what to understand from this basic curve, what is the story we can ass of current time say about the market.
-Well first: the bull run ain’t over , until we break and have a clear sign of a real break of the trend channels, the bull run ain’t over and trying to short stocks before that clear sign is the dummest thing to do.
- the market will be favorable to a small correction on the current week or we will have an even biggest pump of the s&p (well if that occur it’s really alarming since at this point everything will be way overbought)
- the volatility is low meaning the market is not in a state of fear, we can explain this by the number of retail trader in the market, even if it’s true we tend to thing retail trader have the dumbest money and Fomos tend to quit fast the market, the current state of the market is euphoria everyone wants to get rich quick even us as institutional traders tend to make some bets when this market condition appear.
But volatility is low even if it’s a bad indicator since everyone is going long like fomos without calculating there risk or portfolio volatility
-the market will correct at some point to the other ascending channel, but that could also occur when a true fondamental catalyst will give favor to the bear. And that could also mean that the market bull bubble is still full of power.
So as of current time if you use the s&p500 as a trend philtre or a indice of the daily stock momemtum for day traders, right now would be a great time to take some profit out of your position , let some runners with stop loss to entry point. And when the s&p hit the down of the channel it would be a great time to seak for opportunities again.
-Well first: the bull run ain’t over , until we break and have a clear sign of a real break of the trend channels, the bull run ain’t over and trying to short stocks before that clear sign is the dummest thing to do.
- the market will be favorable to a small correction on the current week or we will have an even biggest pump of the s&p (well if that occur it’s really alarming since at this point everything will be way overbought)
- the volatility is low meaning the market is not in a state of fear, we can explain this by the number of retail trader in the market, even if it’s true we tend to thing retail trader have the dumbest money and Fomos tend to quit fast the market, the current state of the market is euphoria everyone wants to get rich quick even us as institutional traders tend to make some bets when this market condition appear.
But volatility is low even if it’s a bad indicator since everyone is going long like fomos without calculating there risk or portfolio volatility
-the market will correct at some point to the other ascending channel, but that could also occur when a true fondamental catalyst will give favor to the bear. And that could also mean that the market bull bubble is still full of power.
So as of current time if you use the s&p500 as a trend philtre or a indice of the daily stock momemtum for day traders, right now would be a great time to take some profit out of your position , let some runners with stop loss to entry point. And when the s&p hit the down of the channel it would be a great time to seak for opportunities again.