intact and is likely to continue.
Monetary: 5.25 – 5.50%. The Fed is most likely done with rate hikes. The desired soft economic landing appears to be unfolding. To maintain credibility, it will not be surprising to see the Fed remain hawkish on inflation as it reminds all that it is data-driven and data-dependent. As long as interest rates are not rising or expected to rise, the market will have one less concern to contend with.
Sentiment: Holiday Cheer.Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 55.7%. Correction advisors are at 22.9% while Bearish advisors numbered 21.4% as of their November 29 release. Broad market gains have lifted bullish sentiment, but not yet to lofty levels. Because it is the holiday season and the “Best Months,” elevated bullish sentiment is less concerning.
Right on cue the market correction ended just before the end of October. As we went to press with last month’s outlook on Thursday, October 26, NASDAQ halted its 3-month slide with a loss of -12.3%. DJIA and S&P 500 finished their corresponding seasonal drops the very next day with losses of -9.0% and -10.7% respectively. Then just as we expected this November-to-remember rallied NASDAQ up 13.4% from the October low with S&P and DJIA both up 10.9% at today’s close.
So, what’s with all the bearish sentiment we keep hearing from Wall Street analysts and CEOs and many market pundits?
Looking bac to Nov 30th Just this morning on one of the national financial news shows the anchor and reporter were looking for reasons Q3 GDP was so robust at 5.2%. Their conclusion was that the work-from-home crowd is consuming instead of commuting and of course when they are forced to go back to the office next year all the spending will end.
VIX down Inflation is cooling and the Fed, despite any jawboning you may hear, is done with increases for all intents and purposes and is only posturing to remind everyone that they are data dependent too. Today the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator reading PCE hit an 18-month low of 3.0% annual rate. Inflation’s cooling trend is rather apparent in our favorite chart of CPI, PPI and PCE.
With November logging its fourth best gain on the S&P since 1950 at a whopping 8.9% for the month there’s some concern that the strong November will take from December’s usual gains. However, when we ran the numbers, the impact was rather negligible. The other top three Novembers 1962, 1980 and 2020 were followed by up December 2 out of 3 times with December 1980 being down -3.4%.
While two out of three ain’t bad, as Meat Loaf would say, December is up 74% of the time in all 73 prior years since 1950. The top 10 and top 20 Novembers were followed by up December 70% of the time, though average gains are a little above average for the top ten at 1.8%. So, all in all, big November gains take very little if anything away from historically strong Decembers. In short, gains beget gains.
We still don’t understand why so many on The Street are so bearish. It’s the holiday season. It is seasonally the most bullish time of the year. And seasonality remains on track and firing on all pistons as does the 4-Year Cycle. Market internals and technicals continue to be supportive. Those that may remember the 1990s will recall that the market can flourish, driven by innovation and technology – can you say AI? – even when interest rates are at current levels or even higher. The bond market continues to signal a declining trend in rates with the 10-year and 30-year bond yields retreating off the recent highs.
Seasonal: Bullish. December is the third best month for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000. It is Russell 2000’s second best month. In pre-election years, performance has been even stronger with average gains ranging from 2.7% from DJIA to 4.2% by NASDAQ. Tax-loss selling can weigh on the first half of December. Free Lunch to be served before the market opens on December 18. January Effect of small-cap outperformance usually begins mid-December. Santa Claus Rally begins on December 22 and runs until January 3.
Fundamental: Mixed. Q3 GDP was revised higher to 5.2%, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now estimating Q4 growth of just 1.8%. Inflation metrics continue to indicate cooling inflation, but year-over-year prices are still rising, and inflation remains above the Fed’s target. Employment data is still reasonably firm with some signs of softness. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated despite a temporary cease fire between Israel and Hamas. Perhaps these are the early signs of a soft economic landing.
Technical: Breaking out Nasdaq DJIA sp500 and Russel breaouts and ALLTIME HIGHS, Successfull Santa Ralley, Donchian Fib trends all bullish in positive territory has closed at a new recovery high and is less than 900 points from its all-time closing high. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are nearing their respective recovery closing highs from July. Those old highs are presenting some resistance that could be eclipsed before yearend. All three indexes at new recovery highs would be further confirmation the bull market remains intact and is likely to continue.
Monetary: 5.25 – 5.50%. The Fed is most likely done with rate hikes. The desired soft economic landing appears to be unfolding. To maintain credibility, it will not be surprising to see the Fed remain hawkish on inflation as it reminds all that it is data-driven and data-dependent. As long as interest rates are not rising or expected to rise, the market will have one less concern to contend with.
Sentiment: Holiday Cheer.Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 55.7%. Correction advisors are at 22.9% while Bearish advisors numbered 21.4% as of their November 29 release. Broad market gains have lifted bullish sentiment, but not yet to lofty levels. Because it is the holiday season and the “Best Months,” elevated bullish sentiment is less concerning.
Right on cue the market correction ended just before the end of October. As we went to press with last month’s outlook on Thursday, October 26, NASDAQ halted its 3-month slide with a loss of -12.3%. DJIA and S&P 500 finished their corresponding seasonal drops the very next day with losses of -9.0% and -10.7% respectively. Then just as we expected this November-to-remember rallied NASDAQ up 13.4% from the October low with S&P and DJIA both up 10.9% at today’s close.
So, what’s with all the bearish sentiment we keep hearing from Wall Street analysts and CEOs and many market pundits?
Looking bac to Nov 30th Just this morning on one of the national financial news shows the anchor and reporter were looking for reasons Q3 GDP was so robust at 5.2%. Their conclusion was that the work-from-home crowd is consuming instead of commuting and of course when they are forced to go back to the office next year all the spending will end.
