With Opec + pledging to curb oil supply until the end of the year and Asia's economic recovery expected to expand again, we expect global oil inventories to fall by 70 million barrels over the next three months. As a result, we now see Brent averaging $91 / BBL in the second half, up from $81 / BBL previously. Still, our forecast for 2024 remains at $90 per barrel, thanks to an increase of 1.2 million BPD in non-OPEC supply from Guyana, Canada, U.S. shale, and Brazil. In addition, if sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are further eased, supply will increase by 450,000 BPD in 2024. As Opec + politics and global geopolitics allow, the increased supply will help restrain further price increases. Oil prices surged 3.50 per cent yesterday, with intraday highs above $95. After the opening of the morning, oil prices surged on the inertia, the high point entered the $95 mark, and the current pressure is below 94, and the momentum of turning the gun is still strong. In operation, it is still a reasonable choice to short the rally. Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bearish below 95.0, target 93.0-92.0; Low probability scenario: Bullish above 92.0, target 95.0-96.2.
