The larger box is a measurement of wave 2 correction, as I expect wave 4 correction to take a similar amount of time. Interestingly it suggests that WTI is likely to be in correction for the next 10 months.
In any case, from this point forward, if my analysis is correct, the only way from here is down. As a measured move, I believe it is likely to go to $57-58 area. The risk reward here is very attractive as stops can be placed above wave 3 high.
I believe the market is not expected to move very much in the short term due to Easter break so this idea should be valid until the end of next week.
Simply sharing my opinion, this is not a trade call.
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Moving as expected.
First impulse completed. Now time for ABC. I think it is likely to be able to reach the upper channel in blue - around $64 mark. I am not looking for buys though. Only sell sell sell until at least $58 (can easily go lower but we will evaluate the position once we get there).
ABC completed and as expected, almost exactly at the $64 mark. From here the picture gets a bit fuzzy as I suspect OIL is likely to make a more complex WXY correction.
Trading plan: Sell at rallies and reduce position size, until a clearer signal is generated.