VIX down Inflation is cooling and the Fed, despite any jawboning you may hear, is done with increases for all intents and purposes and is only posturing to remind everyone that they are data dependent too. Today the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator reading PCE hit an 18-month low of 3.0% annual rate. Inflation’s cooling trend is rather apparent in our favorite chart of CPI, PPI and PCE.
With November logging its fourth best gain on the S&P since 1950 at a whopping 8.9% for the month there’s some concern that the strong November will take from December’s usual gains. However, when we ran the numbers, the impact was rather negligible. The other top three Novembers 1962, 1980 and 2020 were followed by up December 2 out of 3 times with December 1980 being down -3.4%.
While two out of three ain’t bad, as Meat Loaf would say, December is up 74% of the time in all 73 prior years since 1950. The top 10 and top 20 Novembers were followed by up December 70% of the time, though average gains are a little above average for the top ten at 1.8%. So, all in all, big November gains take very little if anything away from historically strong Decembers. In short, gains beget gains.
We still don’t understand why so many on The Street are so bearish. It’s the holiday season. It is seasonally the most bullish time of the year. And seasonality remains on track and firing on all pistons as does the 4-Year Cycle. Market internals and technicals continue to be supportive. Those that may remember the 1990s will recall that the market can flourish, driven by innovation and technology – can you say AI? – even when interest rates are at current levels or even higher. The bond market continues to signal a declining trend in rates with the 10-year and 30-year bond yields retreating off the recent highs.
Comment:
Seasonality Rules
We are just at the beginning of the Best Six Months of the year and the Best Three consecutive months of the year. It’s also a pre-election year, the best year of the 4-year cycle, that often sees a new high in December and frequently on the last trading day of the year. December has been a solid month in all years as well as pre-election years, ranking second or third no matter how you slice it.
After some likely first half December tax-loss selling pressure, we look forward to seeing Santa’s arrival and a positive Santa Claus Rally. Then we will be watching for a positive First Five Days and January Barometer, what refer to as our January Indicator Trifecta. Until the market says otherwise, we anticipate them all to be positive. But as we always remind readers: if these seasonal indicators are negative and the market does not rally as it normally does during these bullish seasons, we will likely shift to a less bullish posture – if not outright bearish.
We will also be on the lookout for small-cap strength to begin around mid-December. What used to be known as the “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance can last from mid-December through March. Small caps, notably the Russell 2000 Index has been lagging and remains under water since its November 2021 high. However, since the October low the R2K looks like it’s bottoming and setting up for a more typical seasonal mid-December rally.
For 2024, we are also bullish. Politics aside, a sitting president running for re-election is the most bullish of scenarios.
We are just at the beginning of the Best Six Months of the year and the Best Three consecutive months of the year. It’s also a pre-election year, the best year of the 4-year cycle, that often sees a new high in December and frequently on the last trading day of the year. December has been a solid month in all years as well as pre-election years, ranking second or third no matter how you slice it.
After some likely first half December tax-loss selling pressure, we look forward to seeing Santa’s arrival and a positive Santa Claus Rally. Then we will be watching for a positive First Five Days and January Barometer, what refer to as our January Indicator Trifecta. Until the market says otherwise, we anticipate them all to be positive. But as we always remind readers: if these seasonal indicators are negative and the market does not rally as it normally does during these bullish seasons, we will likely shift to a less bullish posture – if not outright bearish.
We will also be on the lookout for small-cap strength to begin around mid-December. What used to be known as the “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance can last from mid-December through March. Small caps, notably the Russell 2000 Index has been lagging and remains under water since its November 2021 high. However, since the October low the R2K looks like it’s bottoming and setting up for a more typical seasonal mid-December rally.
For 2024, we are also bullish. Politics aside, a sitting president running for re-election is the most bullish of scenarios.
Comment:
US Pending Home Sales Index Holds at Lowest Level on Record
A gauge of pending US existing-home purchases held at a record low in November, indicating a weak resale market beset by a lack of inventory and high prices.
US jobless claims rose for second straight week after ticking up before Christmas
US: 7Y high yield 3.859%, WI 3.837%, 2.2bps tail; biggest tail since Nov 2022
GOOD FOR NASDAQ AND CO,bad for inflation and U Dollar
A gauge of pending US existing-home purchases held at a record low in November, indicating a weak resale market beset by a lack of inventory and high prices.
US jobless claims rose for second straight week after ticking up before Christmas
US: 7Y high yield 3.859%, WI 3.837%, 2.2bps tail; biggest tail since Nov 2022
GOOD FOR NASDAQ AND CO,bad for inflation and U Dollar
Comment:
bought 16763 again Trend bullish
Comment:
History shows strong 2023 could keep US stocks on path for 2024 gains
The U.S. stock market’s hefty gains in 2023 could provide a lift for equities next year, if history is any guide.
The S&P 500 .SPXended the year on Friday with an annual gain of just over 24%. The benchmark index also stood near its first record closing high in about two years
Market strategists who track historical trends say that such a strong annual performance for stocks has often carried over into the following year, a phenomenon they attribute to factors including momentum and solid fundamentals.
Data from LPL Research going back to 1950 showed that years following a gain of 20% or more have seen the S&P 500 rise an average of 10%. That compares to an average 9.3% annual return. Such years are also more frequently positive, with the market ending the year up 80% of the time, versus 73% overall.
Further tests of the market's strength will arrive quickly. U.S. companies start to report fourth-quarter results in the next couple of weeks with investors anticipating a much stronger year for profit growth in 2024 after a tepid 3.1% increase in 2023 earnings, according to the latest LSEG estimates.
