USDCHF Is it experiencing a pattern change?

FX_IDC:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the August 11 2022 Low. Such a long-term pattern is difficult to break but according to the 1D MACD and RSI indicators, the pair may be experiencing a pattern change.

As you can see, the 1D MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross, the lowest since July 27, which was soon after the last Lower Low on the Channel Down. Along with the fact that the 1D RSI breached through the 30.00 oversold barrier and rebounded exactly on the same level as the July 13 Low, we have a strong case for a new bottom, which is not consistent with a Channel Down Lower Low.

As a result a new Channel Up (dotted lines) may be emerging and our trading plan involves buying now at the (potential) Higher Low and targeting the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down at 0.91175, which is also Resistance 1.

If on the other hand Support 1 (0.85500) breaks, we will take the loss on the buy and go short instead, targeting the bottom of the Channel Down at 0.81250, which is also the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.


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