US OIL - short term update

G'day,

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers.

Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move.

Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily


Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.


Monthly

• Reactive tap of the OL supply since 2008.
  
• 2008 showed a steep curve sell off between 2008-09, however price had a tow year weak curve to battle back weekly and monthly zones to create a lower high upon the monthly. The final zone correlates to a bi-monthly zone **
  
• Since the reactive tap of the OL, the monthly closes have still indicated a higher close on the months following.
  

Where does this leave price now on the monthly?
The reactive sell will ensure that supply imbalance has taken over. What this means using confirmation rules, price will look to retest and fail to penetrate the zone with a strong corrective final structural move which nets within the zone.

Where a monthly failure of the OL exists, then a sell in high probable to create a low curve.


** reference to 2008 analysis of steep high curve

Weekly

• Price peaked at the OL and as the supply or arrival zone is tapped, price has probability with confirm rules of CP and candle patterns to spot to take a measured sell.
  
• The PCP level is now obtainable where the high curve can, with failure to create higher highs within the structure and reactive sells upon the daily, will indicate an opportunity to sell. Since the FL is untested, orders from the supply provide a control for the swing term length of a trade.
  
• Upon the sell closure the Curve suggests at present the high probability of an arrival between $92-96.5 where a long opportunity favours buyers as the FL here still has >70% probability as the arrival has yet to be penetrated.
  

Daily

• The rising channel has offered buying opportunities and created the necessary confirmations needed to create the structure required on a curve correction to retest the high.
  
• PCP level is now identifiable placed at $112-117 zone, showing the supply engulfing, corrective and retest confirm structure can play out.
  
• The overall destination is towards the range bottom of the curve, creating a low curve, offering the hedge sell for long buys.
  

Trade opportunities
Bearish move is upon a rejection of the PCP formation
Bullish move from a break of trend and retest - creating the long opportunity for a measured buy towards the OL.

USD CAD for a commodity pair outlook

Weekly

• Buying opportunities are highly probable towards 1.26 as the lower high formation needs to be completed subject to a sell off for the pair as the weekly zone shows a OL deep correction is now in play.
  
• The reversion zone shows between 1.24-1.25 as a destination.
  

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• Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
  
• Focus on technical output not fundamentals
  
• Focus on investing for long term positional moves
  
• Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
  

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Thanks,
LVPA MMXXII