Investors are also awaiting the conclusion of the Fed’s first monetary policy meeting of the year in late January for insight into whether policymakers hew to the dovish pivot they signaled in late December, penciling in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2024.
Indeed, signs the economy is starting to wobble following the 525 basis points in Fed rate hikes since 2022 could hinder momentum for stocks. By the same token, accelerating inflation in 2024 could delay expected rate cuts, putting the market’s soft-landing hopes on hold.
The U.S. stock market’s hefty gains in 2023 could provide a lift for equities next year, if history is any guide.
The S&P 500 .SPXended the year on Friday with an annual gain of just over 24%. The benchmark index also stood near its first record closing high in about two years
Market strategists who track historical trends say that such a strong annual performance for stocks has often carried over into the following year, a phenomenon they attribute to factors including momentum and solid fundamentals.
Data from LPL Research going back to 1950 showed that years following a gain of 20% or more have seen the S&P 500 rise an average of 10%. That compares to an average 9.3% annual return. Such years are also more frequently positive, with the market ending the year up 80% of the time, versus 73% overall.
Further tests of the market's strength will arrive quickly. U.S. companies start to report fourth-quarter results in the next couple of weeks with investors anticipating a much stronger year for profit growth in 2024 after a tepid 3.1% increase in 2023 earnings, according to the latest LSEG estimates.
Investors are also awaiting the conclusion of the Fed’s first monetary policy meeting of the year in late January for insight into whether policymakers hew to the dovish pivot they signaled in late December, penciling in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2024.
Indeed, signs the economy is starting to wobble following the 525 basis points in Fed rate hikes since 2022 could hinder momentum for stocks. By the same token, accelerating inflation in 2024 could delay expected rate cuts, putting the market’s soft-landing hopes on hold.
Comment:
Basically, all of the indicators that I look at point to a positive year
Comment:
Many retail traders say: we are over bought....this is double top this is the double bottom...etc....ok.if you believe in it:Sell! If you dont believe in it:Buy or stay out!
But....
But...
But...
If you ask me for my opinion:Here is my answer. Scroll up!Read theses updates from beginning and you guess someway what I think about it.. If you want a short summary, then read the lines below:
My thoughts are:
There only 3 INDICATOR that are not manipulated and are 100% RIGHT!!!
Indicator No.1: PRICE!
Indicator No.2:PRICE!!
Indicator No.3:PRICE!!!
The Price is always RIGHT! There is no bull ide.There is no bear side. There is ONLY and ONLY the Right side of the market.
The PRICE is the the only un.manipulated INDICATOR. It has all information of the past,of NOW, and of Future!
Some say :We are now at double top.They aid that last week, 1 month ago, in the Summer, at the beginning of 2023!The price of NASDAQ is today 16812.We made since 2 Weeks every 2days in avergae new ALL TIME HIGHS. This is very unusual. NASDAQ broke the all time high of 2021/2022 13 Times in row!!! The major resistance was 16750(Alltime High 2022). Thi i now The major support. Nasdaq broke a hard resistance that held more than 20 Months. The Bulls are defending this support more than their lives. Overbought? Well overbought in relation to what? Overbought in lower time frameS? Overbought of which indicators? What settings? What indicator TF? And what do contarian Indicators say? How about the lagging Indicators? In which time horizon relationship?What setting? All indicator move ,after the market made its move. So Indicators, no matter which are alway late.Too late. And Indicator are based on subjective opinions. Trade One Indicator says short, while the other one ays long!Who is right!? Do thi traders move the markets? If yes, why do they have not only winner, but also loses?! If they move the markets ,why do they put profit targets? Or Stop loss orders? The Price is always right. There is no Double top, no double bottom... In 2020 WTI was for one day below zero: at the price of -2$(Yes you read it the right way: Minus 2 Dollars!!!! Can you remember it? Bitcoin can go and be traded below zero!!!Did you now that,how possible it is? THE PRICE IS ALWAYS RIGHT!!!! And the only way to gain pofit of it is stopping predicting the price.Instead Following the price! We are Trend Follower. I am trend Follower. We take the trade. We put our stop, and the market does the rest. No prediction. We dont limit our profits. We limit only our risk, We takes losers fast out. We dont let a small problem(loser) getting a big trouble .We let our profits run. And believe me They are very BIG! Because we follow only the price. Because the price is always right. We dont need crystal balls, and indicators that are well known to the smart money. We have the bet unmanipulated Indicator:That Indicator is called:PRICE! And I follow only and only the price. If the price says enough, no all time highs anymore now I(the Price) am going down,No problem. I follow the price, and ell the market short.Because I follow the pprice If the price says:,,Not high enough,I(the Price) wanna go higher!,No Problem! I follow long.I am a price follower.If Price says:Flat!No trade zone for you now!No Problem! I stay out!. But what price doesnt know is:If the price wanna make loses, I have my stops! But whatever happens,I follow only the price.The price is the best indicator.The only indicator.It has no memories,it has no emotions. It even does not debate. That is the best about the PRICE. aND pRICE PUNIH; IF YOU DONT FOLLOW IT! And believe me Price knows no mercy. There is no bull side,no bearsides, but only the right side of the market. And the price is much more smarter than us traders. So stop predicting the next price
But....
But...
But...
If you ask me for my opinion:Here is my answer. Scroll up!Read theses updates from beginning and you guess someway what I think about it.. If you want a short summary, then read the lines below:
My thoughts are:
There only 3 INDICATOR that are not manipulated and are 100% RIGHT!!!
Indicator No.1: PRICE!
