From previous posts i expected a spike to 14500, 14400 was hit instead before pukking lower. Shorting all spikes have worked great. Still expecting the 12.000 level. I will keep shorting the spikes.
Inflation expectation (green line) is exploding and no signs of mean reverting for now. Put/call ratio on the rise which indicates a more bearish sentiment. High gas prises which will give less disposable income which means that less money are available for buying goods. this will spill over to companies in the sense of less revenue. Tech stocks highly overpriced and are mean reverting = nasdaq100 goes lower.
Also we have the War which is still ongoing and FED have yet to hike rates.
over all, i see a downward trend. This is a bear market.
summarize: shorting all spikes. First level lower is 12000. (keep in mind that spikes are fast and painfull in a bear market, in the sense that we easily can get a spike of a couple of 100 point in short time on the day)
Inflation expectation (green line) is exploding and no signs of mean reverting for now. Put/call ratio on the rise which indicates a more bearish sentiment. High gas prises which will give less disposable income which means that less money are available for buying goods. this will spill over to companies in the sense of less revenue. Tech stocks highly overpriced and are mean reverting = nasdaq100 goes lower.
Also we have the War which is still ongoing and FED have yet to hike rates.
over all, i see a downward trend. This is a bear market.
summarize: shorting all spikes. First level lower is 12000. (keep in mind that spikes are fast and painfull in a bear market, in the sense that we easily can get a spike of a couple of 100 point in short time on the day)
Comment:
The crystal ball: A level of 12.700-12.800 before a spike up.