USD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data ( S&P Flash PMI this week) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
The USD has been reacting as a safe haven with recent US data, but the worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at fresh cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for them to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any dovish pivots seem unlikely for now.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. We do also want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, but based on where inflation is sitting any pivot seems still a while away and as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets will likely continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning looking stretched, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
CHF
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH
BASELINE
The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Any incoming data (especially inflation coming up early on Monday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data.
BIGGER PICTURE
The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means that the bias for the CHF has changed to bullish and we’ll be looking for big dips in the CHF for buying opportunities.
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data ( S&P Flash PMI this week) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
The USD has been reacting as a safe haven with recent US data, but the worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at fresh cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for them to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any dovish pivots seem unlikely for now.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. We do also want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, but based on where inflation is sitting any pivot seems still a while away and as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets will likely continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning looking stretched, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
CHF
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH
BASELINE
The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Any incoming data (especially inflation coming up early on Monday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data.
BIGGER PICTURE
The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means that the bias for the CHF has changed to bullish and we’ll be looking for big dips in the CHF for buying opportunities.