Indicator No.2:PRICE!!
Indicator No.3:PRICE!!!
The Price is always RIGHT! There is no bull ide.There is no bear side. There is ONLY and ONLY the Right side of the market.
The PRICE is the the only un.manipulated INDICATOR. It has all information of the past,of NOW, and of Future!
Some say :We are now at double top.They aid that last week, 1 month ago, in the Summer, at the beginning of 2023!The price of NASDAQ is today 16812.We made since 2 Weeks every 2days in avergae new ALL TIME HIGHS. This is very unusual. NASDAQ broke the all time high of 2021/2022 13 Times in row!!! The major resistance was 16750(Alltime High 2022). Thi i now The major support. Nasdaq broke a hard resistance that held more than 20 Months. The Bulls are defending this support more than their lives. Overbought? Well overbought in relation to what? Overbought in lower time frameS? Overbought of which indicators? What settings? What indicator TF? And what do contarian Indicators say? How about the lagging Indicators? In which time horizon relationship?What setting? All indicator move ,after the market made its move. So Indicators, no matter which are alway late.Too late. And Indicator are based on subjective opinions. Trade One Indicator says short, while the other one ays long!Who is right!? Do thi traders move the markets? If yes, why do they have not only winner, but also loses?! If they move the markets ,why do they put profit targets? Or Stop loss orders? The Price is always right. There is no Double top, no double bottom... In 2020 WTI was for one day below zero: at the price of -2$(Yes you read it the right way: Minus 2 Dollars!!!! Can you remember it? Bitcoin can go and be traded below zero!!!Did you now that,how possible it is? THE PRICE IS ALWAYS RIGHT!!!! And the only way to gain pofit of it is stopping predicting the price.Instead Following the price! We are Trend Follower. I am trend Follower. We take the trade. We put our stop, and the market does the rest. No prediction. We dont limit our profits. We limit only our risk, We takes losers fast out. We dont let a small problem(loser) getting a big trouble .We let our profits run. And believe me They are very BIG! Because we follow only the price. Because the price is always right. We dont need crystal balls, and indicators that are well known to the smart money. We have the bet unmanipulated Indicator:That Indicator is called:PRICE! And I follow only and only the price. If the price says enough, no all time highs anymore now I(the Price) am going down,No problem. I follow the price, and ell the market short.Because I follow the pprice If the price says:,,Not high enough,I(the Price) wanna go higher!,No Problem! I follow long.I am a price follower.If Price says:Flat!No trade zone for you now!No Problem! I stay out!. But what price doesnt know is:If the price wanna make loses, I have my stops! But whatever happens,I follow only the price.The price is the best indicator.The only indicator.It has no memories,it has no emotions. It even does not debate. That is the best about the PRICE. aND pRICE PUNIH; IF YOU DONT FOLLOW IT! And believe me Price knows no mercy. There is no bull side,no bearsides, but only the right side of the market. And the price is much more smarter than us traders. So stop predicting the next price
Comment:
Trend UP SELL more USD
Dollar tentative as investors await Fed Dollar tentative as investors await Fed minutes
Gold firms on Fed rate-cut hopes; US data in focus
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the Federal Reserve, while investors look forward to a slew of economic data this week for more clarity on the U.S. rate outlook.
Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of rate cuts from the Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Also on the radar, data on U.S. job openings and December non-farm payrolls will also been keenly watched for more clarity on Fed rate path.
Dollar tentative as investors await Fed Dollar tentative as investors await Fed minutes
Gold firms on Fed rate-cut hopes; US data in focus
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the Federal Reserve, while investors look forward to a slew of economic data this week for more clarity on the U.S. rate outlook.
Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of rate cuts from the Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Also on the radar, data on U.S. job openings and December non-farm payrolls will also been keenly watched for more clarity on Fed rate path.
Comment:
Wall Street: validates 9 best weeks in 20 years
Mission accomplished: despite a slight pause on December 29, Wall Street completed its 9th consecutive week of gains, and the US indices ended the year 0.2% or 0.4% shy of their annual or all-time records (Nasdaq-100 and Dow Jones).
The S&P500 (-0.28%) gained +0.4% over the week, signing its longest bull run in 20 years... but above all, it is a unique feat in history, never having lost more than 0.8% in 9 weeks, with the exception of the -1.5% of December 20, immediately corrected by 4 annual records over the following 5 sessions.
The Nasdaq (-0.43% at 16.826 but +54% in 2023) and the Dow Jones (-0.05%) validated their longest bull run since 2019, but this is the 1st time in the 21st that no consolidation lasting more than 48H has materialized, with stratospheric up/down ratios (like the latest sequence of 14 gains in 15 sessions, except for that famous December 20).
The 'Fantastic 7' ended rather lower on Friday (Tesla -1.9%), but the 10 biggest 'technos' (including the '7') will collectively gain +110% in 2023 (with an average P/E of over 50).
Nividia +240%, Meta +194%, AMD +128%, Tesla +101%, Broadcom +100%, Intel +90%, Amazon +80%, Netflix +63%, Alphabet +58%, Microsoft +57%, Apple +48%.
The 'techno' stocks as a whole are gaining +55% (average P/E close to 40) and this sector is beaten only by cruise lines (+57%).
In a note published last night, Dan Ives, the star analyst at Wedbush Securities, reiterated his expectation of a further rise of around 25% in the major US technology stocks next year (the "Fantastic 7" + a few semiconductors), which would be an undeniable driving force for global equity markets.
It's worth noting that these 'Fantastic 7' have gained +103% this year (on an equally-weighted basis) and accounted for 90% of the S&P500's performance, a capital concentration unseen in a century, along with the railways and John.D Rockefeller's Standard Oil (before 1911).
