So the 10Y Yield (USA) has a fib time zone that places a strong move in the afternoon of the 30th of this month. I feel like it goes without saying but this is when Q2 ends and if we have another quarter with a negative GDP - thanks to the braindead president's apocalyptic ineptitude - then we will enter a recession which for those unawares is just two quarters of negative GDP growth. This is also the date when the Personal Consumption Price Index data will drop which will give us a read on inflation. This particular index is the one that the FED favors for their inflation data. Needless to say this is going to be a huge huge move. I honestly cant imagine that the PCE is going to be in any way reassuring and I cant imagine that Q2 was profitable. The majority of rate hiking initiatives end in a recession and Powell was frankly far from reassuring when he said in the FOMC meeting that a softish landing is not guaranteed. Not a soft landing isn't guaranteed. A softISH. Without sounding like somebody's English teacher here reading a shit poem, this use of language shows where Powell - with his bedroom walls smothered with portraits of Paul Volcker - is at. He is clearly thinking - and has explicitly stated - that getting inflation under control is the top priority as much as this will be at the expense of the economy and the American people's purse which to the pessimist means purposefully inducing a recession. We should couple this with the fact that atm the downtrend in the SPX has been a pretty orderly sell off and hasn't really had that black candle to hell that we get from a major capitulation which is imo inevitable and the 30th would be absolutely perfect for that capitulation event so hold onto your hats folks and open shorts.
As for Bitcoin though we are at an interesting and slightly unnerving crossroads. BTC was created in the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis and since then the economy has been relatively ok in the most part. So if BTC fails 20k and falls below, not only does it fall below the previous market high which will be unprecedented in over a decade of its existence but also it will show that its not above a recession and will put the nail in the coffin in the "store of value" and "digital gold" camp for the foreseeable future and instead BTC will have proven not to fulfil its goal of being a currency that's recession and inflation proof and it will prove that it is just a speculative asset and a fad that will fade into nonexistence and the study of economics and computer science classes decades from now (probably taught in Russian). If it wasn't for the fact that a recession is unprecedently for BTC and that one seems inevitable, then I would be very bullish on BTC rn but I just cant afford to be. I do hope however that this will actually be the spark that ignites bull run and a decoupling from the stock market. This seems like an obvious time to be accumulating gold, silver and rubles and opening big fat shorts on the SPX. But this will definitely be a big oppurtunity for those will the balls and the brains to seize it if for the bullish or the bearish (more likely the latter imo).
As for Bitcoin though we are at an interesting and slightly unnerving crossroads. BTC was created in the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis and since then the economy has been relatively ok in the most part. So if BTC fails 20k and falls below, not only does it fall below the previous market high which will be unprecedented in over a decade of its existence but also it will show that its not above a recession and will put the nail in the coffin in the "store of value" and "digital gold" camp for the foreseeable future and instead BTC will have proven not to fulfil its goal of being a currency that's recession and inflation proof and it will prove that it is just a speculative asset and a fad that will fade into nonexistence and the study of economics and computer science classes decades from now (probably taught in Russian). If it wasn't for the fact that a recession is unprecedently for BTC and that one seems inevitable, then I would be very bullish on BTC rn but I just cant afford to be. I do hope however that this will actually be the spark that ignites bull run and a decoupling from the stock market. This seems like an obvious time to be accumulating gold, silver and rubles and opening big fat shorts on the SPX. But this will definitely be a big oppurtunity for those will the balls and the brains to seize it if for the bullish or the bearish (more likely the latter imo).
Comment:
I totally misread the data I had turns out that GDP doesn't drop until later (this month I think but that's off the top of my head). The 10Y has dropped like a stone when the PCE data dropped which was fairly positive. Slightly concerning that the market hasn't responded to this the way it should have but I still would be long biased rn on the whole. I think that the only reason why the SDX is dropping is because the Dollar is performing so well. The DXY is actually looking really nice rn too in fact I will drop a chart now explaining why.