Its just funny to me that often people just read the book about harmonics, Elliott, etc. and believe it, not taking serious steps to just question the authority and doing their own research on real market charts.
Why do people believe this concepts so strongly?
They just believe because they believe that if they believe then everything will be OK. That is what I' calling "Fractal psychology" its about believing about believing.
For example:
Why do I believe that Gartley patterns works? Because its in the book!
Why do I believe that this book is telling the truth? Because I believe authority!
Why do I believe authority? Because I'm the authority which believes others authority!
Its just fractal loop, but in the psychological side of trading. This state will persist until there is a good amount of loses. This is more dangerous if its combined with a demo account or any other "theoretical trading" system and "mental stop loses", etc.
So, do am I upset about it?
No! Cause those losers who believes this, are giving money to those who wins and game goes on.
So why I'm writing this?
Its an invitation for those who wants just to stop being a loser and for those who wants win more, its that simple! It is not designed to upset anybody, but to inform about this simple fact, that Harmonics is not as its being presented in the books.
Of course this chart is specifically chosen for the purpose of making the point. Its telling you to just be careful, if you have read book or two about harmonics and Fibonacci or other strategy.
It encourages you to just question strategy and not simply prove that its working. Its encouraging you to just find out for yourself, how much it doesn't work and where are limitations and why.
In my trading I use harmonics, but it works because I see where and when to use it. On the chart clearly, the trend is down, but how do I know its down before the fact? This question have to be answered, if there is money to be made in real markets.
In my personal trading I discovered the real secret about harmonics, but almost nobody understand it how to use it, apply it to real markets. Traders just trade any patterns in hope of making money.
For me the great discovery was this simple fact, and this is a model so please don't take my words literally, cause we can only speak with models, nothing more but models and also nothing less than models.
The common fact is:
Formation "Whatever" works 70 percent of the time statistically speaking, so it works 7 times at the 10, and it doesn't work 3 times at the 10.
This is funny cause from this statement the fun begins. If you do not ask the next question before accepting this statistical "truth" then you are lost:
The wise question is about trend. Ask yourself any question involving trend, or put the question of formation in the context of the trend and, you will know what I'm talking about next:
1.In the UPTREND, BULLISH formation "Whatever" works 7 times at 10, but the BEARISH formation "Whatever" works only 3 times at 10.
2.In the DOWNTREND, BEARISH formation "Whatever" works 7 times at 10, but the BULLISH formation "Whatever" works only 3 times at 10.
Now I know why this is maybe the strongest advice in any good book "Trend is your friend!"
If you get this you will never put just lines of the formation without proper context. You will also know when to trade, and more important, when not to trade.
This was one of many discoveries that happened to me. I hope that it will shed some light at the important concepts about harmonics, and overall concept about building strategy, and if you will question this mini article and chart of mine, then I would be delighted, cause my mission is accomplished!
For simple ending we must just end this with proper psychological fractal statement:
QUESTION EVERYTHING, EVEN QUESTION HOW YOU ARE QUESTION!
Why do people believe this concepts so strongly?
They just believe because they believe that if they believe then everything will be OK. That is what I' calling "Fractal psychology" its about believing about believing.
For example:
Why do I believe that Gartley patterns works? Because its in the book!
Why do I believe that this book is telling the truth? Because I believe authority!
Why do I believe authority? Because I'm the authority which believes others authority!
Its just fractal loop, but in the psychological side of trading. This state will persist until there is a good amount of loses. This is more dangerous if its combined with a demo account or any other "theoretical trading" system and "mental stop loses", etc.
So, do am I upset about it?
No! Cause those losers who believes this, are giving money to those who wins and game goes on.
So why I'm writing this?
Its an invitation for those who wants just to stop being a loser and for those who wants win more, its that simple! It is not designed to upset anybody, but to inform about this simple fact, that Harmonics is not as its being presented in the books.
Of course this chart is specifically chosen for the purpose of making the point. Its telling you to just be careful, if you have read book or two about harmonics and Fibonacci or other strategy.
It encourages you to just question strategy and not simply prove that its working. Its encouraging you to just find out for yourself, how much it doesn't work and where are limitations and why.
In my trading I use harmonics, but it works because I see where and when to use it. On the chart clearly, the trend is down, but how do I know its down before the fact? This question have to be answered, if there is money to be made in real markets.
In my personal trading I discovered the real secret about harmonics, but almost nobody understand it how to use it, apply it to real markets. Traders just trade any patterns in hope of making money.
For me the great discovery was this simple fact, and this is a model so please don't take my words literally, cause we can only speak with models, nothing more but models and also nothing less than models.
The common fact is:
Formation "Whatever" works 70 percent of the time statistically speaking, so it works 7 times at the 10, and it doesn't work 3 times at the 10.
This is funny cause from this statement the fun begins. If you do not ask the next question before accepting this statistical "truth" then you are lost:
The wise question is about trend. Ask yourself any question involving trend, or put the question of formation in the context of the trend and, you will know what I'm talking about next:
1.In the UPTREND, BULLISH formation "Whatever" works 7 times at 10, but the BEARISH formation "Whatever" works only 3 times at 10.
2.In the DOWNTREND, BEARISH formation "Whatever" works 7 times at 10, but the BULLISH formation "Whatever" works only 3 times at 10.
Now I know why this is maybe the strongest advice in any good book "Trend is your friend!"
If you get this you will never put just lines of the formation without proper context. You will also know when to trade, and more important, when not to trade.
This was one of many discoveries that happened to me. I hope that it will shed some light at the important concepts about harmonics, and overall concept about building strategy, and if you will question this mini article and chart of mine, then I would be delighted, cause my mission is accomplished!
For simple ending we must just end this with proper psychological fractal statement:
QUESTION EVERYTHING, EVEN QUESTION HOW YOU ARE QUESTION!