No champagne year-end for bonds, but T-Bonds are proving far more resilient than Bunds or OATs, with only +1pt on the US 10-year at 3.865%, a level comparable to mid-July.
The '30 yr' fell by 2pts to 4.01%, but paradoxically the yields on the '1 yr' and '2 yr' improved by -3 and -2pts to 4.782% and 4.261% respectively... the '3 month' by -5pts to 5.345%, as economists are betting that the US electoral calendar will require monetary easing to start very early in the year, in order to adopt a more neutral stance in October November 2024.
Mission accomplished: despite a slight pause on December 29, Wall Street completed its 9th consecutive week of gains, and the US indices ended the year 0.2% or 0.4% shy of their annual or all-time records (Nasdaq-100 and Dow Jones).
The S&P500 (-0.28%) gained +0.4% over the week, signing its longest bull run in 20 years... but above all, it is a unique feat in history, never having lost more than 0.8% in 9 weeks, with the exception of the -1.5% of December 20, immediately corrected by 4 annual records over the following 5 sessions.
The Nasdaq (-0.43% at 16.826 but +54% in 2023) and the Dow Jones (-0.05%) validated their longest bull run since 2019, but this is the 1st time in the 21st that no consolidation lasting more than 48H has materialized, with stratospheric up/down ratios (like the latest sequence of 14 gains in 15 sessions, except for that famous December 20).
The 'Fantastic 7' ended rather lower on Friday (Tesla -1.9%), but the 10 biggest 'technos' (including the '7') will collectively gain +110% in 2023 (with an average P/E of over 50).
Nividia +240%, Meta +194%, AMD +128%, Tesla +101%, Broadcom +100%, Intel +90%, Amazon +80%, Netflix +63%, Alphabet +58%, Microsoft +57%, Apple +48%.
The 'techno' stocks as a whole are gaining +55% (average P/E close to 40) and this sector is beaten only by cruise lines (+57%).
In a note published last night, Dan Ives, the star analyst at Wedbush Securities, reiterated his expectation of a further rise of around 25% in the major US technology stocks next year (the "Fantastic 7" + a few semiconductors), which would be an undeniable driving force for global equity markets.
It's worth noting that these 'Fantastic 7' have gained +103% this year (on an equally-weighted basis) and accounted for 90% of the S&P500's performance, a capital concentration unseen in a century, along with the railways and John.D Rockefeller's Standard Oil (before 1911).
No champagne year-end for bonds, but T-Bonds are proving far more resilient than Bunds or OATs, with only +1pt on the US 10-year at 3.865%, a level comparable to mid-July.
The '30 yr' fell by 2pts to 4.01%, but paradoxically the yields on the '1 yr' and '2 yr' improved by -3 and -2pts to 4.782% and 4.261% respectively... the '3 month' by -5pts to 5.345%, as economists are betting that the US electoral calendar will require monetary easing to start very early in the year, in order to adopt a more neutral stance in October November 2024.
Comment:
Futures inch up, firm rate cut bets drive strong gains
Comment:
Trend bullish
Hedged 16893
Hedged 16893
Comment:
short hedge target 16532
Comment:
PROFIT TAKING Wallstreet
PMi 47k ,bad for dollar NQ waiting for ISM and 5th Januyry2024
Very important
We are still bullish, but hedged our positions
169532 short hedge target 1 hit, but we wait for our trading system giving olving signal.
Updates will come
PMi 47k ,bad for dollar NQ waiting for ISM and 5th Januyry2024
Very important
We are still bullish, but hedged our positions
169532 short hedge target 1 hit, but we wait for our trading system giving olving signal.
Updates will come
Comment:
US100
trend bullish
profit takingg
PMI below expectations
dollar up Warconflict tensions between US and IRAN8+houthiesrebels Red sea increasing):
MARKET WAITING FOR fomc MINUTES
5th Januayr most important day of this year!!!!!
November US Construction Spending Up 0.4%
Construction spending during November 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,050.1 billion, 0.4% above the revised October estimate of $2,042.5 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The November figure is 11.3% above the November 2022 estimate of $1,842.2 billion. During the first eleven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,817.1 billion, 6.2% above the $1,711.1 billion for the same period in 2022. Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,595.0 billion, 0.7% above the revised October estimate of $1,584.4 billion.
US manufacturing performance declines at sharper pace as demand conditions weaken
The US manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction during December, according to the latest PMI® survey data from S&P Global, as output returned to decline and the downturn in new orders gathered pace. Lower total new sales reflected weakness in both domestic and external demand conditions, with firms adjusting down their input buying and hiring activity accordingly. Signs of greater spare capacity were seen through a faster fall in backlogs and destocking, with firms also seeking to better manage cashflow.
The US dollar begins the new year on a firm note. It is recovering against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today after depreciating in the holiday-thin markets over the past couple of weeks. Japanese markets are on holiday until Thursday. The yen and Swiss franc are the poorest performers among the G10 currencies. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, Hungarian forint, and South African rand are bucking the trend to post minor gains against the greenback. The Chinese yuan is off by about 0.5% for its biggest loss in at least six months.
US100
trend bullish
profit takingg
PMI below expectations
dollar up Warconflict tensions between US and IRAN8+houthiesrebels Red sea increasing):
MARKET WAITING FOR fomc MINUTES
5th Januayr most important day of this year!!!!!
November US Construction Spending Up 0.4%
Construction spending during November 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,050.1 billion, 0.4% above the revised October estimate of $2,042.5 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The November figure is 11.3% above the November 2022 estimate of $1,842.2 billion. During the first eleven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,817.1 billion, 6.2% above the $1,711.1 billion for the same period in 2022. Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,595.0 billion, 0.7% above the revised October estimate of $1,584.4 billion.
