QUICK ANALYSIS: USDCAD: Could A Wave (3) Have Started?

In my previous post on this pair (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: USDCAD: Setting Up Wave (c) Down (Possilbe 500+ pips)"), I had projected that this wave 4 correction was just starting and could have a potential to yield 500+ pips on a move down. Recent PA has required me to reevaluate that possibility and seek another possible scenario. What you see above in the main chart is that alternate scenario. It is possible that with the recent price action, that wave 5 has started and that it is already into a wave (3) of 5. But we will need some more definitive price action to confirm this. If prices were to exceed and close above the ending of the wave 3 @ 1.32139, then that will give confirmation that wave 5 has started and we should see higher prices.

OVERVIEW - Daily Chart

SCENARIO #1 - Wave 4 Has Not Finished

CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
After capturing +189 pips profit on the Gartley trade (see Related Ideas: "TRADE CLOSED: UPDATE #2: USDCAD: Gartley TP1 + 2 HIT (+189 pips)"), I am now not in any positions on this pair. So now I am waiting for more confirmation as to whether wave 4 is over or not. If prices do exceed 1.32139 and close above, then I will wait for the completion of the butterfly patten before taking any positions LONG or SHORT. If prices are rejected at or before the 1.32139 point, then I will look to get SHORT on a continuation of the wave 4 down.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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