S&P500: Trading plan towards the end of the year

S&P500 is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 72.156, MACD = 58.110, ADX = 59.863), a logical outcome considering the aggressive nature of November's rally. This rally is the HL rebound on the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up and is more effectively understood with the help of the Fibonacci levels and ranges.

The price has been trading all week inside the 0.382 - 0.236 Fibonacci range, a band that kickstarted pullbacks on December 1st 2022 and February 2nd 2023. Both were accompanied by a 1D MACD Bearish Cross and pulled back below the 1D MA50 and the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci Support Zone.

On the other hand when the June 15th 2023 rally crossed over the 0.236 Fibonacci level, the uptrend extended all the way to the top of the Channel Up.

Consequently we will buy if it crosses again over it and target the top (TP = 4,800) and sell if it crosses (and closes the 1D candle) under the 0.382 Fibonacci level and target the 0.618 Fib-1D MA50 band (TP = 4,410).

See how our prior idea has worked:

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