US manufacturing performance declines at sharper pace as demand conditions weaken
The US manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction during December, according to the latest PMI® survey data from S&P Global, as output returned to decline and the downturn in new orders gathered pace. Lower total new sales reflected weakness in both domestic and external demand conditions, with firms adjusting down their input buying and hiring activity accordingly. Signs of greater spare capacity were seen through a faster fall in backlogs and destocking, with firms also seeking to better manage cashflow.
The US dollar begins the new year on a firm note. It is recovering against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today after depreciating in the holiday-thin markets over the past couple of weeks. Japanese markets are on holiday until Thursday. The yen and Swiss franc are the poorest performers among the G10 currencies. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, Hungarian forint, and South African rand are bucking the trend to post minor gains against the greenback. The Chinese yuan is off by about 0.5% for its biggest loss in at least six months.
Comment:
NASDAQ (NEW UPDATES) Bonds DOWN RATE CUT PROBABILITY RISING
Comment:
Trend Bullish
We hedged yesterday ASIA session our positions at above 16850 short. at this moment we have longs and shorts positons in nasdaq an some ndices in profit,.Based on our trading strategy signals we will decie if we excecute the shorts, or take out our longs(If the trend becomes bearish).
Current sentient for the next days is bearish to unknown, as the market is very nervouse. But we tick to our long time proven strategy.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.
Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.
If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.
On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.
On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.
However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.
With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.
The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.
The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.
Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.
The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.
Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.
Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.
If you are bullish, trail your stops, wait your time to recover the market.As the volatility is increasing think also baout less position sizing or position reducing to minimize riskks.
Also read the updates below USDJPY chart, that will help you to understand this weeks events better
We hedged yesterday ASIA session our positions at above 16850 short. at this moment we have longs and shorts positons in nasdaq an some ndices in profit,.Based on our trading strategy signals we will decie if we excecute the shorts, or take out our longs(If the trend becomes bearish).
Current sentient for the next days is bearish to unknown, as the market is very nervouse. But we tick to our long time proven strategy.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.
Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.
If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.
On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.
On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.
However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.
With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.
The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.
The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.
Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.
The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.
Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.
Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.
If you are bullish, trail your stops, wait your time to recover the market.As the volatility is increasing think also baout less position sizing or position reducing to minimize riskks.
Also read the updates below USDJPY chart, that will help you to understand this weeks events better
Comment:
Trend Bullish
We hedged yesterday ASIA session our positions at above 16850 short. at this moment we have longs and shorts positons in nasdaq an some ndices in profit,.Based on our trading strategy signals we will decie if we excecute the shorts, or take out our longs(If the trend becomes bearish).
Current sentient for the next days is bearish to unknown, as the market is very nervouse. But we tick to our long time proven strategy.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.
Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.
If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.
On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.
On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.
However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.
With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.
The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.
The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.
Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.
The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.
Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.
Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.
If you are bullish, trail your stops, wait your time to recover the market.As the volatility is increasing think also baout less position sizing or position reducing to minimize riskks.
Also read the updates below USDJPY chart, that will help you to understand this weeks events better
We hedged yesterday ASIA session our positions at above 16850 short. at this moment we have longs and shorts positons in nasdaq an some ndices in profit,.Based on our trading strategy signals we will decie if we excecute the shorts, or take out our longs(If the trend becomes bearish).
Current sentient for the next days is bearish to unknown, as the market is very nervouse. But we tick to our long time proven strategy.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.
Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.
If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.
On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.
On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.
However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.
With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.
The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.
The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.
Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.
The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.
Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.
Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.
If you are bullish, trail your stops, wait your time to recover the market.As the volatility is increasing think also baout less position sizing or position reducing to minimize riskks.
Also read the updates below USDJPY chart, that will help you to understand this weeks events better
Comment:
Bad Data for Dollar PMI OUR
The market waiting for Friday non farm
correcting continuation
The market waiting for Friday non farm
correcting continuation
Comment:
Trend bullish
Longs got hedged short at 16853. We will solve short hedges, and Take profit, and add some more longs, but not yet.We wait for new buy signal.
US data confirms the cooling narrative
The ISM manufacturing data suggests the sector continues to contract while job opening numbers point to a slower pace of hiring. Friday's jobs report will be key this week though, with the composition of jobs growth almost as important as the payrolls number itself in determining the prospect for rate cuts in 2024
Data provides an important test for recent market moves
Financial markets responded aggressively to the Federal Reserve’s dovish signals at the December FOMC meeting when their individual dot plots pointed to three rate cuts in 2024. This gave market participants the confidence to ramp up the pricing of potentially even more aggressive easing coming through, helped additionally by a very soft core PCE deflator print. Markets are now anticipating six 25bp moves, starting as soon as March.
We have been predicting 150bp of interest rate cuts in 2024 for some time, but we remain a little nervous that the market has moved so far so quickly even though the jobs market remains tight and the activity story right now remains pretty solid. March still looks a little early to us for the first rate cut – we favour May – and this week’s data flow will be important in gauging the potential timing of a first rate cut.
Manufacturing continues to languish
Today’s reports aren't especially conclusive though. The US ISM manufacturing index improved more than expected in December to stand at 47.4 versus the 47.1 consensus forecast and up from 46.7 level recorded in November. Nonetheless, this remains a weak report. It is the 14th consecutive sub-50 print – 50 is the breakeven level - indicating the sector has been contracting since the fourth quarter of last year. The details show production rose to 50.3 from 48.5, so there is a very modest increase in output given it is above 50, but new orders softened to 47.1 from 48.3 and the backlog of orders series also remained weak, suggesting production is likely to drop back below 50 again next month. As the chart below shows, it suggests ongoing stagnation is the most likely path ahead for the sector.
