What can we learn from the previous 2 Bull Runs on Crude Oil?
Today, we will look at the weekly chart on Crude Oil, one of my favorite assets to trade due to the astonishing technical behavior, and how reliable it is when a trend is confirmed.
First, we will analyze this from a technical perspective:
- The price has broken a triangle pattern (ABCDE)
- After reaching the first resistance zone, we saw a breakout of the zone. (which works as a long term confirmation of our bullish view)
- Currently, the price is above the previous resistance zone (this is a relevant level to think in terms of corrections. Let see why in a second)
- The next level on the Weekly chart as a major target is the next resistance zone at 110.00
What can we learn from the previous 2 bull runs?
First Bull run: OCT 2001 - JUN 2008 / The main concept I want to show here is the middle correction between the two impulsive waves we can see on the chart. 182 correction (JUL 2006 - JAN 2007)
Second Bull run: JAN 2009 - MAY 2011 / In this bull run, we also saw a clear middle correction from MAR 2010 to MAY 2010 before the beginning of the next bullish impulse
Third Bull Run: APR 2020 - UNTIL present / Based on the previous situations, we can see that it is standard to observe a correction before the continuation of the bullish movement. Also, it's important to see that we are in the exact same zone where all these corrections happened in the past (around 78.00)
Key Takeaway: The price tends to follow previous situations or structures. This is something you can see on any chart that you have enough historical data to see this concept. What I'm observing now is that Crude Oil has rallied since APR 2020 without making a significant correction. Based on the behavior of similar BullRuns on the past + The current level, I'm open to a corrective movement that may happen now or may happen after the price reaches 90.00 USD per barrel. I will develop bullish setups after that. At the moment, I'm not interested in opening new long positions.
Also, consider that this may not happen. And in that case, I should develop a new filter according to the changing conditions.
Thanks for reading!
First, we will analyze this from a technical perspective:
- The price has broken a triangle pattern (ABCDE)
- After reaching the first resistance zone, we saw a breakout of the zone. (which works as a long term confirmation of our bullish view)
- Currently, the price is above the previous resistance zone (this is a relevant level to think in terms of corrections. Let see why in a second)
- The next level on the Weekly chart as a major target is the next resistance zone at 110.00
What can we learn from the previous 2 bull runs?
First Bull run: OCT 2001 - JUN 2008 / The main concept I want to show here is the middle correction between the two impulsive waves we can see on the chart. 182 correction (JUL 2006 - JAN 2007)
Second Bull run: JAN 2009 - MAY 2011 / In this bull run, we also saw a clear middle correction from MAR 2010 to MAY 2010 before the beginning of the next bullish impulse
Third Bull Run: APR 2020 - UNTIL present / Based on the previous situations, we can see that it is standard to observe a correction before the continuation of the bullish movement. Also, it's important to see that we are in the exact same zone where all these corrections happened in the past (around 78.00)
Key Takeaway: The price tends to follow previous situations or structures. This is something you can see on any chart that you have enough historical data to see this concept. What I'm observing now is that Crude Oil has rallied since APR 2020 without making a significant correction. Based on the behavior of similar BullRuns on the past + The current level, I'm open to a corrective movement that may happen now or may happen after the price reaches 90.00 USD per barrel. I will develop bullish setups after that. At the moment, I'm not interested in opening new long positions.
Also, consider that this may not happen. And in that case, I should develop a new filter according to the changing conditions.
Thanks for reading!