Hi,
I just thought I would share this trade entered over the past 2 days. I'm not quite sure show it will turn out just yet.
Despite OPEC signalling it will reduce output and international sanctions reducing supply, the chart said down so I entered short. I just wanted to share some thoughts on expectations. Black is the primary (more pessimistic count) and blue is the more optimistic count. After a steep drop we are hanging out for a bit so that I can post and go through best-case / worst-case scenarios
Black: We are in wave C down and either it will go up from (wave C finished) here or only down a bit more after a period of consolidation (in wave iv of wave C).
Blue: We are somewhere in wave 3 down in the 5 wave correction to complete corrective wave A before a rally followed by a deep drop.
Best-case scenario: As we saw in late September, when the drop starts, it will not be held up for anything and the smaller-scale wave count quickly became unworkable as the price drop blew through all short-term estimates / predictions. My best case scenario is for the price to head directly for sub$32 a barrel to complete a 1:1 extension of a larger degree corrective wave ($77 to $42 Sept to December 2018) to complete the correction. If that happens I would look for exposure to commodity index funds as they tend to be significantly exposed to the energy sector (and the only way to go from there would be up).
As always, the count will end up to be different as events unfolds but I hope it continues down.
Why do I think its going down? I think growing indications of a global slow-down is overcoming the reductions in supply (as happened last year as well).
I just thought I would share this trade entered over the past 2 days. I'm not quite sure show it will turn out just yet.
Despite OPEC signalling it will reduce output and international sanctions reducing supply, the chart said down so I entered short. I just wanted to share some thoughts on expectations. Black is the primary (more pessimistic count) and blue is the more optimistic count. After a steep drop we are hanging out for a bit so that I can post and go through best-case / worst-case scenarios
Black: We are in wave C down and either it will go up from (wave C finished) here or only down a bit more after a period of consolidation (in wave iv of wave C).
Blue: We are somewhere in wave 3 down in the 5 wave correction to complete corrective wave A before a rally followed by a deep drop.
Best-case scenario: As we saw in late September, when the drop starts, it will not be held up for anything and the smaller-scale wave count quickly became unworkable as the price drop blew through all short-term estimates / predictions. My best case scenario is for the price to head directly for sub$32 a barrel to complete a 1:1 extension of a larger degree corrective wave ($77 to $42 Sept to December 2018) to complete the correction. If that happens I would look for exposure to commodity index funds as they tend to be significantly exposed to the energy sector (and the only way to go from there would be up).
As always, the count will end up to be different as events unfolds but I hope it continues down.
Why do I think its going down? I think growing indications of a global slow-down is overcoming the reductions in supply (as happened last year as well).
Trade closed manually:
I suffer from weak hands, I closed but am looking to re-enter