Employment rose to 48.1 from 45.8, but this is still below that 50 breakeven level so merely indicates that the pace of job shedding slowed in December. The good news is that prices paid fell back quite sharply to 45.2 from 49.9, suggesting very little inflation threat from the sector, giving the Fed the room to respond flexibly to incoming activity data
The jobs market remains key and further softening looks likely
Separately, the November JOLTS report data that showed the number of job openings fell to 8.79m in November from 8.852m in October. There were quite a lot of revisions, but the main takeaway is that the level is weaker than the consensus expectation of 8.821m and the trend shows businesses are becoming more cautious on hiring in general with the number of job openings at their lowest since early 2021. Admittedly, there are still significant numbers of vacancies, but hiring rates slowed to the lowest level since July 2020 and the quit rate – a measure of people willing to leave their job and used as a gauge to see how confident workers are they can find better-paid work elsewhere – dropped to its weakest reading since 3Q 2020. Consequently, it appears workers are noticing businesses are becoming more reluctant to hire staff.
A measure of US factory activity remained stuck in contraction territory for a 14th month at the end of 2023, restrained by weaker orders. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge edged up 0.7 point to 47.4 last month, helped by a pickup in production, according to data released Wednesday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the figure was near economists’ expectations.
Longs got hedged short at 16853. We will solve short hedges, and Take profit, and add some more longs, but not yet.We wait for new buy signal.
US data confirms the cooling narrative
The ISM manufacturing data suggests the sector continues to contract while job opening numbers point to a slower pace of hiring. Friday's jobs report will be key this week though, with the composition of jobs growth almost as important as the payrolls number itself in determining the prospect for rate cuts in 2024
Data provides an important test for recent market moves
Financial markets responded aggressively to the Federal Reserve’s dovish signals at the December FOMC meeting when their individual dot plots pointed to three rate cuts in 2024. This gave market participants the confidence to ramp up the pricing of potentially even more aggressive easing coming through, helped additionally by a very soft core PCE deflator print. Markets are now anticipating six 25bp moves, starting as soon as March.
We have been predicting 150bp of interest rate cuts in 2024 for some time, but we remain a little nervous that the market has moved so far so quickly even though the jobs market remains tight and the activity story right now remains pretty solid. March still looks a little early to us for the first rate cut – we favour May – and this week’s data flow will be important in gauging the potential timing of a first rate cut.
Manufacturing continues to languish
Today’s reports aren't especially conclusive though. The US ISM manufacturing index improved more than expected in December to stand at 47.4 versus the 47.1 consensus forecast and up from 46.7 level recorded in November. Nonetheless, this remains a weak report. It is the 14th consecutive sub-50 print – 50 is the breakeven level - indicating the sector has been contracting since the fourth quarter of last year. The details show production rose to 50.3 from 48.5, so there is a very modest increase in output given it is above 50, but new orders softened to 47.1 from 48.3 and the backlog of orders series also remained weak, suggesting production is likely to drop back below 50 again next month. As the chart below shows, it suggests ongoing stagnation is the most likely path ahead for the sector.
Employment rose to 48.1 from 45.8, but this is still below that 50 breakeven level so merely indicates that the pace of job shedding slowed in December. The good news is that prices paid fell back quite sharply to 45.2 from 49.9, suggesting very little inflation threat from the sector, giving the Fed the room to respond flexibly to incoming activity data
The jobs market remains key and further softening looks likely
Separately, the November JOLTS report data that showed the number of job openings fell to 8.79m in November from 8.852m in October. There were quite a lot of revisions, but the main takeaway is that the level is weaker than the consensus expectation of 8.821m and the trend shows businesses are becoming more cautious on hiring in general with the number of job openings at their lowest since early 2021. Admittedly, there are still significant numbers of vacancies, but hiring rates slowed to the lowest level since July 2020 and the quit rate – a measure of people willing to leave their job and used as a gauge to see how confident workers are they can find better-paid work elsewhere – dropped to its weakest reading since 3Q 2020. Consequently, it appears workers are noticing businesses are becoming more reluctant to hire staff.
A measure of US factory activity remained stuck in contraction territory for a 14th month at the end of 2023, restrained by weaker orders. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge edged up 0.7 point to 47.4 last month, helped by a pickup in production, according to data released Wednesday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the figure was near economists’ expectations.
Comment:
Daily Global Market Update
The Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.
Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.
Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.
US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
The Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.
Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.
Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.
US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
Comment:
We bought nasdaq 16334 again, but all positions still hedged.
Middle East tensions grow
Further tension in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher yesterday. ICE Brent managed to settle a little more than 3.1% higher on the day. Two car bomb explosions at a memorial for Qassem Soleimani (a senior Iranian general who was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq in 2020) left nearly 100 people dead. While it is not clear who was behind the attack, it only adds to the growing tensions in the region. In North Africa, Libya has also been forced to shut its largest oil field, Sharara, after protesters entered the field, which was producing around 270Mbbls/d ahead of the shutting.
Middle East tensions grow
Further tension in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher yesterday. ICE Brent managed to settle a little more than 3.1% higher on the day. Two car bomb explosions at a memorial for Qassem Soleimani (a senior Iranian general who was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq in 2020) left nearly 100 people dead. While it is not clear who was behind the attack, it only adds to the growing tensions in the region. In North Africa, Libya has also been forced to shut its largest oil field, Sharara, after protesters entered the field, which was producing around 270Mbbls/d ahead of the shutting.
