WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Short

United States Headed Towards A Recession?

TVC:US10Y   US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
The ten year yield peaks about 6 months to 14 months before two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a technical recession). Right now, from our peak in this current cycle we are 6 months divorced from a peak in the yield. Moreover, 3 year over 10 year yields inverted recently a signal that a recession is in the not too distant future. However, massive stimulus in the form of quantitative easing has significantly pushed down the 10 year yield distorting this market. Moreover, the 3 year over 10 year only inverted for around five trading days and is no longer inverted whereas the same ratio inverted for several months in 2000 and 2007. Overall, we are probably not going to see recession from Q2 into Q3 of 2019, but it is in our future whether its later this year or 2021.
do you mean early 2020 or 2021?
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WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3 bluegemsecurity
@bluegemsecurity, yeah 2020 or 2021. Hard to call the top of the market so 2021 is a bit more conservative.
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bluegemsecurity WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
@WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3, Thanks for sharing your insight. I agree with you.
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