Comment:
Short hedges still avtive
NQ will go deeper down.I will wait to cover more longs
ADP Number too high.
The market will wait till 5th January
NQ will go deeper down.I will wait to cover more longs
ADP Number too high.
The market will wait till 5th January
Comment:
US100 ENTRIES FOR SHORT,Longs All Trap Zones for 5th Jan.2023
CLICK ON THE CHART BELOW
CLICK ON THE CHART BELOW
Comment:
CORRECTION: WE HAVE STILL 2024, but On the title I wrote 2023. Sorryy.Updates are for Jan. 5th 2024
Comment:
we tickto our strategy
If you are short already ,stay bearish
not good time to buy nq now
SHORT HEDGE FROM16853 still active
non farm payroll very sstrong
waiting now for ISM 10 am est
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
If you are short already ,stay bearish
not good time to buy nq now
SHORT HEDGE FROM16853 still active
non farm payroll very sstrong
waiting now for ISM 10 am est
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
Comment:
we tickto our strategy
If you are short already ,stay bearish
not good time to buy nq now
SHORT HEDGE FROM16853 still active
non farm payroll very sstrong
waiting now for ISM 10 am est
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
If you are short already ,stay bearish
not good time to buy nq now
SHORT HEDGE FROM16853 still active
non farm payroll very sstrong
waiting now for ISM 10 am est
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
Comment:
Shorted SELL again16317 and 16378, and will short again 16452- 16520
based on Single prints. Waiting for 2p.m, news
Next short level (if posible 16520)
The long term investors now confirming that FED has no pressure to cut rates
with other wors, good news for the economy, softlanging, but less rate cuts exppectations. BUT we are at the first week of 2024
and we have 52 weeks ahead.
Always put stop loss limits, and have good money mange ment
based on Single prints. Waiting for 2p.m, news
Next short level (if posible 16520)
The long term investors now confirming that FED has no pressure to cut rates
with other wors, good news for the economy, softlanging, but less rate cuts exppectations. BUT we are at the first week of 2024
and we have 52 weeks ahead.
Always put stop loss limits, and have good money mange ment
Comment:
Short hedge still valid, as Triple tranche tests to solve them between 16330-13630 failed.
As the Fridays low was in the weaer area, and no important data released today, FED Mmber comments initiated the short term ralley.
Inflation data are expected during the next days
As the Fridays low was in the weaer area, and no important data released today, FED Mmber comments initiated the short term ralley.
Inflation data are expected during the next days
Comment:
i HEDGED EUROUSD short now here the main reasons based on myopinion
Inflation in Japan's capital keeps slowing, takes pressure off BOJ
Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the second straight month in December, data showed on Tuesday, taking some pressure off the central bank to rush into exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. The Tokyo inflation data, closely watched as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, is among key factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinise at the next policy-setting meeting on Jan. 22-23. Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in December from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast.
US dollar pulls back
The trend is still bullish, I see no reason yet to cut or hedge the longs(This is no recoammandation, so please do not copy my trades, as I write them here also for myown documentations!!!!! And always use stops, and sticktoyour own tradding strateies, as neither me nor others here are Moneyy and fundmanagers, who are allowed to give anyy trading advices nor we are in a CFTC authorities list. We just share our trading ideas, whatfor we tae respnossibility only. But not for your trades!!!) Also Fed’s Bowman Backs Eventual Rate Cuts If Inflation Falls Further
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation could fall toward the Fed’s 2% target with interest rates held at current levels, and offered potential backing for lowering borrowing costs if price pressures fade. “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2% goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said in prepared remarks to the South Carolina Bankers Association in Columbia. “We are not yet at that point,” she said, adding that she remains cautious with upside risks to ..
the staements, the current fundamentals and rate cuts expectations that are now on my opinion vanishing+technical side of NQ gives me enough reasons to stay short and keep my short hedges
Inflation in Japan's capital keeps slowing, takes pressure off BOJ
Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the second straight month in December, data showed on Tuesday, taking some pressure off the central bank to rush into exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. The Tokyo inflation data, closely watched as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, is among key factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinise at the next policy-setting meeting on Jan. 22-23. Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in December from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast.
US dollar pulls back
The trend is still bullish, I see no reason yet to cut or hedge the longs(This is no recoammandation, so please do not copy my trades, as I write them here also for myown documentations!!!!! And always use stops, and sticktoyour own tradding strateies, as neither me nor others here are Moneyy and fundmanagers, who are allowed to give anyy trading advices nor we are in a CFTC authorities list. We just share our trading ideas, whatfor we tae respnossibility only. But not for your trades!!!) Also Fed’s Bowman Backs Eventual Rate Cuts If Inflation Falls Further
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation could fall toward the Fed’s 2% target with interest rates held at current levels, and offered potential backing for lowering borrowing costs if price pressures fade. “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2% goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said in prepared remarks to the South Carolina Bankers Association in Columbia. “We are not yet at that point,” she said, adding that she remains cautious with upside risks to ..
the staements, the current fundamentals and rate cuts expectations that are now on my opinion vanishing+technical side of NQ gives me enough reasons to stay short and keep my short hedges
Comment:
Based on the urrent developement of price I stay short( temporariliy) unless the bullsshow their cards, if they will defend the mid trem trend, or if they lose control. To break it down please watch the streaming above.Thank you.
Comment:
16649 is day low, if breaking below it can go to 16631,if holds below that level, 16616.16495.16439,16357,etc. but have to break them first
www.tradingview.com/streams/bFr38RvNoW/